[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
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    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Thu, 6 May 2004 08:08:58 -0400
Subject: Severe Weather Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <001701c43363$69c34400$0d66accf@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all....

....The First Widespread Severe Weather Event Is Possible Over Southern
New
England Tonight in the form of a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System....
....The Storm Prediction Center Has Placed all of Southern New England in
a
Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms for Tonight for this potential MCS
with
Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the Primary Threats....
....SKYWARN Formal Activation With Ops at NWS Taunton Are Possible
Tonight....

The first widespread severe weather event is possible over Southern New
England tonight in the form of a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System.
Mesoscale Convective System's are known for forming in the evening hours
and
can traverse a region during the nighttime hours. These type of systems
usually have considerable rotation resulting in damaging winds and large
hail with the severe thunderstorms in the system. Severe Weather
Parameters,
per the latest weather model runs during the overnight period, appear to
be
very favorable for the development of the MCS with the potential for it
to
sustain itself into Southern New England. Probability guidance from SPC
would seem to favor Large Hail as the primary threat with damaging winds
also a concern particularly in Western New England.

Future model runs will be analyzed to determine areas that have the
greatest
threat for Severe Weather in Southern New England. It would seem that
Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Southwest New Hampshire
are
at the greatest risk for severe weather at this time though the slight
risk
for severe weather per SPC extends all the way to coastal RI and Eastern
Massachusetts and also includes Cape Cod and the Islands. It is possible
that severe weather maybe able to sustain itself to near the coastal
areas
because the flow aloft is out of the Northwest and could keep the
mitigating
influence of the cool ocean waters to immediate coastal areas.

At this time, the threat of Severe Weather would appear to be after 8 PM
tonight and maybe more likely after 10-11 PM this evening into the early
Friday morning hours. If this timeframe is correct, it will make it that
much more difficult to obtain reports of severe weather over the region.
Those spotters and coordinators who have flexible schedules are asked to
try
to make themselves available for this timeframe if current model trends
on a
late night severe weather event are accurate.

SKYWARN Activation is possible tonight with formal ops at the National
Weather Service in Taunton. If we do activate formally, non-Amateur
Spotters
can look for us via the AOL Instant Messenger under the screen name
"WX1BOX"
as another way to report directly into NWS Taunton. If you contact us,
you
will be contacting Amateur Radio Operators who will be manning the
Amateur
Station at the National Weather Service and they will give the reports to
the forecasters. If you do not see the screen name up, please report
directly via the spotter line.

If the event occurs later tonight as expected, another Severe Weather
Coordination Message updating the situation will follow by 9-10 PM this
evening. If the event occurs prior to midnight, this will be the only
message posted on this situation. Alphanumeric pages will be posted
throughout the day to update the threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Severe
Weather Outlook, Hazardous WX Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

WWUS81 KBOX 060901
SPSBOX

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-061500-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
501 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA OF
MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

FLUS41 KBOX 060947
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
546 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-070930-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
546 AM EDT THU MAY 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
THE AREA OF MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
AT THIS TIME NO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW THE LATEST MODEL RUNS RESOLVE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT.  PLEASE STAY TUNED.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

$$

KAB

 SPC AC 060549

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2004

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
   JFK ABE AOO HLG MIE DNV PIA OTM 45 W LWD BIE HSI GRI OFK FOD LNR 35
   N MKG 30 SSE OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW MSS 15 W MPV 10 ESE PSM.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP ALM 4CR 25
   WNW TCC LHX CYS DGW SHR 10 SSE LVM 10 SE BTM LMT MFR RDM PDT 10 SSE
   3TH GTF SDY BIS FAR HIB 125 NNE CMX ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 3B1 15 E
   BHB ...CONT... 15 ESE NEL TTN CXY DCA 30 SSW NHK 30 WNW ECG FLO 35
   NW CHS 40 ENE SAV SSI JAX GNV CTY MAI MGM AUO MCN AND PSK EKN PKB
   DAY MTO UIN LWD CNK DDC PVW LBB 65 NNE ABI MWL ACT 10 SSE SAT 40 W
   MFE.

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR GREAT LAKES REGION
   INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY....

   SPLIT IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
   PACIFIC THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM OF BLOCK OFF THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...MERGING BRANCHES OF
   STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL...EXTENDING EASTWARD
   NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN U.S. BORDER.

   INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ARE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
   CENTRAL INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TIGHTEN  IN EAST-WEST BAND
   AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN STATES.
   BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM
   NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...
   PRIMARILY WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ...GREAT LAKES REGION...
   INCREASING CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
   DAYTIME HOURS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NEW YORK STATE. MEAN
   MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP...AS
   CAP SUPPRESSES CONVECTION EARLY AND ALLOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
   SURFACE HEATING.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES...MODELS
   GENERALLY SUGGEST AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK
   HEATING.  THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...JUST
   AHEAD OF BASE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.

   GIVEN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING...POTENTIAL
   EXISTS FOR EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM.  RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY 40 TO 50 KT
   WESTERLY MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER
   LAKES INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY.

   ..KERR.. 05/06/2004

   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo