[HoustonHam] FW: Edited ARRL Propagation Report 18 Feb.

[Chris Boone]

-----Original Message-----
Edited ARRL Propagation Report 18 Feb.

QST ARLP007 Propagation 

Cycle 24 solar activity is underway, with sunspot numbers and solar  flux 
not seen since 2005-2006.  Tuesday's sunspot number of 100 has not  been 
equaled or exceeded since April 6, 2006 when it was 105.    Wednesday the
solar 
flux was 114.1, and
the last time it was that high or  higher was September 15, 2005 at 119.4.

Average daily sunspot numbers  rose this week by more than 25 points
to 69.9, and average daily solar flux  was up 20 points to 103.5.

NOAA/USAF predicts solar flux at 110 on  February 18-19, 105 on
February 20, 100 on February 21, and 105 on February  22-24.
Planetary A index is predicted at 25 and 12 on February 18-19, and  5
on February 20-28, then rising to 7, 10, 10 and 7 on March  1-4.

Geophysical Institute Prague predicts active conditions on  February
18, unsettled to active February 19, unsettled February 20, quiet  to
unsettled February 21, and quiet conditions February  22-24.

A geomagnetic storm is predicted for today, Friday, just  before the start 
of the ARRL International DX CW Contest, due to two coronal  mass ejections,

one February 13 at 1735z,  the other February 15 at  0156z.  
 
Most of this week's activity was from large sunspot group 1158, about  to 
rotate out of view.    More centrally positioned is sunspot 1161,  and there

seems to be a new sunspot emerging above it.  

Resources for updates on solar activity,
_http://www.solarstormwatch.com_ (http://www.solarstormwatch.com) 
 
and via Twitter which can be read without a Twitter account
_http://twitter.com/solarstormwatch_ (http://twitter.com/solarstormwatch) 

An  article on the ARRL web site about sunspot 1158 and this week's
activity  mentions that "According to NASA, the Sun will reach its
next maximum this  year, give or take one year."
_http://www.arrl.org/news/sunspot-1158-produces-largest-flare-of-solar-cycle
-24-cme-headed-toward-earth_ 
(http://www.arrl.org/news/sunspot-1158-produces-largest-flare-of-solar-cycle
-24-cme-headed-toward-earth) 

The only certainty is, no one knows.  Have  fun.