[KCDXC] Fw: ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV

[Steve Lufcy]

> ----- Original Message ----- 
> Sent: Friday, June 28, 2002 07:56
> Subject: ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV
> 
> 
> > SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
> > ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > ZCZC AP26
> > QST de W1AW  
> > Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
> > From Tad Cook, K7VVV
> > Seattle, WA  June 28, 2002
> > To all radio amateurs 
> > 
> > SB PROP ARL ARLP026
> > ARLP026 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > There has been very little activity on the sun to speak of. Average
> > solar flux this week was about the same as last, up by less than 6
> > points. Average sunspot numbers declined a little over 10 points.
> > The prediction for the near term is absolutely flat, with solar flux
> > at 140 for the next week. This is a little too far out to predict
> > with great accuracy, but the projected solar flux is expected to go
> > below 140 around July 9-12. All of this is far below the information
> > from last week, which indicated a rise to 170 by the end of June,
> > which is in the next few days. Now there is no activity to indicate
> > that this will happen.
> > 
> > There is a possibility of an eruption from sunspot 8, but it is not
> > directly facing earth and will continue to rotate away from us.
> > 
> > Sunspot 8?
> > 
> > You may have noticed that the latest sunspots all have low numbers.
> > Each emerging region of activity on the sun is assigned a number,
> > but they only go to 9999. Now we're not speaking of the daily
> > Sunspot Number, which is based on a count of the currently visible
> > spots, but a numbering of the sunspot regions so one can be
> > described and talked about and differentiated from any other spot.
> > 
> > On June 14, 2002 the sunspot region after 9999 was numbered, and it
> > was number 10,000, assigned 0000. The next one was 0001, but most
> > reports will ignore the leading zeros. Sunspot region 2 emerged on
> > June 15.
> > 
> > You can see the new numbered spots by looking at the image on the
> > solar disk at the NASA Space Weather Bureau page at
> > http://spaceweather.com. I have no idea why a government entity
> > would be a dot-com, but perhaps I missed something. I doubt if NASA
> > has been privatized, but perhaps they thought that dot-com sounded
> > more familiar and easy to remember. You can see a description of the
> > daily Sunspot Number and how it is derived at,
> > http://www.ips.gov.au/background/richard/ssn.def.html.
> > 
> > Take a look at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1399.pdf for
> > the Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data, which
> > has a note about the numbering on page one. This is a great
> > publication by NOAA Space Environment Center that used to arrive via
> > postal mail, and is now available for free in PDF on the web at,
> > http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html.
> > 
> > The item in last week's bulletin mentioning propagation software
> > brought news of a new program. Richard Buckner, who is not a ham
> > (actually he is ex-WN5VYK, a Novice call sign he held long ago)
> > worked for Continental Electronics and then Collins Radio in Dallas
> > (along with his wife Sue) for many years. They developed high power
> > HF and VLF transmitters, and he was also concerned with propagation
> > software for operators of this equipment.
> > 
> > Now in retirement he and his wife and two programmers have spent the
> > last 16 months developing ACE-HF, which uses VOACAP as a
> > computational engine but adds some wonderful animated graphs to
> > express many variables, including required power gain,
> > signal-to-noise ratio and reliability. You can see details at
> > http://www.acehf.com.
> > 
> > Joe Ahlgren, the author of GeoClock is a partner in developing
> > ACE-HF and he also worked on VLF software for Collins. ACE-HF has
> > many features that these folks originally built into the military
> > versions of propagation programs they worked on in their
> > professional careers.
> > 
> > Richard is excited about this software, and his work on it has
> > renewed his interest in HF communications and amateur radio. He told
> > me he still has his original Hallicrafters SX-43 from his Novice
> > days, and I suspect he will be getting re-licensed and back on the
> > air very soon.
> > 
> > By the way, if you're young enough not to have seen an SX-43, or old
> > enough to remember, check out,
> > http://www.rigpix.com/hallicrafter/sx43.htm,
> > http://www.dxing.com/rx/sx42.htm,
> > http://www.qsl.net/la5ki/big/sx43.jpg or
> > http://www.qsl.net/la5ki/sx43.htm.
> > 
> > ARRL headquarters will be closed next Thursday and Friday, so this
> > bulletin may not appear next week. If it does, it will probably be a
> > short bulletin issued early in the week.
> > 
> > Sunspot numbers for June 20 through 26 were 122, 113, 102, 144, 133,
> > 127 and 102, with a mean of 120.4. 10.7 cm flux was 145.1, 139.6,
> > 142, 142.8, 150.3, 144.7, and 143.8, with a mean of 144. Estimated
> > planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 14, 10, 11, and 8, with a mean of
> > 10.
> > NNNN
> > /EX
> 
>