[KCDXC] Fw: ARLP005 Propagation de K7VVV

[K0OU]

Sent: Saturday, February 02, 2002 6:04 AM
Subject: Fw: ARLP005 Propagation de K7VVV


> 
> > SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
> > ARLP005 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > ZCZC AP05
> > QST de W1AW  
> > Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005
> > From Tad Cook, K7VVV
> > Seattle, WA  February 1, 2002
> > To all radio amateurs 
> > 
> > SB PROP ARL ARLP005
> > ARLP005 Propagation de K7VVV
> > 
> > Average solar flux was up nearly 30 points this week, and average
> > sunspot numbers rose by nearly 15. Solar flux peaked on Tuesday at
> > 261, and is probably headed down for a while. Predicted solar flux
> > for Friday through Monday is 250, 245, 240 and 235.
> > 
> > There was an M-1 solar flare at 2005z on Saturday and the flare may
> > have enhanced the daily solar flux reading for that day, which was
> > 256.5. This reading is at noon local time (2000z) in Penticton,
> > British Columbia, but there are also a morning reading and a third
> > one in the afternoon. The morning reading for that day was 244.1 and
> > the afternoon flux was 248.8.
> > 
> > Sometimes a flare will throw so much energy at earth that the 10.7
> > cm receiver used for recording solar flux will be completely
> > overwhelmed. An extreme example was on December 28, 2001 when
> > Penticton reported an 1800z reading of 263.3, at 2000z it was 655.6,
> > and at 2200z it was 331.8. The official number reported for that day
> > and reported in this bulletin was adjusted down to 263, which was
> > the morning reading rounded off.
> > 
> > There are three classes of solar flares, and from small to large
> > they are C, M and X. The X-class flares trigger radio blackouts all
> > over the earth if they are aimed our direction. M-class flares may
> > cause brief radio blackouts and high absorption over polar paths.
> > C-class flares are small, with few effects.
> > 
> > Each flare class has nine ratings, so there are 27 in all. The M-1
> > flare was the smallest in the medium sized class.
> > 
> > Saturday's flare didn't cause any noticeable geomagnetic
> > disturbance. Friday had a brief period when the planetary K index
> > was 4 and the high-latitude Alaska College K index was 5, but the
> > rest of the periods were so quiet that for all week, the A index was
> > in the single-digits.
> > 
> > Sunspot region 9800 is near the center of the visible solar disk,
> > which means that its energy is aimed at earth. Currently it has a
> > twisted complex magnetic field, which could unleash energy for a
> > major earth-directed X-class flare. If it doesn't explode, we should
> > have good HF radio conditions.
> > 
> > K1TEO wrote to report that good 6-meter conditions continue. On
> > Wednesday, January 23 many stations in the Eastern United States
> > worked stations in the Ukraine with S9 signals. The next day he
> > worked ES/YL/OH/SM stations with good signals, and on Friday he
> > mainly worked Western Europe. There were also openings to the West
> > Coast and Western Canada. Jeff says that the openings are not as
> > strong or widespread as in November and December, ''but still plenty
> > of action.''
> > 
> > Sunspot numbers for January 24 through 30 were 173, 196, 194, 189,
> > 207, 214 and 210 with a mean of 197.6. 10.7 cm flux was 230.8,
> > 234.8, 256.5, 248, 259.8, 261 and 256.3, with a mean of 249.6, and
> > estimated planetary A indices were 4, 8, 7, 7, 6, 4 and 3 with a
> > mean of 5.6.
> > NNNN
> > /EX
>