[K6BW] RE: Are we now seeing the warnings of Armageddon?

[LEP Paul]

To Everyone,

	This is Paul Claeyssens, Ham call sign AE6UI.  Ever since coming
back to Ham after 40 years, I have looked at HAMCAMS.com daily to see the
effect of solar activity on the bands. There is a link there to the current
orbiting solar observatory with images and graphs of radiation from the sun.


	I have been watching the unusual increased activity on the face of
the sun for the last year and a half.  I have come to the conclusion that
these "flares" resemble closely the spots on Jupiter when comet fragments
hit it in 1994.  I have also noted that most of the current solar flares are
near-equatorial.  All of this leads me to believe that what we are seeing is
impacts on the sun as its gravity sweeps up space debris in the plane of the
planetary orbits.

	An additional support for this theory comes from another fact.
Approximately every 30,000 years, the solar system wobbles through the plane
of the Milky Way.  Unfortunately, these passages through the plane of our
Galaxy have been marked by mass extinctions and dramatic weather and other
changes on Earth.  Some of these events were connected with major impacts on
Earth by space debris. We are now entering the peak of next 30,000 year
cycle, and lining up with the plane of the Milky Way.

	The significance of the Solar system being struck by debris while in
the plane of the Milky way has a parallel in my understanding.  The sun
strikes we are seeing as flares seem to come in from the plane of the
planets.  The equatorial plane is where debris collects, orbits, and could
be most likely fall into to the Sun as it sweeps through the universe.  Our
recent robotic spacecraft visits to the planets have shown that many of them
have rings like Saturn.  These rings are very thin, but dense.  Our Solar
System itself has this thin,  dense ring.  Our Milky Galaxy is a thin, dense
ring.  The density of Milky Way space debris the Solar system is passing
through could rise and fall quickly and dramatically.  It could very well be
that the quick rise in Solar Flare activity we are seeing is caused by our
re-entering the thin dense disk of the Milky Way after 30,000 years.

	Yes, the risk of direct strikes to the Earth is scary.  However, I
believe that just as scary, and perhaps maybe as serious a threat for damage
to the Earth, is major impacts to the Sun.  In that event, the flares could
extend out far enough to actually envelop the Earth in their fury.  The
impact on weather and our over all civilized well-being could be just as
catastrophic as a strike to Earth itself.  Even if the flares miss the
Earth, debris from a Solar impact could end up in the Earth's orbit itself,
posing a continuing threat of Earth impacts.

	So, underlying all of this is the thought that we should actually be
EXPECTING all of this increased solar flare activity that seems to be out of
cycle.  What we may be observing is a different, longer cycle, or a period
when the overall activity is so great that the troughs look like the peaks
we were used to.  If this is true, then we can expect the activity to
continue to increase with the normal 11-year solar flare cycle, and beyond.


	This is humbling.  Perhaps all of the current news events we discuss
are insignificant.  Perhaps the expectation that human activity is the
biggest cause of global warming will all be blown away by the real
power....Nature herself.  I have always thought the greatest destruction we
will ever see will not be man-made.  It will be natural.  Unfortunately for
us, it could be sooner than later from these indications.  God save us.  I
am an optimist, but I will keep looking up.

	Happy Holidays, and Peace on Earth to all Men, Women, Children and
Living things.

		-  Paul Claeyssens	AE6UI

	

-----Original Message-----
From: k6bw-bounces at mailman.qth.net [mailto:k6bw-bounces at mailman.qth.net] On
Behalf Of Bill Smith
Sent: Wednesday, December 06, 2006 4:15 PM
To: QTH Reflector HWA
Subject: [K6BW] Followup: 0'l Sol's Sneezin - purloined from QRP-L

Gang,

Last night at our Tuesday night get together, Bill, K6RMK reported hearing
the impact of the solar flare on the Earth.  He reported hearing the effect
of the shock wave, followed by popcorn sounds, evidence of proton
collisions.

Yesterday, the sun produced an X9 solar flare, *very* unusual for being near
the bottom of the solar minimum.  Today (6Dec) the sun produced another X6
flare.  This certainly suggests that active region #0930 will be bringing us
plenty of entertainment over the next two weeks as it rotates across the
surface of the sun.

For the *duration* of the flare events, HF can be disrupted by bursty and
continuum noise, plus enhanced D-layer ionization absorbing signals, if not
a temporary HF blackout.  However, once that bleeds off in an hour or two,
the D-layer will be back to normal and the E/F layers will remain ionized
above normal for the rest of your local daytime hours.  This of course makes
the E/F layers more reflective and raises the MUF.  Therefore, a good time
for QRPers to check the bands is an hour or so after a large flare until
local sundown for enhanced HF propagation.

Most of today we've also been in a major geomagnetic storm.  Believe it or
not, it has nothing to do with yesterday's X9 (or today's X6) flare.  The
Earth has simply run in to a high speed electron stream from a coronal hole.
This has exerted pressure against our magnetic field, compressing it, and
generating huge electrical currents causing high HF noise levels.  This will
subside by later in the day.

If the sun produces M or X class flares over the next few days, the coronal
mass ejection (CME) will begin to be pointed towards earth, meaning we can
expect a geomagnetic storm about two days following the flare event.  The
closer the solar flare is to the center of the sun, more the direct of a hit
we'll receive on earth.  Today's X6, being near the limb of the sun, will
probably give the earth only a glancing blow for a few hours of unsettled
conditions late friday.

The >10MeV proton count is high.  These protons tend to accumulate in the
polar regions (where the Earth's magnetic field is weakest).  This causes a
Polar Cap Absorption Event, meaning high absorption to HF signals for those
above 45-50 degrees latitude.  These same protons are what fuels auroral
displays.  Those in the higher latitudes are experiencing aurora now.

The moral of the story for QRPers:
1) Don't let reports of solar flares, geomagnetic storms, CME's keep you
  off the bands.  Much of this is of short term duration.
2) Enhanced HF propagation, including sporadic openings on 15, 10 and even
  6M can occur after a major flare for the rest of the day until sundown.
3) This includes possible north-south dx propagation at sundown due to
  gray-line propagation.  (If you do work McMurdo Sound, you better make
  the QSO a snappy one, though -hi).

Good luck and have fun on the bands.  It's not nearly as bad as it appears.
In fact, it really works in the QRPers favor.

72, Paul NA5N

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