[Launch Alert] Launch On Schedule

Sat Oct 17 08:55:05 EDT 2009

                             LAUNCH ALERT

                              Brian Webb
                     Ventura County, California
                         kd6nrp at earthlink.net
                     http://www.spacearchive.info

                              2009 October 17 (Saturday) 05:49 PDT
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                         LAUNCH ON SCHEDULE

Sunday morning's launch of an Atlas V rocket carrying a military
weather satellite from Vandenberg Air Force Base appears to be on
schedule.

The Atlas is slated to lift-off from Space Launch Complex-3 East on
south Vandenberg at 9:12 a.m. PDT, the start of a 10-minute launch
window.

Although the Air Force predicts an 80% probability of weather within
acceptable limits for launch, the forecast also calls for fog and a
visibility of 1 mile at the launch site.

The forecast also predicted the following cloud cover at launch:

    Stratus 7/8ths from 500 to 1500 feet

    Cirrus 3/8ths from 22,000 to 25,000 feet

Given the predicted fog and low clouds at the launch site, the basic
strategy for viewing this launch is to get near south base and move
inland or go up in altitude to avoid the fog and low clouds. For
details regarding weather and launch viewing, go to:

   www.spacearchive.info/vafbview.htm

This may be the final Launch Alert that you will receive before
launch. Please go to the following page for launch and countdown
status:

   www.spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av017/status.html

Please note that because of my schedule, it will be difficult for me
to answer all of your questions regarding this launch.

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                         LAUNCH RESOURCES

For further information about Sunday's launch, use the following
resources:

Launch/Countdown Status

   www.spaceflightnow.com/atlas/av017/status.html

Launch/Countdown Webcast

Go to the following location and click the Webcast tab on the left:

   www.ulalaunch.com

Vandenberg Launch Viewing

   www.spacearchive.info/vafbview.htm

   www.vandenberg.af.mil (go to "Questions")

Launch Booklet

Detailed information about the launch is available at:

    www.ulalaunch.com/index_launch_info.html

Photographing Vandenberg Launches

    www.spacearchive.info/vafbphoto.htm

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                        MOLCZAN'S COMMENTS

Independent space analyst Ted Molczan recently commented on Sunday's
launch on the See-Sat Internet discussion group. The following are
selected excerpts from his post:

"The launch vehicle's performance far exceeds mission requirements; so
much so, that its Centaur stage will be disposed of in an unusual
manner: a heliocentric orbit. That burn will be visible from parts of
Europe about 3 h after launch, followed within minutes by the dump of
any remaining propellant."

"On the first pass of Europe, beginning near 17:30 UTC, the Centaur is
likely to lead the DMSP by several seconds in time.

One rev later, at 19:10:07 UTC, while northbound over ~30 N, 6 E, the
Centaur will begin a 220 s burn. At 170 s into the burn, it will reach
escape velocity. By the end of the burn, it will have considerably
exceeded escape velocity, by 1 or 2 km/s, I estimate."

"The blow down will begin at 19:17:14 UTC, and will last for more than
13 min."

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                        E-MAIL CONSIDERATIONS

1. Launch-Related Questions

   Many questions about launch viewing can be answered by re-reading
   your Launch Alert or consulting:

      www.vandenberg.af.mil (go to "Questions")

      www.spacearchive.info/vafbview.htm

   For information regarding photographing launches, go to:

      www.spacearchive.info/vafbphoto.htm

2. Address Changes, Subscribing, and Unsubscribing

   This is a self-service newsletter and subscribers are responsible
   for managing their subscriptions. For information on changing your
   address, subscribing, or unsubscribing, go to:

      www.spacearchive.info/newsletter.htm

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   with your password is automatically sent to you at the start of
   each month.

   If you have made a good faith effort to manage your subscription,
   but are still having problems, please contact me at
   kd6nrp at earthlink.net.

3. Photographs

   If you have a launch or other photo that you would like to submit
   for publication on my web site, please observe the following
   guidelines:

       - Only submit images that are of publication quality or are in
         some way unique.

       - Limit the total size of your e-mail plus attachments to 1 MB

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