[KYHAM] Ky ARES Wx Advisory #2: Central & So. Centrsl Ky

[Ron Dodson]

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS
FORECASTING A 
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY 
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
JASPER, TO 
LOUISVILLE, TO SOMERSET LINE.

THERE ARE TWO WINDOWS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT 
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST WILL BE
THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE 
TRAVERSES A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO
RIVER 
VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS A 
RESULT...WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
FROM 
THE STRONGER STORMS. PULSE TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
POSSIBLE 
AS LARGE SCALE STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE PRECLUDED DUE TO
THE 
RELATIVELY WEAK LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH A WEAK
VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR PROFILE.

THE SECOND WINDOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS 
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMPLEX WILL 
TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND
SURFACE FRONT 
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME
OF 
THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE OHIO
RIVER 
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE 
SO THESE STORMS MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED, WITH BOW ECHOS
POSSIBLE 
CONTAINING STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR
RADIO 
STATIONS, AND THE INTERNET FOR FURTHER UPDATES. THERE IS
STILL A 
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE SITUATION WILL EVOLVE, 
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
SPOTTER 
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA 
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.