[K3PZN-List] Mesoscale Discussion 1995

Fri, 27 Sep 2002 19:43:48 -0400

Heads skywarn!

~ke3vin

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1995
Date: Fri, 27 Sep 2002 18:29:46 -0500 (CDT)
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]

ACUS11 KWNS 272325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272324
VAZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-280230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...DC...CENTRAL/NERN MD...SERN PA...SWRN
NJ...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 272324Z - 280230Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BANDS HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS BRIEF TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS NERN
VA...CENTRAL MD...DC AREA AND NEWD TOWARD SERN PA/SWRN NJ/NRN DE
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 2Z.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW.

SURFACE STREAMLINES INDICATE WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE CORRESPONDING
TO BAND OF CONVECTION NOT YET PRODUCING CG LIGHTNING -- LOCATED
ATTM FROM CJR AREA NEWD TOWARD IAD.  CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS
NNEWD INTO ERN PA AND SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD PA/NJ BORDER DURING
NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AND SHOWING INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION AMIDST ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...PER MODIFIED VWP
HODOGRAPHS.  MODIFIED 18Z IAD RAOB AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE LESS THAN 500
J/KG...BECAUSE OF WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING
DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL THETAE
WILL REMAIN IN AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL...RELATIVELY SHALLOW... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES POSSIBLE.

.EDWARDS.. 09/27/2002

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

39997473 39007605 38207749 38367798 38817809 39877673
40427517 40197467

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to [email protected] with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message.  For more information see
http://wxlist.centerone.com or write [email protected].