[KYHAM] FW: Courier-Journal: Big quake could hammer Kentucky

[Ron Dodson]

Subject: Courier-Journal: Big quake could hammer Kentucky 

Sunday, October 30, 2005

Big quake could hammer Kentucky 
Effect on Louisville would be limited 
By Michael A. Lindenberger
The Courier-Journal

An earthquake as powerful as the one in South Asia that has claimed an
estimated 80,000 lives could strike along the New Madrid Fault, experts
say, causing severe damage in Western Kentucky but much more limited
damage in Louisville. 
Property damage in Louisville, even from a quake more powerful than the
7.6-magnitude one in Asia on Oct. 8, would be limited to $160 million.
The quake would also displace 250 households and hospitalize as many as
100 people, according to a computer simulation by the city. 

Unreinforced masonry buildings on softer ground near the river would
sustain cracked walls and broken windows, and sewer and gas pipes could
rupture, local officials and seismologists said. 

By contrast, the flooding in March 1997 caused between $250 million and
$500 million in property damage throughout Kentucky, according to
Louisville's recently completed hazard mitigation plan. 

For Western Kentucky, damage from a quake is expected to be more severe
than in other regions of the state because it is closer to the New
Madrid Fault, which runs near New Madrid, Mo. 

That fault spawned a series of quakes that rocked the Midwest in
1811-12. At an estimated 8.0 magnitude, the most powerful of those
quakes changed the course of the Mississippi River and are said to have
rung church bells in Boston. 
No one can predict quakes, but history shows the region is vulnerable. 
"It's not a question of if, but when and how severe," said Steve
Oglesby, earthquake program manager for the Kentucky Emergency
Management Agency. 

Prompted by the Pakistan earthquake, Maxwell Clay Bailey, the former Air
Force lieutenant general who heads the Kentucky Emergency Management
Agency, said he has asked his staff to begin reviewing statutes
regarding building codes in Kentucky. 
Bailey said the agency may seek changes during the 2006 legislative
session to toughen building standards beyond what was done in the 1980s.
But he and Oglesby stressed that government can do only so much to help
prepare Kentucky for a major earthquake. 
"What role does government bear? What roles do private property owners,
and businesses, have?" Oglesby said. 

Scott Janes, 33, a manager for one of 18 Miles Farm Supply Co. stores in
Kentucky, said he believes his Owensboro-based company is ready for a
quake. 
"But we may need to take a look at it again," he said. Miles conducts
monthly safety checks to gauge its preparedness for a disaster and keeps
fertilizer and other chemicals in concrete-reinforced tanks, Janes said.


Despite Western Kentucky's proximity to the fault, Bardwell pharmacist
Greg Wright said he does not fret about the possibility of an
earthquake. 
"It's not a primary concern," said Wright, 44, of Paducah. "I know it
always has that possibility, but it is not something we worry about. You
don't hear many people discussing it." 

Location matters 
Small Kentucky towns near the Mississippi River, such as Bardwell and
Wickliffe, have the greatest risk of devastation because they are built
on softer soil and are near the fault. Henderson, Owensboro and Paducah
could also see catastrophic damage if a very powerful quake struck along
the fault. "In my estimation, this would be the Katrina of Kentucky,"
said Paducah-based Bob Carrico, one of 14 regional emergency management
directors for Kentucky. "A major earthquake is the one threat that could
. bring normal daily life to a halt." 
Western Kentucky officials said they have been preparing for "the big
one" for years, but admit that won't be enough to protect life and
property from a major earthquake centered nearby.
 
Those preparations have included efforts to update communication
systems, special training for emergency responders, and in some
communities citywide inventories of older, more vulnerable buildings.
"We've been told that if Henderson were to sustain maybe a 6.5 to 7.0
magnitude quake, we could expect buildings to come down," said Larry
Koerber, Henderson County emergency management director. 

Owensboro city manager Bob Whitmer said that in the weeks since
Hurricane Katrina officials and first responders have met with
businesses, utilities and hospitals to discuss the city's worst-case
scenario -- a powerful quake in the dead of winter. 
Buildings could collapse, utilities could fail, and Owensboro's 54,000
residents could be cut off from outside help for days, he said. 

Carrico said the gaseous diffusion plant near Paducah has its own
emergency preparedness staff and has spent money in recent years to
retrofit portions of the plant to better withstand a major earthquake. 
What are the odds? 
The University of Memphis has predicted there is a 7 percent to 10
percent chance of a quake of at least 7.5 to 8.0 magnitude striking
within the next 50 years. 
A smaller quake, of 6.0 to 6.5 magnitude, has an "extremely high
probability" of striking in that time, said John Kiefer, a scientist and
assistant director of the Kentucky Geological Survey at the University
of Kentucky. 

