[HCRA] Fw: Hurricane Isabel Coordination Message #6

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                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
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--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Wed, 17 Sep 2003 08:22:37 -0400
Subject: Hurricane Isabel Coordination Message #6
Message-ID: <006901c37d16$c8892710$44b53bd0@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

....Hurricane Isabel Maintains Strong Category II Hurricane Status and
Continues its North-Northwestward Movement at 9 MPH....
....Hurricane Isabel Will Have Some Impact Across Southern New
England....
....Expected Landfall Remains in the North Carolina/Mid-Atlantic Region.
Vigilance Must Be Maintained for any Northward Motion either near or
prior
to expected landfall in this region or after landfall has occurred....
....SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators Should Prepare for Some Level of
Relaying of Reports or Activation Depending on Isabel's ultimate track.
ARES
and RACES Groups Should Continue to Monitor This Situation....

Hurricane Isabel continues to maintain Strong Category II Hurricane
Status
as she makes her track North-Northwestward at 9 MPH. This motion is
expected
to continue for the next 24 hours at least. It is noted that she has a
much
more Northerly angle than westerly angle. On a compass her heading
remains
in the 330 to 335 degree motion. While model guidance is unanimous in
bringing expected landfall into the North Carolina-Mid-Atlantic Region,
the
westerly angle of motion is very small and any deviation further to the
North could cause more problems North of the current Tropical Storm
Watches
and Warnings and Hurricane Warnings and the National Hurricane Center has
asked people to maintain vigilance in case the model track guidance is
"unaninously wrong". While this unlikely, all should continue to maintain
high vigilance.

After expected landfall, the hurricane is still expected to track over
portions of Western and Central Pennsylvania and Western and Central New
York. Once again, if this more westerly track does not occur and is more
northerly, we would feel more than the fringe effects that are currently
expected and this also has to be monitored. There is not much change in
thinking as far as impact to our region based on the current Isabel
track.
Those impacts, based on the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, are
listed below:

-Rainfall totals of around 3" in localized areas depending on the track
of
the system.
-Tropical Storm Force Wind Gusts are possible especially in the higher
terrain and coastal areas with some statement or advisory on the strong
winds possible.
-Isolated strong thunderstorms.
-Significant impact to marine interests from significant swells and
powerfully high and strong seas.
-Timeframe remains late Thursday into Friday

A High Surf and Rip Current Advisory continues for the Southern New
England
coast line and this will probably be extended through at least Friday.

Once again, SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators should continue to closely
monitor this situation and be prepared for some form of activation or
sending of reports to NWS Taunton that meet the reporting criteria in the
late Thursday to Friday timeframe. ARES/RACES groups should monitor the
situation in case the track of Isabel is further east and potentially
causes
more impact to the region than currently expected.

The current Hurricane Watch Net Activation Plan can be seen at the
following
link:

http://www.hwn.org/activationplans.shtml

Also, a Marine HF Net will be started at 1230 UTC at 8.152 MHz USB. The
link
with further information on this net is listed below:

http://www.hwn.org/marine-ssb-nets.shtml

The next coordination message will be posted by 11:30 PM this evening.
Below
is the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Marine Weather
Statement and the Latest 8 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center
on
Hurricane Isabel:

FLUS41 KBOX 171128
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (INCLUDING RIP TIDE POTENTIAL) IS POSTED FOR
VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COASTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

CONSULT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND INFORMATION FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER REGARDING HURRICANE ISABEL.

INCREASING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEAS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL
WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 10 FOOT SEAS LIKELY EAST OF CAPE ANN.
ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MIDDAY TOMORROW...SQUALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISABEL ARE STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE FOLLOWING ARE PROBABLE IMPACTS IF THE 5 AM WEDNESDAY FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL CONTINUE TO HOLD ACCURATE.

ISABELS PRIMARY SUBSTANTIAL EFFECTS ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE FOR
MARINE INTERESTS AND THE ADJACENT BEACHES/SHORELINE.

A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED DISCUSSING SOME OF THIS
POTENTIAL.

MARINERS PLANNING EXTENDED TRIPS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD EXERCISE EXTRA
CAUTION OR NOT TRANSIT THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK THAT ROUGH SEAS MAY STRESS ANY WEAK MOORINGS LATER
IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE LAND AREA...GALE FORCE (TROPICAL STORM FORCE) WIND GUSTS ARE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY HIGH TERRAIN WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WIND
ADVISORY.  THE FIRST AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY SUSTAINED WINDS JUST
OVER 30 MPH WILL BE COASTAL RHODE ISLAND LATE THURSDAY.  THIS REGION
OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WIND WILL SHIFT OUT TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...SQUALLY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF BROKEN TREE
LIMBS.. NOT EXTENSIVE...BUT ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY HIGH TERRAIN.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

RAINFALL OVER THE INTERIOR MAY TALLY 3 INCHES IN AN ISOLATED
LOCATION...AGAIN DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

DRAG

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003

SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ISABEL WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTHERN
NEW
ENGLAND WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

SMALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO NOT TRANSIT INTO THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE ISABEL IS HEADING FOR AN APPARENT LANDFALL ON THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST
TOMORROW, ITS HUGE ENVELOP OF HIGH SEAS GENERATED DURING ITS MORE THAN 10
DAY JOURNEY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN, WILL CONTINUE BUILDING TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

EIGHT FOOT SWELLS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, MAY BRIEFLY LESSEN LATER TODAY BEFORE THEY DOUBLE IN SIZE LATE
THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY MORNING, 15 FOOT OR HIGHER SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO POUND THE
SOUTH
COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS, CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BEACH
EROSION. SPLASHOVER IS EXPECTED NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ONTO
VULNERABLE
ROADS AND PARKING LOTS, ALONG THE EXPOSED OCEAN LOCATIONS FROM NANTUCKET
AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD TO COASTAL RHODE ISLAND.

COASTAL EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM PROVINCETOWN TO THE OUTER PORTION OF
MASSACHUSETTS BAY ON UP TO THE EAST OF CAPE ANN, WILL EXPERIENCE BUILDING
SEAS THURSDAY, PROBABLY REACHING 10 FEET ON FRIDAY.

THE SWELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE.
SOME
PIERS AND MOORINGS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS MAY SUFFER DAMAGE DURING THIS PROLONGED EVENT.

MARINERS, ESPECIALLY SMALL CRAFT, ARE ADVISED TO CONSIDER REMAINING IN
PORT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR COMPLETE YOUR VOYAGE, AT THE LATEST BY LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATEST ADVISORIES ON ISABEL AS ISSUED BY THE
TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AND FURTHER STATEMENTS AS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAUNTON.

WTNT33 KNHC 171145
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003

...ISABEL CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST...PREPARATIONS SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF SMITH POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND FROM SOUTH OF
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...29.7 N... 72.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 WWWW

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo