[K6BW] 11-Year Solar Minimum -??

[Bill Smith]

Below is an excerpt from
http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2007/11/09/100/?nc=1.  You might scan
through the article and see if it leaves you as confused and disjointed as I
found.  At any rate, apparently we have still not reached the Solar minimum
in the 11-year cycle (even though there have been many claims to that
effect).  Bands have been very poor recently, apparently because there have
been very few or no sunspots in the last week or so.


"In the past, the forecast in this table always stretched a few years into
the future. In fact, this table has ended in December 2007 for some time
now. Why hasn't the forecast been extended through 2008 and 2009? The reason
is because the panel of scientists who met in April 2007 to come up with
predicted values for the next solar cycle was unable to reach any consensus.
You can see their statement here. But they agreed that the solar minimum is
predicted for March 2008, plus or minus six months.

The two scenarios are cycle 24 peaking at sunspot number 140 in October
2011, or peaking at 90 on August 2012. If you click on the "Solar Cycle 24
Consensus Prediction" link, this brings up a PowerPoint presentation
summarizing the report. If you don't have PowerPoint, you can download a
free viewer here.

The panel does not expect to reach a consensus for a cycle 24 prediction
until solar minimum has passed. Until then, an average of the two scenarios
calls for a peak in January 2012 with a smoothed sunspot number of 113,
several points lower than the peak of the current cycle. "

73 de Bill, AB6MT