[Launch Alert] Scud Launch Seen

[Brian Webb]

		ASTRONOMY/SPACE ALERT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
 				  
				Brian Webb, KD6NRP
			  Ventura County, California
			 E-mail: kd6nrp@earthlink.net
		Web Site: http://home.earthlink.net/~kd6nrp
 				       
					   2002 November 16 (Saturday) 08:35 PST
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			VANDENBERG AFB SCUD LAUNCH SEEN

During the past several weeks, I've been asked about the Scud missile
launches scheduled to take place this year from Vandenberg AFB. With
little advanced notice to the public or news media, the first Scud was
launched from Vandenberg on Thursday morning at 11:25 PST. My
co-workers and I were lucky enough to see this event from more than
100 miles away.

Although my office is 115 statue miles (185 kilometers) southeast of
the launch site, and daytime liquid fuel missiles launches are
difficult to see, I decided to look for the launch anyway. The weather
was very clear and I figured that the liquid-fueled Scud would briefly
produce a vapor trail as it passed through the contrail zone, an area
between 40,000 to 45,000 feet altitude*.

The launch window opened at 10:00 PST, but the launch was delayed
until 11:25. Just before launch I went over to my coworker's cubicle
that has a west-facing window. We were scanning the western horizon
when somebody asked, "What's that?"

Sure enough, there was a thin, white, squiggly contrail - typical of a
missile launch. The contrail was curved and arced away from the coast
towards the west-southwest. Unlike an aircraft contrail, this one
immediately began to dissipate and become more and more transparent.
After three minutes or so, it was invisible.

I either saw the Scud as it was actually producing the contrail or a
few seconds after it exited the contrail zone. It was rather
interesting.

*The height of the contrail zone varies with the prevailing weather
conditions. On Thursday I guessed that it was between 40,000 and 45,000
feet.

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			SCUD NEWS STORY

Last Monday, KCLU-FM aired a news story about the Vandenberg AFB Scud
launches. An MP3 audio file of the story is posted at:

	http://home.earthlink.net/~kd6nrp/library.htm

Look for the link titled "scud.mp3".

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			LOW-TECH ASTRONOMY

In this issue, I'm introducing a section called "Low-Tech Astronomy".
My purpose is to point out things to you can see in the sky without a
telescope.

The two brightest planets are visible to the naked eye before dawn.
Jupiter, the largest planet, looks like a bright, white star. It can be
found very high (almost over head) in the west. It's easy to identify
because it's the second brightest object in the entire sky.

The brightest object is low in the east. This dazzling, white, star-
like object is actually the planet Venus. Since it's currently close to
the Earth, Venus' crescent shape is visible in binoculars.

To get the best binocular view of Venus, mount your binoculars on a
tripod. If you don't have a tripod, you can lean against the corner of
a house or a light pole for extra stability.

You further improve your binocular view of Venus by waiting to observe
it against a bright dawn sky. This reduces the glare from the planet's
dazzling disk.

Something else that you can see without a telescope is the annual
Leonid meteor, which reaches it peak this Tuesday morning. Although the
Moon might interfere with the view, the Leonids may still be worth
watching. For more information, go to:

		http://www.spaceweather.com

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		   The following is a NASA news release

		NASA PREPARES FOR "LAST CHANCE" METEOR SHOWER

The last best chance this century to observe spectacular Leonid meteor
showers is the mission of a NASA research aircraft that departs for
Spain on Friday.

"Even with the full moon, this year's Leonids will probably be better 
than any other for the next hundred years," said Dr. Don Yeomans, an 
astronomer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "If 
you're ever going to see them, this might be the year to try."

A team of 42 astrobiologists from seven countries departs from 
southern California's Edwards Air Force Base on a mission to Spain to 
observe this year's two Leonid storm peaks. Their DC-8 Airborne 
Laboratory, operated by NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards,
Calif., carries high-speed cameras, a radio receiver to listen to upper
atmosphere molecules, and a team of meteor observers, who will keep
track of the meteor activity for satellite operators concerned about
impact hazards.

