[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
               CT+ MD+ VT+ King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Thu, 1 May 2003 08:31:29 -0400
Subject: Severe Weather Coordination Message
Message-ID: <059101c30fde$0cf2f030$32b53bd0@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Are Possible Across Southwest New
Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Northwest Connecticut for late this
afternoon and evening....
...Any campers headed to the Hopkinton, NH Hamfest should keep an eye out
for any kind of thunderstorm and take shelter if one occurs as even
regular
thunderstorms pose a threat to campers due to lightning....

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Western New England,
essentially Southwest New Hampshire, and from Franklin, Hampshire,
Hampden
and Hartford Counties west through New York State in a Slight Risk of
Severe
Weather. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threats in
this
area. The forecast is very conditional at this time. The key issues will
be
the following:

1.) Will enough sunshine and heating allow for the atmosphere to
destabilize?
2.) Will the atmosphere destabilize enough to allow for isolated severe
thunderstorms?

A 15% risk of large hail and damaging wind is forecast in Western New
England. Just to the west in New York State, a 25-35% risk of damaging
winds
and large hail is forecasted. Weather models at this time seem to
indicate
it will be difficult to get instability into the Western New England
area,
however, it wouldn't take much of a change in these parameters to mean
the
potential for at least isolated severe weather across the western parts
of
the area. There will at least be a few non-severe thunderstorms over the
area and will pose the threat of lightning and heavy rain over the area.

This will be the only email on this situation. Alphanumeric pages will be
sent throughout the day to update the threat. Below is the SPC Day-1
Convective Outlook:

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 ENE EFK BML CON BAF PSB HTS BNA TUP MLU SHV TXK MLC BVO CNU
   40 SW SZL VIH STL PIA CGX 30 NE MTC.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW SRQ
   45 WNW ORL 35 SSE VLD DHN MGM LUL MCB 55 SW LFK 45 NNW VCT NIR COT
   HDO JCT ABI 35 NW MWL 40 S OKC END HUT STJ 30 NNE LWD DBQ MKE MKG
   65 SSE OSC ...CONT... 20 SE ACY BWI 35 W RIC 50 E RWI 25 NW HSE
   ...CONT... 65 NNW 3B1 25 SSE CAR.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CTB GTF
   30 NW BIL 45 WSW GCC CDR MCK GCK LAA COS 45 SSW LAR 40 SW BPI
   20 ESE OWY 60 E 4LW 25 ENE 4BK 20 NNW 4BK.

   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MERGING WITH ANOTHER BELT OF
   STRONGER WESTERLIES CURVING AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP
   CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.  DOWNSTREAM OF MID/UPPER
   CONFLUENCE...STRONG JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
   AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS ONTARIO TO THE SOUTH OF
   UPPER LOW.

   IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW REGIME...WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT
   EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...
   WHILE FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OR BEGINS TO ADVANCE
   SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE DAY.  SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO
   CLIMB TO NEAR 60...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
   IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ALONG AN
   AXIS FROM NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES
   ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME
   RELATIVELY STEEP AND INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...WITH 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME ENHANCING STORM
   MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BECOMES
   INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ..KERR/JEWELL.. 05/01/03

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator