[KCDXC] FW: [cq-l] Propagation Update from NW7US

Thu, 6 Nov 2003 12:22:41 -0600

FYI

73 de N8AU, Jim in Raymore, MO

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] 
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2003 10:30 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [cq-l] Propagation Update from NW7US

 From the CQ Newsroom...

The following update is from CQ Propagation Editor Tomas Hood, NW7US:

The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the X25+ flare of 4-XI-2003 should
arrive
anytime, today.  It will be a glancing blow, yet there is an expectation 
that it
will be strong enough to trigger a major geomagnetic storm.  Then, tomorrow
or
Saturday the Earth may be exposed to a fast solar wind stream from a small
low-
latitude coronal hole, now rotating in geoeffective position. This can 
maintain
active to minor storm conditions for one or two days.  This might provide
for
Aurora-mode propagation on low-VHF.

The Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) event is still active, but decreasing,
possibly
ending by the end of 6-XI-2003.  However, if shock-accelerated protons 
increase
the >10MeV proton flux due to the arrival of a CME later today, the PCA 
could be
extended for another one to two days.  This will shut down over-the-pole and
high-latitude propagation paths.

Solar activity has dropped over the last day, and the background X-ray
levels
are finally down in the B range.  This is making it better for the lower 
bands.
The 10.7-cm flux is decreasing, as well, so the highest HF bands are less 
likely
to propagate.

73 de Tomas, NW7US (AAR0JA/AAM0EWA)
--
: Propagation Editor, CQ/CQ VHF/Popular Communications Magazines :
: http://hfradio.org/ -- http://prop.hfradio.org/ -- Brinnon, WA :

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