[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather and Flash Flood Coordination Message

[et-n1qko at juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo at rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 07:33:19 -0400
Subject: Severe Weather and Flash Flood Coordination Message
Message-ID: <004b01c4545f$754578d0$0a00a8c0 at computer1>

Hello to all....

....Isolated to Scattered Severe Thunderstorms May Occur Today in
Southern
New England. Damaging Winds and Large Hail would be the primary threats.
In
addition, thunderstorms may be slow-moving or back build over the same
areas
resulting in the possibility of flash flooding.....
....Thunderstorms will begin to develop between 1-4 PM and then continue
over much of the area through the evening hours....
....Some form of SKYWARN Activation is Possible Today. Ops at NWS Taunton
may or may not be needed....

Today, a slow moving cold front will approach the area from the west.
This
front coupled with daytime heating will form thunderstorms today. An
isolated to scattered thunderstorm may become severe with large hail or
damaging winds possible. In addition, thunderstorms maybe slow moving or
back build and train over the same areas. This may result in areas of
flash
flooding. Thunderstorms will begin to form between 1-4 PM and continue
through the evening hours.

In looking at the latest satellite pictures, there is quite a bit of
cloud
cover over the Northeast US. This may serve to mitigate the thunderstorm
threat but if the clouds burn off and daytime heating commences as
forecast
then the threat as described above will materialize.

Some form of SKYWARN Activation is possible today. It is not clear
whether
it will be a self-activation or formal activation. Ops at NWS Taunton may
or
may not be needed for this event. This will be the only email on this
situation but pages will be sent throughout the day to update the threat.
Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion, Flood Statement and
Hazardous Weather Outlook:

FLUS41 KBOX 170958
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
538 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-181030-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
538 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM OVER
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST TO THE COAST THIS EVENING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT. THIS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS
IN A FEW SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS WILL RESPOND WITH RAPID RISES IN AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THESE EASTWARD MOVING STORMS.

ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...LIGHTNING WILL POSE THE MAIN RISK AS
IT SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD TOWARD EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT WILL BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB SITE...WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/BOX

$$

FRANK



WGUS81 KBOX 170909
FLSBOX

CTC003-013-015-MAC011-013-015-027-171445-

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
506 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM OVER
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT... THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST THIS EVENING INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT.

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF BUT SIGNIFICANT
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HARTFORD...
HAMPDEN AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

SMALL STREAMS WILL RESPOND WITH RAPID RISES IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THESE EASTWARD MOVING STORMS.

LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EAST TO THE
THE SPRINGFIELD...HARTFORD AREA. PREPARE FOR SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
LATE TODAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE ONE OR 2 OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO BE ALERT FOR SUBSTANTIAL PONDING ON SOME OF
THE AREA ROADS LATE TODAY ALLOWING EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL...AND
CHILDREN SHOULD STAND CLEAR OF THE SLIPPERY BANKS OF SMALL STREAMS
THIS EVENING.

$$
DRAG

FXUS61 KBOX 171025 AAB
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL MID SHIFT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
624 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

...FLOOD POTENTIAL LATE TDY INTO TONIGHT FOR PTNS OF SNE...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE PRELIM 1AM DRAFT ENDED UP CLOSE TO OUR FINAL PRODUCT.  THE 06Z
RUNS ARE IN LINE WITH OUR THINKING.  LOTS OF CHAT COLLAB BTWN
OFFICES.

LATE MORNING UPDATES PROBABLY WANTS TO BE A BIT QUICKER ON THUNDER
ENTERING THE PICTURE LATE THIS AFTN CENTRAL MASS.  AM NOT BUYING THE
NORTHERLY AXIS OF THE MAX QPF...THINKING CLOSER TO THE MAIN BOUNDARY
OF HEAT...SOMEWHERE CLOSER TO I90 INSTEAD OF N OF RTE 2. AGAIN THIS
COULD BE WRONG BUT ADJUSTED S FOR BOUNDARY CONSIDERATION...BEST
INFLOW AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY.