A 5.0 magnitude quake could cause serious but isolated damage to poorly
constructed buildings. A 6.0 quake can cause severe damage in
communities up to 60 miles or so from the quake, according to the
Central United States Earthquake Consortium in Memphis. Anything over
7.0 magnitude is considered a "major earthquake" and can cause
devastation across large areas, according to the consortium. But a
quake's strength is only one factor that would determine how damaging it
would be, said Jim Wilkinson, the consortium's director. Just as
important would be where it was centered in the massive New Madrid
Seismic Zone, he said.
 
Louisville sewers vulnerable 
In Louisville, most of the $160 million in predicted property damage
would affect residences, according to the Louisville hazard mitigation
plan, a document prepared by the Louisville/Jefferson County Information
Consortium to help the city get ready for a range of hazards.  "I do see
that there are a lot of unreinforced masonry buildings there, and they
could see a fair amount of damage," Kiefer said. That damage, he said,
would likely be limited to cracked walls, broken windows and other
problems. 
An earthquake could damage Louisville's 3,000 miles of sewer pipes --
some of which have been in use since the mid-1800s, said Metropolitan
Sewer District Executive Director Bud Schardein. The oldest pipes,
including those downtown made of brick and stone, would likely survive
largely intact, as would the plastic pipes installed in recent decades. 

But some of the terra cotta sewers installed decades ago would likely
shatter in a big earthquake, potentially disrupting sewage flow in large
areas of the city. MSD, he said, is prepared to respond if that occurs
by rerouting flows. 
Chip Keeling, vice president of communications for LG&E Energy, said
it's impossible to know how much of his company's 6,000 miles of natural
gas pipelines in Louisville and elsewhere in Kentucky would rupture.
"If we have a 7.0 earthquake or something similar and it strikes in our
territory, it's going to cause widespread damage," he said. "But if that
were to happen, we have a disaster plan and we would respond
immediately." He said Louisville's energy supply has built-in
"redundancies" so that even if large amounts of its infrastructure were
temporarily disabled, energy distribution would not likely be completely
cut off. 
As for major buildings, experts say even a large earthquake would be
unlikely to cause serious structural damage to downtown skyscrapers like
the Humana Building. 
Workers are more at risk of injuries from falling items, they say. 
But Humana spokesman Dick Brown said safety rules inside the building,
which opened in 1985, keep heavy items off high shelves, and every
employee is trained on how to respond during an earthquake.
 
"The safety manuals spell out that they should get under a heavy desk to
prevent injuries from a falling light fixture or ceiling tiles," Brown
said. "They are also warned to not go outside during an earthquake."  He
said each floor of the building has a safety coordinator who attends a
meeting at least once a year to discuss disaster response roles and
shares that training with co-workers. 
Quake preparedness - Louisville has established goals for making the
city more prepared for a major earthquake, said Chad Carlton, spokesman
for Metro Mayor Jerry Abramson. 

Among the goals are: 
For the Jefferson County property valuation administrator to collect
additional building data for structures built before more stringent
building codes were adopted in the early 1980s.  To launch a citywide
inventory of public buildings that are more prone to earthquakes, an
effort that should be completed by 2008. 
By 2008, complete more extensive soil studies for the portion of
downtown where most of the city's high-rises are located. Kiefer said
the focus by state and federal officials on earthquakes has suffered
since the Federal Emergency Management Agency was made part of the
Department of Homeland Security. 
"Kentucky's earthquake program is almost nonexistent," he said, with
officials responsible for a wide range of disasters. For example, he
said, the Governor's Council on Earthquake Risk Reduction, established
by former Gov. Paul Patton, has stopped functioning -- and should be
revived. The council was established in 2000 to bring together
scientists and emergency planners to focus on earthquake preparedness. 
Oglesby and Bailey conceded that the council has not met recently, and
Bailey said he would consider revitalizing it to give the scientific
community more input on earthquake readiness measures. 

Bailey said that the state in recent years has, like many others,
switched its focus to preparing an approach that emphasizes readiness
across a range of potential disasters, rather than focusing only on
individual hazards. 
Oglesby said he believes people and businesses also need to take
responsibility for themselves. Homeowners should secure heavy items.
Businesses should explore shoring up vulnerable structures and ensure
that heavy furniture and bookshelves won't tip over. 
"In earthquakes throughout U.S. history, more people have been killed by
falling objects than by buildings that collapsed," Oglesby said. "Most
of the time it is a television falling onto someone, or something like
that." 

-------------- next part --------------
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.1.362 / Virus Database: 267.12.6/151 - Release Date: 10/28/2005