[K3PZN-List] Fw: [QRP-L] Mon. nite - solar flares & auroras

Tue Nov 13 09:31:39 EST 2012

Of course this weekend is SSB Sweeps so it will be interesting to see how propagation pans out, also new this year are extra CA sections so you need 83 sections for the sweep now (tip - update your logging software or it won't know what these sections are).

Andy
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Curt Milton" <wb8yyy at yahoo.com> 
To: "Carroll County Amateur Radio Club" <k3pzn-list at mailman.qth.net> 
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2012 8:51:09 AM 
Subject: [K3PZN-List] Fw: [QRP-L] Mon. nite - solar flares & auroras 

Look out below! Old sol is becoming more active - interesting reading below. Before you think of the author as one of those serious scientists, I'll mentioned he also organizes the annual Zombie Shuffle on CW - delayed this year BTW. I did notice prop was a dud yesterday, but I would have preferred to see some visible aurora (not that radio aurora on VHF isn't fun also). 

73 Curt 

----- Forwarded Message ----- 
From: "na5n at zianet.com" <na5n at zianet.com> 
To: qrp-l at mailman.qth.net 
Sent: Tuesday, November 13, 2012 1:42 AM 
Subject: [QRP-L] Mon. nite - solar flares & auroras 

There's finally been some solar/geomagnetic activity past few hours ... 

CME SHOCK WAVE AND AURORA 
The shockwave from a CME arrived right around 2300 UTC Nov. 12 (Monday 
night) that triggered a K=4 geomagnetic storm. This is causing enhanced 
noise and bursty conditions on HF, and worse in Canada and Alaska. 

The above event is also producing some enhanced auroral activity. Proton 
density has decreased, suggesting the geomagnetic storm is beginning to 
subside. 

SOLAR FLARES 

Only minutes after the arrival of the above shock wave, the sun produced an 
M2 flare at 2313 UTC Nov. 12. This flare and the above CME are not related. 

About two hours later, an M6 flare occurred Nov. 13 0200 UTC. This has 
ionized the D-layer for high HF absorption and sporadic blackout conditions 
on the sunlit side of the planet. The X-ray radiation also ionized the E/F 
layers and has raised the MUF to well above 10M. 

Right now (about 0100 EST), the MUF is 35-40 MHz over Eastern Africa, India, 
and Asia. This will produce some great propagation and QRP DX for our 
friends across Europe and Asia, and for early birds along the U.S. East 
Coast Tuesday morning (once the D-layer absorption event subsides, which it 
appears it is doing around 0100 EDT). 

The M6 flare also produced a CME with a shock wave velocity of about 1200 
km/sec. - a fairly stout shock wave. 

The above activity is from solar region 1613, which has just rotated into 
view past couple of days and has rapidly grown from an alpha region (weak 
magnetic field) to a beta group (strong, organized magnetic fields). Thus, 
we will only receive a glancing blow at best from the above activity. 

However, it is worth keeping an eye on region 1613 for further M- or even 
X-class flare activity over the rest of the week. Once the region rotates 
towards the center of a sun, a major flare could cause a major geomagnetic 
storm about 2 days later. 

SOLAR FLUX 

Monday's solar flux was 144 and the 90-day mean 118. This is before the 
above solar flares, which will likely raise the solar flux to well over 150 
over the next couple of days. More than enough to have some fun on 15M and 
10M. 

The sunspot count has been 40-60 so far this month, jumping to 188 today, 
and solar flux ranging from 98-144 over the same period, for those who think 
there is any meaningful correlation between sunspots and solar flux. 

If you see aurora, work some neat DX, or find the bands a bit different, let 
us know and where you are at. 

Real time solar/geomagnetic data at: 
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html 
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html 

Current warnings at: 
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html 

And, real time SOHO solar wind and proton monitor at: 
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/ 

Good DX and 72, 
Paul NA5N 

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