[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
               CT+ MD+ VT+ King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2003 08:31:28 -0400
Subject: Severe Weather Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <12f101c34b96$878c6ad0$3bb63bd0@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

...SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on the potential for Severe
Weather
across much of Southern New England and Southern New Hampshire Today.
Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the primary threats...
...SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are Likely Today....

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southern New England and
Southern New Hampshire in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today. There
is a
15% probability of damaging winds and large hail across much of this
region.
At 8 AM, an area of rain and possibly embedded thunderstorms is moving
rapidly northeast and weakening. This area will move out of the area and
will allow moisture to converge over the area. It should clear out
rapidly
and allow for destabilization. A Cold Front will then approach the area
from
the west this afternoon. Strong wind fields aloft and sufficient
destabilization should result in initiation of lines of thunderstorms
this
afternoon and early evening with damaging winds and large hail the
primary
threats. Also the rain from earlier today will enhance moisture across
portions of Southern New England for this afternoon.

The primary threat for severe weather is anytime between 1 and 8 PM this
afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators should be
prepared
for activation this afternoon and evening. If the event occurs as
currently
progged, it would be the first widespread severe weather event of the
year
for Southern New England in terms of how many towns can affected.
Remember
that while it can happen in several towns there is an isolated nature to
the
severe weather, it can occur at the neighborhood level of cities and
towns
across the area so while your specific location may not have severe
weather
another neighborhood in the same city or town or another neighborhood in
an
adjacent city or town maybe the area that is experiencing the severe
weather. NWS Taunton Ops are possible for this event.

This will be the only email on this situation but pages will be sent
throughout the day to update the threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special
WX
Statement and Hazardous WX Outlook as well as the SPC Day-1 Concetive
Outlook:

WWUS81 KBOX 160945
SPSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-161300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
536 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MASSACHUSETTS CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY...

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL
FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS
REGION...ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS DEFINED AS A THUNDERSTORM WHICH PRODUCES
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 58 MILES AN HOUR AND OR HAIL THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF LARGER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FLUS41 KBOX 160954
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
551 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
MASSACHUSETTS CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT MAY
WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  HOWEVER THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DETERMINE IF ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND OTHER SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
TODAYS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RELAY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   75 WSW TUS 25 NE GBN 45 SE PRC 10 N SAD 10 S DUG.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 E APN 25 SSE MBL 15 SW MTW 40 ENE EAU 10 E RST 15 SSE ALO
   35 WSW BRL 20 N COU 30 ENE SZL 30 WSW BIE 35 ENE HLC 10 SE AKO
   45 ESE CYS 50 NE DGW 30 SW SHR 35 ENE LVM 35 WNW LWT 35 NW GGW
   55 NW ISN 25 NNW P24 15 ENE BIS 10 WSW FAR 40 W INL.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 S ACY 25 WNW RIC 30 SW CHO 30 N CHO 35 SSE CXY 30 NNE ABE
   15 SW ALB 20 ENE LEB 20 ENE BHB.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 15 E RAL
   30 NNW LAX 55 NNE BFL 50 W BIH 60 NNW BIH 10 WNW DRA 25 ENE P38
   50 SE SLC 55 NW LND 25 ESE MQM 65 SW 27U 60 ESE BKE 25 N BKE
   25 WSW LWS 45 NE 63S.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT 45 NE BIS
   25 WNW FAR 10 W RRT.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GDP 10 N GDP
   40 NNW SJT 35 SSE SEP 20 WSW ELD 25 WNW PGO 25 WNW HRO 35 NNW DYR
   50 E BWG 10 E EKN 45 WNW ABE 45 NNE ART.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTC 15 WNW DBQ
   10 SE STL 40 WSW JEF 10 SW FLV 45 NNE GCK 50 SW CAO 35 ENE 4CR
   35 WNW TCS 45 ESE DUG.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONSTANT THIS PERIOD WITH A
   TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE CENTER
   OF THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  SEVERAL
   SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE FAST / AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS
   THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS
   PERIOD -- INCLUDING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ENEWD ACROSS THE NEW
   ENGLAND...AND NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
   WHILE THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND FOCUSES ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  A
   SECOND BOUNDARY DROPPING SWD OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   SHOULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BOTH ACROSS ERN ND DURING
   THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS ERN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
   EVENING.

   ...NORTHEAST...
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS NOW EVIDENT AS FAR N AS THE DELMARVA REGION
   SHOULD BE ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  AS AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZES...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG / AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
   BY MIDDAY...AND SWD INTO VA ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS.
   ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE WEAK ACROSS SRN VA...FLOW
   WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT / CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH / JET.
   SHEAR / CAPE COMBINATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS
   FROM NRN VA ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AS FAR N AS DOWN EAST ME.
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
   THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM SRN
   NEW ENGLAND SWD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.

   ..GOSS.. 07/16/03

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo