[HCRA] Coordination message for Tuesday 18 July

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

 Eric Tuller   N1QKO
Assistant SKYWARN Coordinator for W.MA.    Ware Emergency Management
Emergency Coordinator for the MTARA.  KB1HGK   Radio Operators for
Missing Children
CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires


Hello to all....

....Potential Exists for More Severe Weather in Southern New England as a
cold front brings a temporary reprieve to the heat and humidity for a
couple of days over the region after Tuesday....
....Situation for Severe Weather Could be Quite Potent with damaging
winds,
large hail and isolated supercells assuming the Cold Front is strong
enough
to breakthrough a capping mechanism in the atmosphere. Timeframe would be
anytime from mid-afternoon through late evening....
....SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Tuesday
Afternoon
and Evening....

For Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Conditions will
be
extremely unstable and the cold front should provide sufficient lifting
and
other forcing mechanism to tap into this extremely unstable atmosphere to
cause strong to severe thunderstorms across the region with damaging
winds
and large hail the primary threats. There would also be a threat for
isolated supercells. A widespread severe thunderstorm event is occurring
upstream in Michigan and the potential is there for this activity to
spread
into Southern New England assuming the cold front holds the jet dynamics
required to break the cap and tap into the extremely unstable atmosphere
to
cause severe weather. The timeframe for this event would be anywhere from
2-3 PM EDT through the late evening timeframe on Tuesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely in the Tuesday
Afternoon and Evening timeframe. Further details and a better risk
assessment of what may happen from a severe weather perspective will be
in
the Tuesday Morning coordination message. Below is the NWS Taunton
Special
Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

WWUS81 KBOX 172008
SPSBOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>022-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>007-181015-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...
PROVINCETOWN...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT
408 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AND WILL COME
TO AN END WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

IT WAS A HOT AND HUMID DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AS
HIGHS REACHED THE MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 IN SPOTS.
BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS TEMPERATURE AT 3 32 PM WAS ONE DEGREE
SHY OF THE RECORD OF 97 DEGREES SET IN 1999.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WORST
OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AFFECT HARTFORD...SPRINGFIELD...
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND TAUNTON. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

PEOPLE SHOULD FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY TIPS. AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER AND OTHER NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES. CHECK ON THOSE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT...INCLUDING THE ELDERLY AND YOUNG
CHILDREN.

IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE BY MID
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS WILL
UNFOLD BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.

$$

STRAUSS

FLUS41 KBOX 172001
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-
RIZ001>008-181058-
BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-BOSTON HARBOR-BRISTOL-
BUZZARDS BAY-CAPE COD BAY-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NANTUCKET MA TO MARTHAS VINEYARD MA TO BLOCK
ISLAND RI TO MONTAUK NY SOUTHEAST TO 20NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NANTUCKET SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-
NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-NORTHERN WORCESTER-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-VINEYARD SOUND-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT-
WESTERN NORFOLK-WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM-
358 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR HARTFORD
COUNTY FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WERE ALSO
NEAR 100 IN NASHUA NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MARSHFIELD MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS 5 DAY WARM SPELL WITH
OFFICIAL 3 DAY HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS AT MANY LOCATIONS JUST 10 MILES
MILES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS.

TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN TOP OUT WITH 2 DEGREES OF RECORDS AT HARTFORD
AND WORCESTER AS WELL IN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE WHERE TODAYS SEA
BREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY.

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGER AREA OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...
CHANCES ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR GUSTY
WEST WINDS OF EXCEEDING 70 MPH.  AGAIN...WE ARE NOT YET CERTAIN OF
THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AND ANY STORMS COULD BE COVERING ONLY SMALL
PATHS IN OUR REGION. LATEST INFORMATION PLACES SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS THE MOST
FAVORED AREAS FOR AN ISOLATED BUT NOTABLE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM TUESDAY.

$$
DRAG

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo