[K3PZN-List] Fwd: [qrp-l.org] C-class solar flare!

[Curt Milton]

Another fine report on what the sun is doing vs. not
doing.  Enjoy! 

PS- goings on in my shack: assembling 100 watt PA
board for K2, contemplating better antennas, preparing
for lots of yard work.  73, curt

--- na5n at zianet.com wrote:

> From: na5n at zianet.com
> To: qrp-l at qrp-l.org
> Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2007 22:44:40 -0600
> Subject: [qrp-l.org] C-class solar flare!
> 
> Gang,
> Various spaceborne platforms have detected enhanced
> activity from the sun 
> over the past few days that seems to be coming from
> an active region just 
> now rotating around the limb into view.  Since it is
> out of view, it is not 
> effecting the solar output of the sun as seen by
> earth.  As a result, the 
> background X-ray level has remained below the A.1
> level, or extremely 
> minimal typical around the solar minimum. 
> 
> Today, the active region reached the limb, causing
> the x-ray emissions, and 
> that at 2880 MHz, to elevate.  For the past
> 24-hours, the x-ray background 
> level of the sun has risen from that virtual
> "flat-line below A.1 level" to 
> about A.7.  Nothing huge, but enough to slightly
> raise the overall emissions 
> from the sun.  As a result, the solar flux, which
> has been stuck at 69-70 
> for days and days (actually, weeks), suddenly rose
> to 73 today.  As this 
> active region causes this slight increase in solar
> emission, it will cause a 
> slight corresponding increase in the ionization of
> our E/F layers. 
> 
> Then, a bit past midnight UTC, (a few hours ago)
> this active region produced 
> a C.3 solar flare.  A C-class flare is no biggie,
> but certainly notable for 
> these doldrum days.  It will not adversely affect HF
> propagation ... no 
> radio noise storms (which would have ended by now
> anyway) and no geomagnetic 
> storm on it's way.  No word from NOAA yet if it was
> accompanied by a CME, 
> and even if it did, the location on the solar limb
> would not impact earth 
> anyway. 
> 
> The increase in the solar x-ray output and the flare
> can be seen at:
> http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html 
> 
> But, the event (mostly the rise in x-ray emission)
> is enough to slightly 
> elevate the ionizing radiation to our ionosphere
> over the next few days.  A 
> slight increase in solar flux will follow.  As a
> result, NOAA has broken 
> their "stuck" solar flux forecast from 70/70/70,
> etc. to 75/75/75 over the 
> next few days.  As the region rotates onto the solar
> surface facing the 
> earth, solar flux may increase further over the next
> few days to a week. 
> 
> This doesn't mean 10M is now open :-(  It does mean
> conditions over the next 
> few days, including QRPTTF on saturday, *might* see
> a slight improvement in 
> 20M conditions.  And right now, *any* improvement
> would be welcome.  As a 
> result, HF propagation on 20M just might be a little
> quietter, a little 
> longer, and open a little later for the next few
> days.  For a QSO or two, 
> you might not notice the difference.  But, if you're
> on the band for any 
> length of time, such as for QRPTTF, the slight
> increase in E/F reflectivity 
> could have advantageous periods.  40M will not be
> phased by today's increase 
> in x-ray/solar flux. 
> 
> The point of this is not to suggest QRPTTF will
> suddenly be great, but a 
> reminder of how unpredictable our sun really is. 
> Today's C-class flare 
> should also not be interpretted that the solar
> minimum is over.  The sun can 
> simply hiccup any time it wants.  As stated in my
> post a week ago, it will 
> take about 2 months AFTER the solar minimum before
> we know we were in it.  
> Likewise, it will take 2-3 months to know if the
> minimum is over.  Right 
> now, we don't know where we are, other than very
> near the minimum of the 
> 11-year solar cycle.  And, today's bloom in activity
> will confuse NOAA in 
> making this determination as much as it confuses us!
>  It has definitely 
> contaminated the "data." 
> 
> It may be worth keeping an eye on the sun over the
> next few days.  This 
> active region (which isn't even numbered yet) may
> turn out to be nothing 
> over the next couple of days, or could grow into a
> modest sized area.  If 
> the later, it could continue to elevate the solar
> flux and improve 
> conditions on 20M slightly. 
> 
> Personally, I think we are at, or very near the
> solar minimum, and today's 
> activity is merely an abberation.  Of course, this
> is purely a guestimate 
> for my own personal amusement.  I could be wrong. 
> Solar minimum might be 
> several months away.  Likewise, the sun could be
> starting the next solar 
> cycle with a bang (if you consider a C-class a
> bang).  Only time will tell. 
> 
> If nothing else ... it's the first time the sun has
> done ANYTHING in several 
> months worth writing about. 
> 
> 72, Paul NA5N 
> 
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
>
http://mail.qrp-l.org/mailman/listinfo/qrp-l_qrp-l.org
> 


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