[KYHAM] KEN Training June 24: Earthquakes, The Wake Up Call and Threat

[Ron Dodson]

On June 18, 2002 Mother Nature reminded us that we are
living in Earthquake country when a good part of the state
was rattled by a 5.0 quake along the Wabash Valley Fault
system in southern Indiana. A couple of lesser tremors
have also occurred this week along the Wabash and New 
Madrid Seismic Zone as well as a few others out in 
the Central US around Nebraska and Texas.

During the winter of 1811 and 1812 this region of the nation
was jarred by the strongest series of quakes ever in U.S. 
history.  They were so strong they were felt in the new 
capital city of Washington DC. and many other areas.  
We are long overdue for another round by
many years.  People go about their everyday business without
much thought to the dangers lurking under the surface of our
state and region. Yjis week we'll look at the threat we face
and in future weeks we'll review planning and preparedness
for quakes.  

Many people do not realize that the Richter Scale increases
expontially in terms of effects as each number of the scale
increases. Going from a five to a six is bad enough, but
going from a five to a nine (which is about what the 1811
-1812 quakles were rated at) is roughly ten thousand times
stronger. 

The New Madrid Fault System is thought to be our chief
threat zone as seismologists predict a 40-60% chance of a
7.8 Richter Scale earthquake along this system in the next
decade.  There is also a  probability of 97%  for this quake
to occur within the next 50 years.  We also have numerous
other faults within our region which have also produced
earthquakes in the past.  The "Sharpsburg" Fault near Bath
County in eastern Kentucky, The Wabash Valley Fault (the
source of last Tuesday's event), The East Tennessee and
Charleston, South Carolina systems could each have an impact
on our area as well.  Differences in the soils of our region
versus those of California will also cause a quake in our
area to have much wider effects than a similar magnitude
occurrence along the San Andreas Fault.  There is also a
major separation between the types of faults of our area and
California.  The San Andreas Fault is along a division
between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates.  Our
fault systems are a result of stresses building in the
middle of the plate on which we live.  

In some areas of Kentucky there is a ratio of 1 emergency
response person  to every 150 citizens.  In a major
earthquake, our response system could be overwhelmed by the
numbers of people and locations in need of assistance. 
Cities, of course, are most at risk from this danger as the
larger populations and larger buildings increase the odds of
this to alarming figures.  Rural areas can not be overlooked
however, as in many areas, particularly during daytime
hours, fire, EMS and often police coverage are at minimum
levels as local volunteers have gone to their jobs in nearby
cities and towns.   These rural volunteer responders, if
caught by the earthquake, in these towns and cities may find
it impossible to return home for extended periods. 
Likewise, any family may be caught in the same situation and
if phone systems are down, lack of communications to verify
the well-being of family members may be of almost
debilitating concern.  Power, telephone, internet, and
cellular communications may be lost for days to weeks in
some areas.  Natural gas lines criss-cross Kentucky in
underground networks running in all directions and should
any of these lines rupture during a quake the explosion risk
will be only one of the resulting problems as heating fuel
may be cut to areas far removed from our state.

Buildings would not be the only victims of structural
damage.  Bridges, overpasses and dams may suffer damage to
the extent of being either unsafe for use or collapse.  Few
man made structures of any kind within our state were built
with earthquake survivability in mind.  Sound hopeless ? 
Not quite, IF we realize the threats and associated dangers
and plan for action NOW, BEFORE THE EARTHQUAKE.   Next week
we will begin to examine steps you can take to turn the odds
a little more in favor of you and your family.