[KCDXC] Fw: ARLP008 Propagation de K7VVV

[K0OU]

Sent: Saturday, February 23, 2002 3:28 AM
Subject: Fw: ARLP008 Propagation de K7VVV


> 
> 
> > SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
> > ARLP008 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > ZCZC AP08
> > QST de W1AW  
> > Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
> > From Tad Cook, K7VVV
> > Seattle, WA  February 22, 2002
> > To all radio amateurs 
> > 
> > SB PROP ARL ARLP008
> > ARLP008 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux were both down this
> > week. Fortunately, geomagnetic indices were low as well. The average
> > daily planetary A index dropped from 10 to 6. This contrasts with
> > last week's warning of possible geomagnetic activity for the
> > weekend, although the bulletin did hedge a bit, stating effects
> > could miss earth and conditions turn out mild, which they did. The
> > result was very good conditions for the contest weekend.
> > 
> > Last week's bulletin suggested a rising solar flux toward the
> > 240-245 level around February 24-28, but the latest projection shows
> > flux values around 200 for the next few days, gradually declining
> > toward 180 around March 6. There isn't much visible sunspot
> > activity, and holographic images show nothing substantial on the
> > sun's far side.
> > 
> > Geomagnetic conditions could become unstable by Saturday with a
> > planetary A index around 20. This is because of a coronal mass
> > ejection that left the sun on February 20, erupting from sunspot
> > 9825. This area is right at the northwestern edge of the visible
> > solar disk, so any effect on earth is uncertain.
> > 
> > Check out this interesting set of links from the Solar Physics
> > Department at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The URL is
> > http://sidc.oma.be/html/ClickMaps.html , and the department's home
> > page is http://sol.oma.be/homepage.php3 .
> > 
> > Sunspot numbers for February 14 through 20 were 209, 156, 134, 121,
> > 103, 130 and 157 with a mean of 144.3. 10.7 cm flux was 196.1, 195,
> > 193.5, 196.6, 192.8, 189.4 and 193.4, with a mean of 193.8, and
> > estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 5, 8, 9, 4 and 8 with a
> > mean of 6.
> > NNNN
> > /EX
> > 
>