The Leonids are grains of dust from comet Tempel-Tuttle colliding into
the Earth's atmosphere. Most Leonid particles are tiny and will
vaporize very high in the atmosphere due to their extreme speed (about
44 miles per second, or almost 71 km/sec). Earth intersects the comet's
debris trail each November, but the intensity of the year's Leonid
meteor shower depends on whether Earth ploughs through a particularly
concentrated stream of dust within the broader debris trail.

Although the meteors are harmless to people, there is a slight chance 
that a satellite could be damaged if it was hit by a Leonid meteoroid.
The Leonids are moving so fast that they vaporize on impact, forming a
cloud of electrified gas called plasma. There is a risk that a Leonid-
generated plasma cloud could cause a short circuit in a satellite,
damaging sensitive electronic components.

A modified NKC135-E aircraft, operated by the 418th Flight Test 
Squadron at Edwards Air Force Base, will travel parallel to the NASA 
aircraft to provide stereoscopic observations and spectroscopic 
measurements of mid-infrared and optical meteor emissions.

The researchers will observe the first storm peak on Nov. 18 at 11 
p.m. EST, just after departing from Torrejon Air Force Base in Spain. 
They will observe the second storm at 5:30 a.m. EST on Nov. 19 over
the Great Lakes, en route to Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska.

Researchers think meteors might have showered the Earth with the 
molecules necessary for life's origin. The two-aircraft campaign, led 
by astronomer Peter Jenniskens of the SETI Institute and NASA's Ames 
Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif., will investigate this 
possibility.  "We are looking for clues about the diversity of comets 
and their impact on the chemistry of life's origin on Earth," 
Jenniskens said.

Minimizing the threat meteoroids pose to satellites is the second 
major area of NASA's Leonid research. The research data from the 
Leonids shower will be analyzed to help NASA engineers refine their 
forecasts for spacecraft; by better determining where, when, and how 
the meteors will strike, NASA can improve protective measures to 
prevent or minimize damage to spacecraft. 

The scientific effort involves NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C., 
and NASA centers including Ames, Dryden, Goddard Space Flight Center, 
Greenbelt, Md., the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space 
Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala.

For more information, including predicted peak times for major cities 
and NASA media contacts, refer to: 

http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2002/1114leonid.html

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			VANDENBERG AFB LAUNCH SCHEDULE
			   As of 2002 November 16

It looks like observers in Arizona, Nevada, and Utah might have a
spectacular dusk launch on December 19th. Unfortunately, if lift-off
occurs on time, the Sun will be just above the horizon observers in
western California.

		Launch
		Time/Window
Date		(PST/PDT)		Vehicle

NOV-DEC	Unknown		Scud
Vehicle will be launched on a ballistic (non-orbital) trajectory.
Second of two Scud launches as part of a program to compile a better
database of Scud flight characteristics using advanced sensors
at Vandenberg.  The data will be used to improve the Patriot missile
system

DEC		Unknown		Minuteman II
Vehicle will send unarmed warhead and decoys on ballistic (non-orbital)
trajectory to the central Pacific. Objects will be launched for the
IFT-10 missile defense test. An interceptor launched from the Marshall
Islands will attempt to kill the warhead. 

DEC 15	06:18			Titan II
Payload is Coriolis military R&D satellite. Morning twilight launch

DEC 19	16:45-17:30		Delta II
Payload is ICESAT environmental and CHIPSAT astronomical satellites.
Evening twilight launch for Nevada, Arizona, and Utah - could be
spectacular

MAR		00:01-06:01		Peacekeeper
ICBM test launch (non-orbital). Payload is two unarmed warheads.
Impact area is near Kwajalein in the central Pacific. GT-32PA 

MAR		Unknown		Pegasus XL
Payload is OrbView 3 commercial reconnaissance satellite. Pegasus will
be air-launched from an L-1011 staged from Vandenberg AFB 

MAR 1		Unknown		Pegasus XL
Payload is SciSat 1 ozone monitoring satellite. Pegasus will be air-
launched from an L-1011 staged from Vandenberg AFB

APR 24	09:44			Delta II
Payload is the Gravity Probe-B scientific satellite