[K3PZN-List] Solar Cycle 24 :

[clint brosenne]

This was found on a VHF reflector:
Very Interesting stuff.
W3ARS,Clint

This is not mine, I'm passing this on from an ole VHF friend of many
years.
sam k5sw
The Next Solar Maximum the Smallest in 100  Years?

The interior of the Sun holds the key to predicting the strength of  each
solar cycle. Internal magnetic fields are twisted up and wrapped  around
the Sun
due to the Sun's differential rotation. These fields are  thought to be
what
gives rise to the formation of sunspots and related  space weather
activity.
05 March 2005 | The latest  research results[1] by Drs. Leif Svalgaard,
Yohsuke Kamide at the  Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya
University
(Japan) and Edward  W. Cliver at the Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force
Research Laboratory,  Hanscom Air Force Base (Massachusetts) suggest
that the Sun
may be less active  during the next solar cycle than it has been during the
last 100 years.
These results are based upon one of the most  successful solar cycle
prediction methods in existence. The "Precursor Method"  is capable of
predicting the
magnitude of the next solar maximum up to about 7  years before the solar
maximum occurs. This is possible by examining the  strength of the
magnetic fields
that congregate in the polar regions of the Sun  a few years before the
solar
minimum of each solar cycle and relating the  strength of those fields
to the
observed sunspot numbers during the next solar  maximum. The polar magnetic
fields provide the "seed" magnetic flux necessary to  drive the sunspot
activity during the next solar cycle.
The most recent findings by Dr. Svalgaard et al.  are based on only the
first
of three years of data during the current decline of  solar cycle 23. At
least two more years of data (through the solar minimum) are  required
to provide
a more accurate prediction. Nevertheless, sufficient data is  now
available to
make an initial reasonable prediction. They predict that the  next solar
maximum (the time during which the proliferation of sunspots is
greatest) will be
associated with a sunspot number of only 75, with an error of  1 8. If this
prediction holds true, the next solar cycle (cycle 24) will peak  around
the
year 2011 with a sunspot number that is lower than any previous solar
cycle
since cycle 14 when the observed sunspot number peaked at a value of
only  64 in
1906.
What is the significance of this prediction,  assuming it holds true?
Sunspots are a source of eruptive phenomena such as  solar flares.
Energetic coronal
mass ejections are also related to the occurence  of solar flares. And
coronal
mass ejections can produce hazardous space weather  conditions to
spacecraft,
aircraft and power grids. One would think that a lower  sunspot number
would
be good news for these industries. Overall average space  weather
effects may
indeed be a bit milder. But these industries are more  adversely
affected by
the few extreme solar outbursts that occur during the  solar cycle than
they
are during the less volatile "average" conditions observed  during the
solar
cycle. Svalgaard et al. are quick to point out that some of the  most
intense
space weather storms have occurred during solar cycles having low  sunspot
numbers. For example, two of the eight most intense geomagnetic storms
during the
last ~150 years occurred during solar cycle 14, while three of the  five
strongest energetic proton events at greater than 30 MeV since 1859
occurred during
solar cycle 13 when the peak sunspot number plateaued at only  88. The
scientists note that the next solar cycle could prove to be an excellent
  test-bed
for a number of models and theories concerning the solar cycle and  solar
activity.
A direct measure of the strength of the solar  polar fields will be
possible
during 2007-2008 when the Ulysses space probe will  make another pass
over the
solar poles. Dr. Svalgaard and his colleagues fully  expect the strength of
the polar fields measured during these polar passes will  be significantly
smaller than the strength of the fields that were observed  during the
polar
passes of 1994 and 1995 during the minimum phase of the last  solar
cycle. This
would help validate their prediction of a much smaller solar  maximum
during the
next solar cycle than has been observed in recent memory.
This research was published in the Geophysical  Research Letters, volume 32
on 11 January 2005 (L01104,  doi:10.1029/2004GL021664, 2005) by the
_American
Geophysical Union_ (http://www.agu.org/) .
[1]Leif Svalgaard, Edward W. Cliver, and Yohsuke  Kamide (2005), Sunspot
cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?, Geophys. Res.  Lett., 32, L01104,
doi:10.1029