[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Tue, 17 Feb 2004 07:44:04 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <02d001c3f554$0eb38590$bbb63bd0@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

....Potential Winter Storm Expected Wednesday and Wednesday Night. Track
Remains Very Uncertain But the Trend of The Storm for the Past Couple of
Model Runs is Further North Towards Southern New England. Greatest threat
for snow is over South Coastal RI, South Coastal Masachusetts and Cape
Cod
and the Islands....
....Snowfall Amounts Are Very Uncertain and Further Model Runs Should
Better
Highlight the Snowfall Potential Across the Region. In Addition, we will
need to monitor the threat of Coastal Flooding at the time of high tide
across North and east facing beaches of Southeast Massachusetts....
....SKYWARN Activation is Possible on Wednesday Pending the Track of this
System, the amount of snowfall and the threat for any Coastal
Flooding....

For several days, models have been continuing to track a coastal storm
system off the North Carolina coast that would move southeast of the
"benchmark" of 40 N/70 W. The trend of the most reliable computer models,
however, is for a track closer to that benchmark with precipitation
occurring over portions of Southern New England with the greatest threat
of
heavier precipitation over South Coastal RI, South Coastal Massachusetts
and
Cape Cod and the Islands.

Models have had a very difficult time with this system so this is a low
confidence forecast. There is roughly a 30-40% chance of greater 6"
snowfall
across Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island with this system. The
confidence on what happens with this storm system should increase as we
get
closer to the event and could result in some form of Winter Storm Watches
or
Winter Weather Advisories later today. If the track of the storm system
is
close enough, coastal flooding at the time of an astronomical high tide
could occur across north and east facing beaches of Southeast
Massachusetts.

Given that the storm system is roughly just 24-36 hours away, all SKYWARN
Spotters and Coordinators should monitor the latest forecasts and
statements
from NWS Taunton. SKYWARN Activation of some form is possible if the
track
of the system continues its trend of being further north toward the
region.

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous WX Outlook, Special Weather Statement
and
Area Forecast Discussion:

FLUS41 KBOX 171107
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
606 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-181030-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
606 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A COASTAL STORM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY.   THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER WEDNESDAY.  SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WEDNESDAY...APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM WILLIMANTIC CONNECTICUT TO PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TAPER OFF EARLY
THURSDAY.  THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...
HOWEVER THERE IS APPROXIMATELY A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  STAY TUNED TO
LATER FORECASTS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

IN ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  IF THE COASTAL STORM TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH...THE
POTENTIAL EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.  LATER THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC AIR MAY
RETURN TO THE REGION

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

$$

NOCERA

WWUS81 KBOX 171104
SPSBOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
604 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-171700-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
604 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004

...THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EXISTS ACROSS A PORTION
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THEN TAPER
OFF TO FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET
OR RAIN FOR A TIME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE
EXACT TRACK AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET
ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

$$

STRAUSS/NOCERA

FXUS61 KBOX 171040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2004...UPDATED

.UPDATE...
FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...LATEST 06Z RUNS OF GFS AND ETA ARE NOW DEEPER
AND FARTHER NORTH THAN 00Z CYCLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND QPF
FIELDS.  06Z GFS NOW HAS STORM TOTAL QPF OF 0.75 AT NANTUCKET (UP
FROM 0.25 IN 00Z) RUN.  THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ITS 0.25 QPF CONTOUR
NOW UP TO A GON-PVD-PYM LINE. LIKEWISE FOR THE 06Z ETA...QPF FIELD
AND HIGHER QPF FARTHER NORTH THIS RUN.  WILL HOLD FORECAST AS IS AND
INFORM NEXT SHIFT ON DEVELOPING TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z)...
1040 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
DOWNEAST MAINE WILL HEAD OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GALVANIZE STRENGTH. LATEST
INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG EAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. THE STRATOCUMULUS
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING THEN DISPERSE...THOUGH MORE
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS AT 850
MILLIBARS. MEANWHILE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH 06Z. THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE GOOD
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM 850 THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS...GOOD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM 850 THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AT 250 MILLIBARS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
06Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO 06Z...MAINLY IN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS.

OVERALL MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURE GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND THICKEN.
30 PERCENT POPS LOOKED REASONABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA JUST PRIOR TO 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM (06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A
COASTAL/OCEAN STORM TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.  DESPITE BOTH THE ETA
AND GFS TAKING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK
(40N/70W)...THEIR TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROF.  THIS BRINGS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS (ALBEIT FAIRLY STRONG) ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.  THIS KEEPS HEAVIEST QPF
JUST OFFSHORE...HOWEVER BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING MEASURABLE QPF INTO
S.COASTAL ZONES.  GFS STORM TOTAL QPF FOR NANTUCKET IS ABOUT
0.30...WITH THE ETA AND THE CANADIAN INDICATING A MUCH SHARPER QPF
GRADIENT...WITH UP TO 1.0 INCH OF QPF AT NANTUCKET PER ETA.

IN ADDITION...AS NOTED BY HPC 00Z RAOB/UPPER AIR WINDS WERE STRONGER
THAN MODEL WINDS WITH THE JET STREAK DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.  THE COMBINATION OF
MODELS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND UPPER JET
STRONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT...COULD BRING SHARP QPF GRADIENT FARTHER
NORTH.  ALSO MODELS TYPICALLY UNDER FORECAST THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WITH THESE SYSTEMS...HENCE YIELDING A NORTHWARD DRIFT.

THUS...OVERALL CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM.  GIVEN SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR IN LATE SECOND AND THIRD PERIODS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY...AND NOT ISSUE A WATCH AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREATER THAN
50% ALONG WITH OKX AND HPC PREFERRING LIGHTER AMOUNTS.  THINKING
THERE IS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 6IN SNOWFALL
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.  WILL CONVEY THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL VIA
AN SPS (BOSSPSBOX).

BEYOND WED NIGHT...DRY CYCLONIC FLOW SETTLES IN THU INTO FRI...WITH
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FRI NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST/GRIDS...THUS LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGE EXPECTED.   COLD WEATHER STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NAO BECOMES NEGATIVE...SHIFTING POLAR JET
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

IN THE SHORTER TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE LONGER TERM...WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WED INTO WED
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DIMINSIHING WIND AND SEAS THU AND FRI.  WIND AND
SEAS THEN INCREASE WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM SAT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

.SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
.LONG TERM...NOCERA

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo