[KYHAM] ATTN: KY ARES, Winter Weather Outlook

[Ron Dodson]

Attention all Ky ARES members: 
Please be advised of the following weather outlook for
snow potentials...  Local or state-wde ARES activations
MAY BE requested later this weekend.

73, 
Ron, KA4MAP
==========================
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EST THU JAN 17 2002

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
LATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING... 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD 
OF THIS LOW...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST
AIR WILL SURGE 
NORTHWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. AS THE
MOISTURE INTERCEPTS 
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY.  

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN 
SPREAD EAST RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AN AXIS  
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
AT THIS 
TIME...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS AXIS IS NOT
COMPLETELY KNOWN. 
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS AXIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL 
KENTUCKY.   

AT THE SAME TIME...WARMER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTHWARD 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE SNOW MAY
BECOME MIXED 
WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN IN THOSE SOUTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY COUNTIES 
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THIS WOULD DECREASE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL
HELP DETERMINE 
SNOW AMOUNTS...THE FOLLOWING ARE INITIAL ESTIMATES OF
SNOWFALL 
ACCUMULATION. 

  SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA...  1 TO 3 INCHES
  NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY... 2 TO 4 INCHES
  EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  3 TO 6 INCHES
  SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY... 4 TO 8 INCHES BUT LESSER
AMOUNTS IF
                            THE SNOW MIXES WITH OR
TURNS TO RAIN  

THESE ESTIMATES WILL BE UPDATED AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING IF
SUBSEQUENT DATA 
SUGGESTS HEAVY SNOW WILL MATERIALIZE. 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER
SITUATION.