[KCDXC] Fw: ARLP003 Propagation de K7VVV

[K0OU]

Subject: Fw: ARLP003 Propagation de K7VVV


> > SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
> > ARLP003 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > ZCZC AP03
> > QST de W1AW  
> > Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003
> > From Tad Cook, K7VVV
> > Seattle, WA  January 18, 2002
> > To all radio amateurs 
> > 
> > SB PROP ARL ARLP003
> > ARLP003 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > Last week's bulletin talked about a rising solar flux, with a peak
> > around Thursday of this week. Instead the visible solar disk has few
> > sunspots, and solar flux is almost 50 points lower than predicted.
> > Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled last weekend, but not stormy.
> > Instead of planetary A indices of 30, 20 and 15 for Friday through
> > Sunday, they were 21, 15 and 11.
> > 
> > On Friday the planetary K index was at 4 most of the day. Higher
> > latitude geomagnetic indices were greater. Alaska's College A index
> > for Friday was 37, and the day prior was even higher at 45. The
> > College K index went as high as 7 on Thursday, indicating a
> > geomagnetic storm and absorption for radio signals traveling over
> > the polar path.
> > 
> > Average daily solar flux was about 18 points higher than the
> > previous week, and average daily sunspot numbers were over 9 points
> > lower.
> > 
> > The latest prediction for the next few days shows no geomagnetic
> > upsets, with solar flux at 215 for Friday and Saturday and 220 for
> > Sunday. Projected average solar flux for the whole week looks to be
> > similar to this week, unless some new sunspots emerge. Holographic
> > images of the sun's far side show a large active region, but it
> > won't face the earth until some time after next week.
> > 
> > WA4TTK has some minor revisions to his Solar Data Plotting Utility,
> > including the ability to download data in one file from the ARRL.
> > Get the latest version from Scott on his web site at
> > http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.htm .
> > 
> > AC7OT in Tucson asked about web sites that feature geophysical data.
> > As mentioned last week, gopher://solar.sec.noaa.gov/00/latest/DGD
> > gives A and K indices for middle latitude, high latitude, and also
> > planetary, which is for the entire earth.
> > 
> > You can see the latest text from the 18-minutes-after-each-hour WWV
> > bulletin (which has the latest Boulder, Colorado K index) from NOAA
> > at ftp://ftp.sel.noaa.gov/pub/latest/wwv.txt .
> > 
> > There is a good site with links concerning auroras, (which emerge
> > during periods of high geomagnetic activity) at the University of
> > Alaska at http://www.pfrr.alaska.edu/~pfrr/AURORA/LINKS.HTM .
> > 
> > There is lots of data from the National Geophysical Data Center at
> > http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/ , and there is a good explanation of the
> > relationship between geomagnetic A and K indices at
> > http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/GEOMAG/kp_ap.html .
> > 
> > Look for plots of solar-geophysical data at
> > http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/plots.html , and then look toward the
> > bottom for yearly plot files. If you click on the 2001 files, check
> > out the period between March 31 and April 2. You will see some huge
> > K index numbers during a tremendous geomagnetic storm. One file to
> > look at is the one beginning with the characters 20010401.
> > 
> > Sunspot numbers for January 10 through 16 were 179, 195, 174, 190,
> > 191, 155 and 131 with a mean of 173.6. 10.7 cm flux was 224.6,
> > 228.9, 233.3, 240.7, 229, 218.3 and 216.1, with a mean of 227.3, and
> > estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 15, 11, 8, 6 and 4 with a
> > mean of 11.7.
> > NNNN
> > /EX
> > 
> > 
>