[KYHAM] Ky ARES Advisory: Severe Weather Again Likely

[Ron Dodson]

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 8 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST
A SLIGHT 
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT
RISK 
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
65...INCLUDING THE 
LOUISVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, BOWLING GREEN, CORYDON, JASPER,
AND 
SCOTTSBURG AREAS. AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION IN THIS RISK
AREA...THERE IS 
A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HIGH 
WINDS OR LARGE HAIL DURING THIS PERIOD.

THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...A 
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND 
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WOULD BE 
FLOODING...SINCE THE GROUND OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND PARTS
OF 
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE ALREADY QUITE SATURATED. A FEW OF THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...WHICH 
CONSIDERING THE WET GROUND COULD TIP OVER SOME SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES.

LATE TONIGHT...A STRONG TO SEVERE GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
THE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THEREFORE THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF 
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS 
FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ALONG AND 
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE 
AREA...THERE IS FORECAST TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND COLD
AIR ALOFT 
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. ALSO JUST
AHEAD OF THE 
COLD FRONT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SOME OF 
THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IF FURTHER DATA ANALYSIS BY
NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SUGGESTS A CHANGE IN THE
SEVERE 
WEATHER POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL 
TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.