[KYHAM] Ky ARES Advisory: MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

[Ron Dodson]

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 AM EDT WED MAY 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS FORECAST
A 
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT 
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED 
STATES TODAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE 
AREA INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS WARM FRONT...AND A
FEW 
COULD TURN SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
EXTREME 
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING 
HOURS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR 
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED 
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD AND ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT A 
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH 
THE AREA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO FORECASTS NUMERICAL
PROBABILITIES 
OF SEVERE WEATHER. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE 
OF HAIL GREATER THAN DIME SIZE...A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS 
GREATER THAN 60 MPH...AND A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TORNADO
EXISTS 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY...A 25
PERCENT 
CHANCE OF HAIL GREATER THAN DIME SIZE...A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF WIND 
GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH EXISTS...WHILE THE TORNADO CHANCE
IS LESS 
THAN 5 PERCENT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. THE FLOW PATTERN CURRENTLY
OVER THE 
REGION IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNPREDICTABLE THAN
NORMAL...THEREFORE THIS 
FORECAST MAY CHANGE AS NEW DATA ARE ANALYZED. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA 
WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...AND THE 
INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE 
NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH 
CENTRAL INDIANA.