[HCRA] Coordination message for the 1st week of Aug.

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

 Eric Tuller   N1QKO
Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for W.MA.    Ware Emergency Management
Communcations
Emergency Coordinator for the MTARA.  KB1HGK   Radio Operators for
Missing Children
CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

Hello to all….

 

….Mother Nature Has More Interesting Surprises for Southern New England
this week in the form of the most intense heat/humidity of the summer
with temperatures’ soaring to the 95-100 degree range and the potential
for a Nocturnal Severe Thunderstorm Event known as the Mesoscale
Convective System late Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning….

….SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Maybe Required in the
overnight hours after 10 PM Monday Night through portions of Tuesday
Morning….

 

Intense heat and humidity is expected this week across much of Southern
New England. While Southern New England is no stranger to heat and
humidity, this will have the potential to be the most intense heat and
humidity of the summer with temperatures soaring through 90 degrees and
may approach or exceed 100 degrees with heat indices potentially being
100+ degrees across the region. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued
for Hampden County Mass and Hartford County CT for Tuesday Afternoon and
Evening. This could cause issues for children and the elderly and create
air quality issues. At this time, no energy consumption issues are
expected with this intense heat and possible heat wave. This will be the
only reference to the heat issues with the exception of the reference
within the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Heat Safety Rule information can be
found at the following link:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/heat_wave.shtml

 

Before the most intense heat arrives, a warm front will move through the
region Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning and with it will come the
potential threat of a fairly strong complex of thunderstorms that can
occur at night known as the Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). These
systems are considered a particular threat because they have the
potential to occur during the night when most people are sleeping. Those
that have NOAA Weather Radios with the weather radio alert feature are
advised to have those radios armed to alert them of the threat for
possible severe weather late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. 

 

Per the latest model runs, models are forecasting the Mesoscale
Convective System to move from out of Ontario Canada and race
Southeastward through the Adirondacks, Vermont and into portions of
Southern New England. There is still uncertainty in the track of this
system. The current feeling is that the greatest threat exists for
Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts as the MCS will spill
into this area with the potential for wind damage and possibly large
hail. With the uncertainty in the track of this MCS, it’s possible it
could remain far enough north of Southern New England to miss our area or
it could spill further south and affect much of the region. Given this
event could occur during the overnight hours, an early head’s up on this
potential threat is being made so that people can protect themselves
appropriately against a nocturnal severe weather threat and reports can
be received as needed and when possible.

 

While Southern New England rarely gets severe weather during the
overnight hours, it can occur at varying scales and some examples of how
nocturnal events, including MCS’ affected the region are listed below to
give a range of possibilities of what could occur if the MCS tracks into
any part of Southern New England:

 

Friday July 2nd, 2004 Event:

This was an event that had severe weather occurring during the overnight
hours with hail and wind damage noted across portions of Massachusetts
and Northern Rhode Island.

 

August 10th, 2000 Event:

This was an event with numerous storms evolving into a MCS with severe
weather and one long lived supercell that produced a 2 mile wide/50 mile
long path of hail up to Golf Ball Sized, and wind damage through Northern
Connecticut, Northern Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Other
wind damage and hail events occurred in other parts of Southeast New
England.

 

September 7th, 1998 Event:

This was a large Mesoscale Convective System that caused widespread wind
damage over a large area of New York State and spilled into Southern New
Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts with hail and wind damage in
various parts of those areas of Southern New England.

 

July 15th, 1995 Event:

This event was the most recent major event where a Mesoscale Convective
System organized and caused extreme wind damage events and even
tornadoes. When a complex is this large, it can also be called a derecho
which is Spanish for “Big Wind” or “Windstorm”. This system traversed
from Ontario Canada through New England with widespread wind damage and
hail all the way to the Massachusetts, Rhode Island coast line. A paper
was written by NWS Albany on this event and it is listed below:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/Past/derecho95/derecho.html

 

The next coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday. Below are
the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook on the heat and severe weather
and the Special Weather Statement on the intense heat wave:

 

FLUS41 KBOX 302007

HWOBOX

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

407 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

 

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-

RIZ001>008-311100-

BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-BOSTON HARBOR-BRISTOL-

BUZZARDS BAY-CAPE COD BAY-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE-

COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT

40 NM-

COASTAL WATERS FROM NANTUCKET MA TO MARTHAS VINEYARD MA TO BLOCK

ISLAND RI TO MONTAUK NY SOUTHEAST TO 20NM-

COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA

OUT 20 NM-DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN-

EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK-

EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NANTUCKET SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-

NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-NORTHERN WORCESTER-

NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-

SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-VINEYARD SOUND-

WASHINGTON-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT-

WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM-

407 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN

MASSACHUSETTS...MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN NEW

HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

 

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR HARTFORD AND

HAMPDEN COUNTIES IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY

AFTERNOON.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110

DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HEAT

INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT PERHAPS

THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST.

 

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL

RANGE BETWEEN 96 AND 102 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXTREMELY

DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED

ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE

AND ISLANDS.  EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE

REST OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.

 

THE UPCOMING HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME FOR SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND...AND NOT AN ORDINARY HEATWAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY

DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE ELDERLY...CHILDREN...AND THOSE WHO WORK

OUTSIDE...AND COULD BE LIFE THREATENING IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

 

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PLAN ON ALTERING THEIR DAILY

ROUTINE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE RISK OF

HEAT EXHAUSTION...OR WORSE...BEING A CASUALTY OF LIFE THREATENING

HEAT STROKE.  AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE

MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAR LOOSE FITTING AND LIGHTWEIGHT

CLOTHING. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONING

IF POSSIBLE.

 

NO PERSON OR PET SHOULD EVER STAY IN AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE EVEN FOR

THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE TO LIFE

THREATENING LEVELS...EVEN IF THE WINDOWS ARE PARTIALLY OPENED.

 

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO

POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX OF

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW YORK STATE

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE

SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  THE BEST

CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST

MASSACHUSETTS...BUT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS

THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD

BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND

LIGHTNING.

 

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY

NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING

AN END TO THE EXTREME HEAT.

 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 10 PM MONDAY NIGHT

FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

 

$$

 

FRANK

 

WWUS81 KBOX 302054

SPSBOX

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

452 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

 

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>007-311000-

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-

WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-

SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-

SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-

WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-

SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-

EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-

EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...

VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...

ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...

GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...

SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...

CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...

FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...AYER...JAFFREY...

KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...

SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...

NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT

452 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

 

...DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND 

WEDNESDAY...

 

OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN 

THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S WITH 

HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES.  THE WORST OF THE HEAT ON TUESDAY 

WILL BE IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY...AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS 

BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 

DEGREES.

 

LIGHT SEABREEZES AND MORNING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING 

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY DELAY THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT UNTIL WEDNESDAY 

FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES HERE 

SHOULD STILL REACH 90 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 

DEGREES.

 

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY...WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 

RANGE BETWEEN 96 AND 102 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT A 

LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST.  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS 

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 110 DEGREES.

 

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE URBAN CENTERS AROUND BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND 

HARTFORD MAY NOT FALL MUCH BELOW 80 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT AND 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

 

THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS MORE 

UNCERTAINTY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.  THE BEST 

CHANCE OF THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUING IS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AS   

COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW 

HAMPSHIRE.

 

THIS FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW 

ENGLAND BY FRIDAY.

 

THE UPCOMING HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME FOR SOUTHERN NEW 

ENGLAND...AND NOT ORDINARY HOT SUMMERTIME WEATHER. THIS WILL RESULT 

IN A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE ELDERLY...CHILDREN...AND THOSE 

WHO WORK OUTSIDE...AND COULD BE LIFE THREATENING IF PRECAUTIONS ARE 

NOT TAKEN.

 

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PLAN ON ALTERING THEIR DAILY

ROUTINE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE RISK OF

HEAT EXHAUSTION...OR WORSE...BEING A CASUALTY OF LIFE THREATENING

HEAT STROKE.

 

AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING 

THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE.

 

NO PERSON OR PET SHOULD EVER STAY IN AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE EVEN FOR 

THE SHORTEST AMOUNT OF TIME. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE TO LIFE 

THREATENING LEVELS...EVEN IF THE WINDOWS ARE PARTIALLY OPENED.

 

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR

UPDATED INFORMATION.

 

$$

 

KJC

 

Respectfully Submitted,

 

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

Pager #: (508) 354-3142

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)

Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)

Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)

Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com

http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo