[KCDXC] FW: [Cq-l] CQ News: CQ WW SSB Update - 29-X-2004

[Reicher, James]

FYI, y'all.  Good luck to all taking part in CQWWDX this weekend!

73 de N8AU, Jim in Raymore, MO


-----Original Message-----
From: cq-l-bounces at unix14.sunserver.com [mailto:cq-l-bounces at unix14.sunserver.com] On Behalf Of Rich Moseson, W2VU
Sent: Friday, October 29, 2004 10:14 AM
To: CQ Newsletter List
Subject: [Cq-l] CQ News: CQ WW SSB Update - 29-X-2004

Here is the latest CQWW SSB propagation update from CQ Propagation Editor 
Tomas Hood, NW7US. 

PLEASE NOTE: Due to a typo in our September issue and on our website, there 
is some confusion regarding the start time date of this weekend's CQ World 
Wide DX Contest. The contest begins TONIGHT, at 0000 UTC 30 October and runs 
for 48 hours, ending at 2359 UTC on 31 October. 

Since times are in UTC, the switchover from daylight to standard time in most 
of the United States early Sunday morning will not affect the contest times. 
We apologize for any confusion. 

Good luck, have fun and operate courteously. Please try to avoid QRMing 
ongoing communications. 73, the editors 

Now, here's Tomas's last-minute propagation update: 

Hello, 

This is the last update before the start of the CQ WW SSB contest of   
2004.  With the contest beginning at the start of 30 October 2004 UTC, and   
running through the end of 31 October 2004 UTC, we are seeing the minor   
influence of a southern-hemisphere solar coronal hole.  This has elevated   
the solar wind speed to a level just short of 400 km/s.  The   
Interplanetary Magnetic Field's orientation, as measured by the Bz (B   
subscript z) component, has been negative now for a period of time, enough   
to increase the geomagnetic activity.  We will see the geomagnetic field   
staying between disturbed and active. 

Sometime late on October 31, a very weak coronal mass ejection might   
arrive, adding to the disturbance of the geomagnetic field.  This is a   
very slow moving CME, so we expect it to arrive later in the day, and   
maybe even after the end of the contest. 

The expected 10.7-cm flux for both days is about 120 to 125.  There are a   
number of sunspot groups visible.  My Last Minute Forecast   
( http://hfradio.org/lastminute_propagation.html ) prediction still holds   
Above Normal to High Normal conditions. 

The highest bands, like 10 and 15, will suffer the most during the day,   
due to the geomagnetic influence which will cause a slight depression from   
the expected ionospheric strength.  During the night hours, the critical   
frequencies will be depressed by as much as 10%.  Will this cause this   
year's contest to suffer? 

Based on the last few years' contest experiences, I feel that this year   
could give excellent results.  Since each of the previous contest years   
had geomagnetic activity, sometimes much higher than what we expect this   
year, and we also suffered the multitudes of back-to-back flares, this   
will be a tame year of adverse conditions.  With a generally more quiet   
geomagnetic environment, and reasonably high solar energy levels as shown   
in the 10.7-cm flux readings, we can expect great conditions that might   
rival last year's. 

It will be an exciting weekend.  I look forward to seeing the results.   
Good luck to everyone! 

----- 
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