[Launch Alert] Mystery "Launch"

[Launch Alert]

As of this morning, I would like to end any further discussion of the mystery "launch" reported on the evening of November 8th. I have determined that what was seen that evening is not a mystery and it was not a launch.

Also, please do not send me any further e-mails on this subject.

There has been speculation on the Internet that the event was a missile launch from a Chinese submarine.

If a foreign power covertly entered the waters adjacent to the U.S. mainland and launched a missile, it wouldn't necessarily be an act of war, but it would be a major provocation. A provocation of that type could actually backfire by increasing U.S. fears over Chinese naval power in the Pacific. That could lead to a build up of the U.S. Navy's anti-submarine warfare capability.

During the Cold War, the U.S. Navy was able to locate, track, and if necessary, kill Soviet ballistic missile submarines at sea. As a matter of fact, U.S. attack submarines (subs designed to hunt and kill other subs) reportedly would lurk submerged and meet up with Soviet subs shortly after they left port and follow the Soviet subs undetected for extended periods of time. Furthermore, land-based and carrier-based U.S. Navy anti-submarine warfare aircraft such as the P-3 and S-3 could also detect, track, and kill Soviet submarines.

It is reasonable to assume that the U.S. Navy has at least a partial ability track the movements of Chinese submarines. Furthermore, U.S. early warning satellites and radars (such as PAVE PAWS radar at Beale AFB in northern California) provide the U.S. military with the ability to immediately detect, pinpoint, and track missile launches at sea. The Navy probably also still has a formidable anti-submarine warfare capability that would allow it to quickly locate and kill hostile submarines.

Therefore, I think the assertion that the event of last week was a Chinese weapons test to be highly unlikely.

Again, please do not send me any further e-mails about the supposed mystery launch.

Brian Webb