[HCRA] storm coordination message from KD1CY

Fri May 19 08:48:27 EDT 2006

Hello to all….

….Rainfall Today Will Slow Recession of Rivers and Streams and May Even
Cause Slight Rises on These Rivers and Streams but Renewed Flooding is
Not Expected Today Except for Potentially Poor Drainage and Urban Areas.
An additional 0.40-0.80” of rainfall with isolated 1” amounts are
possible in the region this morning…..

….If Enough Sunshine and Destablization Occurs, There is A Risk of Strong
Thunderstorms with Small Hail and SPC Has Much of the Area in a 5% Risk
for Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail the Primary Threat for This
Afternoon and Early Evening….

….SKYWARN Self-Activation May Be Required for Parts of Today for Any New
Flood Risk and for the Potential of Thunderstorms Producing Hail Later
This Afternoon. Ops at NWS Taunton Do Not Appear to Be Required but the
Situation Will Be Monitored….

There are some low grade risks to our weather here in Southern New
England today. At 645 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rain and
embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms moving north-northeastward
over the region. This rainfall will produce a quick 0.40-0.80” of
rainfall with isolated 1” amounts around the region this morning. At this
time, rainfall of this amount should not cause renewed flooding but it
will slow down the recession process of area rivers and streams and may
cause slight rises. In addition, urban and poor drainage areas may have
brief flooding issues during the rainfall. Please report any renewed
flooding of any areas to NWS as needed today.

After this area of rainfall moves through, there will be a break in the
precipitation. There may also be sunshine. If this occurs, the
atmosphere’s instability parameters are sufficient for another round of
showers and potentially thunderstorms. Those instability parameters may
be sufficient for thunderstorms with hail and a few isolated
thunderstorms with large hail. SPC has much of Southern New England in a
5% risk for severe thunderstorms today with large hail the primary threat
for this afternoon and evening. Please report hail of 1/8” in diameter or
larger to NWS Taunton as needed.

SKYWARN Self-Activation maybe required initially this morning for any new
flood risk and then potentially later this or evening for the potential
of thunderstorms producing hail this afternoon and evening. Ops at NWS
Taunton do not appear to be required but the situation will be monitored.

This will be the only coordination message on this situation unless
renewed flooding or the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
increase to the extent that NWS Taunton Ops are required. Below are the
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Special Weather Statement and
the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

FLUS41 KBOX 190943

HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

545 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-200945-

BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BRISTOL-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE-

DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN-

EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK-

EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-

NORTHERN WORCESTER-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-

SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-WASHINGTON-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-

WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT-WESTERN NORFOLK-

WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM-

545 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE

ISLAND...AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN

NEW HAMPSHIRE. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR SEVERAL RIVERS IN

THIS REGION AS WELL AS FOR THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER. PLEASE REFER

TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT (BOSFLSBOX) FOR MORE DETAILED

INFORMATION.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION

THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A SHORT DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH...WHICH COULD CAUSE

BRIEF STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS RENEWED SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUTLINING THIS

WEATHER SCENARIO (BOSSPSBOX).

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

ALONG OUR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN

POSTED FOR ROUGH SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS FOR SATURDAY...WITH AN EVEN BETTER

CHANCE ON SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND

DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS.

DESPITE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RIVERS ARE

EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RECEDE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST

THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SPOTTERS

SHOULD BE PREPARED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING FROM RAINFALL TODAY

AND EARLY TONIGHT.

$$

KAB

WWUS81 KBOX 190935

SPSBOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

534 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-191600-

BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-

CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-

EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-

EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-

NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-

SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-

WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-

534 AM EDT FRI MAY 19 2006

..HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING

WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT RISES ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND CAUSE SOME

POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...

LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST AT DAWN WILL

TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR MONTAUK POINT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN RACE

NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY

MOVING ACROSS CONNECTICUT AT DAWN. THIS WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD

RAINFALL OF 0.40 TO 0.80 INCH TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH

AS MUCH AS ONE INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE MANY OF OUR RIVERS TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN

EXPERIENCE SLIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BEFORE RESUMING THE

RECESSION PROCESS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILED FORECASTS ON OUR

AREA RIVERS PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.  IN

ADDITION...THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE

STREET FLOODING PARTICULARLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN

MASSACHUSETTS...SPECIFICALLY FROM WORCESTER AND POINTS WESTWARD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA

FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

$$

NOCERA

  SPC AC 190537

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OZARKS REGION TO TN VALLEY....

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   VERY STABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE SYNOPTIC RIDGE OVER WRN

   NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH IN ERN PORTIONS CONUS/CANADA. SHORTWAVE

   TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN SASK --

   SHOULD AMPLIFY AND DIG SEWD WHILE LEAVING MEAN RIDGE POSITION. AS

   THIS OCCURS...PRONOUNCED MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY OVER LE

   REGION IS FCST TO MOVE EWD THEN NNEWD ACROSS NY AND SRN QUE.  WEAK

   PERTURBATION OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS

   CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS.  ASSOCIATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW -- NOW

   WEAKLY EVIDENT OVER ND -- IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS IT

   PROPAGATES SEWD ALONG CURRENTLY QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. 

   THIS LOW SHOULD CROSS OZARKS REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY

   EVENING.

   ...ERN NJ TO SRN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AREA...

   AIR MASS MAY HEAT/RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY AFTER MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP

   TO PERMIT ADDITIONAL TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY

   PRODUCE HAIL.  AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APCHS...MIDLEVEL

   ASCENT/COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.  CINH

   SHOULD BE SMALL...REQUIRING ONLY WEAK SFC HEATING TO CONVECT IN FCST

   SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG.  UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT

   SPEED/STRENGTH OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL

   OUTLOOK ATTM.  STRONG-SVR TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY

   WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON INSOLATION.

   ..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2006

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

 Eric Tuller   N1QKO
Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for W.MA. M.E.M.A. Region 3 Radio Operator
Emergency Coordinator for the MTARA.  KB1HGK   Radio Operators for
Missing Children
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