THE LATE MORNING UPDATE MAY WANT TO RAISE TEMPS MAYBE 3F OR SO IN
A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH BOS INTERIOR SUBURBS TO TAUNTON
(UPPER 80S).

OTRW NCEP MODELS AND BTVETA/SUMM5 AGREE ON HVY CONVECTIVE RFALL
EVENT...BUT WHERE? BTV ETA DN SUMM5 AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE
ON POTENCY OF QPF.

BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS INCLUDING MODEST STORM OUTFLOWS
WILL BE THE KEY TO REPEAT ECHO'S AND A POSSIBLE SUPERCELL. WE THINK
"ISOLATED" 5 INCH RFALL POSSIBLE IN THIS EVENT IN 3 HRS DUE TO PW
INCREASING TO ARD 2" LATE TDY. RFALL RATES EASILY IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR
FOR 30 MIN PERIODS...POSSIBLY DOUBLE THAT. FFMP SHOULD BE HELPFUL
NEXT 24 HRS. WE ISSUED AN FLS (NOT A WATCH) BUT A HEADS UP STMT FOR
SHORT TERM POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING/LIGHTNIGN STRIKES POWER OUTAGES BUT
THE MAIN THREAT FLOODING. MIDDAY PRODUCTS MAY WANT TO TARGET A FF
WATCH BASED ON REASSESSMENTS. CONTG HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO THE
NIGHT IS NOT TYPICAL AND WHAT WE NOW THINK IS BEST QPF IN THE 21Z-05Z
TIME FRAME.

SKYWARN HELP MAY BE NEEDED.

OUR GRAPHIC QPF WAS PUSHED UP FROM THE GFS VALUES TO GET THE
FORMATTERS TO WORD RW+ AND SHIFTED AXIS S BY ABT 50 MILES...
CLOSER TO THE ETA AXIS HEAVIEST QPF.

SVR: WE REVIEWED THE SPC DAY 1. CKING THE KEY PARMS...DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE SVR "CRITERIA" BUT CANT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. BLV LOTS OF
LIGHTNING DUE TO HIGH CAPE AND INSTAB LATE TDY IN W MA AND W CT. TT
ARE DOWN..WIND FIELDS LIGHT..BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A SUPERCELL.
ONE NOTE TO OUR KNOWLEDGE NO SVR E OF ~90W (UPSTREAM) IN THE PAST 16
HRS. THAT ALSO TENDS TO DAMPEN ENTHUSIASM FOR SVR BUT AGAIN...NOT
IMPOSSIBLE.

COORD UPSTREAM OFFICES ALB/OKX AND HPC HAS OCCURRED VIA 12P AND
BRIEF TELCON TO HPC.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE COME TO AN END BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST EAST WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH
AND THE COLD OCEAN SHOULD HOLD HIGHS IN THE 60S. SLIGHTLY
CONCERNED THAT CONVECTION MAY TRY TO FIRE OUT WEST ON THE OLD
SOMEWHAT DIFUSE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO MESOSCALE
EFFECTS SO FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND LET LATER
SHIFTS ASSESS.

OTHERWISE...BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SATURATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE OCEAN WILL GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT...SHOULD ERODE THE
LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE MORNING. PROCESS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ON
THE COAST...BUT EXPECT TO SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EVEN HERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH WHICH WOULD MIX OUT OUR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL SO STAY TUNED.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL JUST BE MAKING SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
EXTENDED. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR (EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG/ST SE NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING)
DECREASING TO MVFR HAZE THIS AFTN OR EVE AND IN TSTMS WITH LIFR FOG
DVLPG S COAST LATE TDY OR THIS EVE. ACK COULD BE DEALING WITH IFR
FOG OFF AND ON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRI AND WE SPREAD THE IFR
FOG INTO MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

.SHORT TERM...DRAG
.LONG TERM...FRANK

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo at rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo