[KYHAM] SCENARIO SET 2002

[Ron Dodson]

Attached is the 2002 SET  Scenario with a
compressed timeline for the Simulated
Emergency Test that we will be doing on Saturday morning,
October 5.

This year, as previously mentioned, we will be doing a
weather scenario based drill. I wish to express my
appreciation to Norm Reitmeyer and Van DeWald of the
Louisville NWS office
in assisting me with coordinating this project state-wide
with the NWS offices.  I also wish to thank our resident
"Storm Boy" and "Ky Ham of the Year", Pat Spencer, KD4PWL
for an excellent job on the scenario layout and text.

With this in hand, you should be able to determine the
correct role in the overall operation for your respective
area or community.  Feel free to expand with message traffic

or anything you or your local NWS office wishes to do as a
part of the SET.  Those who regularly perform NCS duties in
their respective NWS offices during spotter activations will

be working closely with those folks in their facilities to
accomplish this.

One thing, REMEMBER to head any message as
"Test" or "DRILL MESSAGE". Likewise NCS stations should
regularly announce that this is only an exercise, that no
severe weather is actually occurring.  We do not want to
scare any SWL's and scanner hobbyists out there.  KEN will
go into session at 8:20 AM CDT/9:20 AM EDT on 7.228 MHz. to
work with any needed coordinative tasks before we kick off
the SET in western Ky at 8:30 CDT/9:30 EDT. and will remain
in session until ALL stations are finished with any activity

across the state.  Should the NWS offices decide they would
like to try an HF Station in their facility, I ask that you
work with them to accomplish this so they can see how it
would work and if they might feel a need to add one to their

own "wish list".  They might even like to see if they can
talk from NWS office to NWS office as a back up to their
regular comms.

ALSO NOTE!!!
NOAA Weather Radio (162.400-.550 MHz) WILL NOT BE A PART OF
THE SET!  All SET traffic will be via amateur radio bands
only.

SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER ACTUALLY BE OCCURRING on Oct. 5, we
will delay the drill until the following weekend Oct. 12!

==============================
Kentucky Amateur Radio Emergency Service
Simulated Emergency Test � October 5, 2002
Pat Spencer, KD4PWL
Reviewed by Norm Reitmeyer, Warning Coordinator, Lou. NWS

***

General Climatic Factors:
October 4, 2002:
- A powerful upper air weather disturbance begins to move
east out of the Rocky Mountains.
- As a result strong low pressure stalled over the central
Plains also begins to move east.
- Southerly winds ahead of the surface low pressure are
drawing north very warm moist air into
   the Plains and Mississippi Valley.
- Supercell thunderstorms develop over parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma, with severe storms  reported, including several
large tornadoes.
- With the arrival of nightfall, lines of thunderstorms
persist from Nebraska to Texas. Slow eastward movement of
lines of storms produces widespread flooding.

October 5, 2002
- Weather systems begin tracking more quickly to the east.
The intensifying low pressure moving     into Arkansas and
Missouri draws increasingly warm moist air into the Ohio
Valley. At the      same time quite chilly air for early
autumn pours south behind the storm system into the
northern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, dropping
temperatures in those areas into the 50s.

Timeline: (Compressed somewhat to keep the duration of the
full exercise within limits)

Opportunities are presented below for local operators to
interject traffic to NWS.  Inform local coordinators of this
so they can prepare local SET scenarios if they chose to.
This will allow maximum communications between the various
local areas and their corresponding NWS Offices.  Local
operators may interject traffic of their own creation as
well.   Additionally make this available to NWS offices so
they can be ready to interject any traffic they would like.

Beginning Interval: October 5, 2002  8:00 AM CDT ( 9:00 AM
EDT)
* Storm Predication Center in Norman Oklahoma has issued a
convective outlook of high risk for an area covering western
and some of central Kentucky.  SPC has issued an area of
moderate risk for the remainder of Kentucky.
* Tornado watches are issued for areas 1,2,3,4,5,6, 12, 13,
and 14.  Severe Thunderstorm watches are issued for areas 7,
8, 9, 10 and 11.
* Storms are proceeding through the county warning areas of
the Paducah and Memphis NWS Offices in eastern Missouri and
Arkansas.  Flash flood, severe thunderstorm and  tornado
warnings have been issued in many counties.

Interval 1: Saturday Oct. 5, 2002 - 8:30 AM CDT (9:30 AM
EDT)
*  NWS Paducah activates storm spotters in westernmost
counties.
*  Storms enter Kentucky � severe thunderstorm warnings
issued for most of Area 1 with the exception of Calloway
County where there is a tornado on the ground 10 miles
northwest of Murray.
* Various reports of damaging hail and winds come from other
counties.

Interval 2:  8:45 AM CDT (9:45 AM EDT)
* Storms enters Areas 2 and 3.
* Multiple counties report flash flooding, damaging winds
and large hail.
* Need confirmation of report in Christian County by the
general public of a tornado west of Hopkinsville.

Interval 3:  9:00 AM CDT (10:15 AM EDT)
* Storms enter Areas 4 and 5.* NWS Paducah operators can
stand down if desired
* Virtually every county reports damaging winds as the
primary line of storms forms a large bow echo.
* Counties in Area 4 experience large hail, and flash
flooding because a secondary line of storms forms behind the
first.
* NWS Louisville needs report and confirmation of radar
indicated tornado in western Larue County.  Phone service
into the community is partially out, and NWS cannot reach
dispatch.

Interval 4: 10:30 AM EDT
* Storms enter Areas 6, 12, and 14.
* Counties in Area 6 experience winds above 70 mph, large
hail.
* Counties in Area 12 experience winds above 80 mph, large
hail and rainfall amounts in excess 2� per hour.
* Counties in Area 14 also experience the brunt of the bow
echo that has traveled through 5, 6, and 12.
* Public in eastern Boyle county reports trees and barns
down, roofs off houses.
* Cell over Lincoln Co. shows characteristics of rotation,
NWS Louisville needs confirmation from spotter.  They can
interject wall cloud, funnel, or tornado by their choice.
* Frankfort reports severe weather, and damage.

Interval 5:  10:45 AM EDT
* Storms enter Areas 7, 11, 13
* Area 7 operators report microbursts, damaging winds, and
dime size hail.
* Funnel cloud first reported on the Owen/Grant County line
touches down in western Pendleton County.
* Newport and Alexandria report wind damage and urban street
flooding.
* Multiple reports out of District 11 of winds in excess of
65 mph, with lines and tress down.  Roads near streams are
covered with water.
* Radar indicates rotation in a cell near the junction of
the Bourbon/Fayette/Scott County lines.  NWS Louisville
requests confirmation from spotters.
* Multiple reports from all counties in Area 13 follow
regarding wind damage, large hail, flooding, etc.

Interval 6:11:00 AM EDT
* Storms Enter Areas 8, 9, 10.
* NWS Louisville operators can stand down if desired.
* Mason and Montgomery Counties funnel clouds and very high
winds
*  Small tornado at junction of Boyd/Carter/Lawrence
Counties.
* Multiple reports out of other areas in Area 9
*Multiple reports of trees down, stream flooding, and power
outages in Area 10.

End of Exercise  -  11:30 AM � 12 Noon EDT (approx. based on
time in play locally)
NWS Wilmington, NWS Jackson, and NWS Charleston operators
can stand down
Make final reports to SEC
Send any necessary traffic
Close local nets thanking participants