[HCRA] Fw: SKYWARN Newsletter #207
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Sun, 13 Jul 2003 20:43:28 -0400
Eric Tuller N1QKO
flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
CT+ MD+ VT+ King Richards Ren Faires
--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>, <[email protected]>,
<[email protected]>, <[email protected]>,
<[email protected]>, <[email protected]>
Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2003 14:45:35 -0400
Subject: SKYWARN Newsletter #207
Message-ID: <11e101c3496f$4e81e900$3bb63bd0@skywarnmainpc>
Hello to all...
Severe Weather Events to Date Lowest Number Since 1993....
Strong Thunderstorms Pass Just offshore of Cape Cod on 7/11/03...
Rip Currents: A Danger that Can Occur on Southern New England Beaches...
Hurricane Watch Net Activates Briefly Due to Claudette...
Tropical Storm Claudette Coordinates...
***Newsletter Issued 7/13/03.
Severe Weather Events to Date Lowest Number Since 1993....
Severe Weather for the 2003 season to date is running well below
a 10 year average of severe weather reporting per statistics from
the publication Storm Data as of July 11th, 2003.
Storm Data is a publication where all severe weather reports are
compiled from local National Weather Service Forecast Offices and
the Storm Prediction Center and compiled as a reference book for
storm related damage. Storm Data contains both winter and summer time
information. The data generated from Storm Data comes from YOUR timely
severe weather reporting to the National Weather Service forecast
office for the protection of life and property!!
The National Climate Data Center assists with creating Storm Data and
has made available a free site where spotter reports can be queried
on from the Storm Data archive. The link to this site is listed below:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/sd/
The following is a state-by-state breakdown for the NWS Taunton County
Warning Area with the exception of Massachusetts where Berkshire County
from NWS Albany's area was included for ease of compiling the data.
After the state-by-state breakdown, the total number of reports were
added together from each state and the total composite for the region
appears after the state-by-state breakdown. Please note the following
assumptions in reviewing the data:
-All reports are of wind measurements 58 MPH or greater, wind damage
from thunderstorms or Hail 3/4" in Diameter or larger.
-Damage from tropical systems was no taken into account in this data.
-All data was compiled from Storm Data and are leveraged from Local
Storm Report products which are derived from YOUR reports.
-It is possible that some severe weather reports for certain areas
were combined if the reports were close to each other geographically
or there were errors in having the data transferred from the NWS
products into Storm Data.
-Numbers were compiled manually and may have slight errors.
-It is noted that the number of spotters has increased substantially
over the past 10 years and may be resulting in higher numbers of
reports that went undetected 10 years ago.
-Some years slightly outside of the 1993-2003 timeframe were analyzed
to see if they compared to 2003 and those years had more reports than
this year to date.
-Data for the summer of 2003 is not in Storm Data and was compiled from
NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports and information from forecasters.
Here are the reports by state and the total number of severe reports
across the specified area and amount of reports through July 11th
of each year:
Massachusetts Data (Including Berkshire County, Mass.):
1993: 26 Total Severe Weather Reports; 1 Report prior to 7/11/93.
1994: 74 Total Severe Weather Reports; 37 Reports prior to 7/11/94.
1995: 102 Total Severe Weather Reports; 42 Reports prior to 7/11/95.
1996: 59 Total Severe weather Reports; 46 Reports prior to 7/11/96.
1997: 114 Total Severe Weather Reports; 77 Reports prior to 7/11/97.
1998: 131 Total Severe Weather Reports; 88 Reports prior to 7/11/98.
1999: 78 Total Severe Weather Reports; 29 Reports prior to 7/11/99.
2000: 97 Total Severe Weather Reports; 69 Reports prior to 7/11/00.
2001: 113 Total Severe Weather Reports; 98 Reports prior to 7/11/01.
2002: 93 Total Severe Weather Reports; 53 Reports prior to 7/11/02.
2003: 11 Total Severe Weather Reports as of 7/11/03.
Rhode Island Data:
1993: 2 Total Severe Weather Reports; 0 Reports prior to 7/11/93.
1994: 8 Total Severe Weather Reports; 5 Reports prior to 7/11/94.
1995: 21 Total Severe Weather Reports; 12 Reports prior to 7/11/95.
1996: 7 Total Severe Weather Reports; 5 Reports prior to 7/11/96.
1997: 20 Total Severe Weather Reports; 10 Reports prior to 7/11/97.
1998: 9 Total Severe Weather Reports; 8 Reports prior to 7/11/98.
1999: 6 Total Severe Weather Reports; 0 Reports Prior to 7/11/99.
2000: 14 Total Severe Weather Reports; 7 Reports Prior to 7/11/00.
2001: 4 Total Severe Weather Reports and all Reports prior to 7/11/01.
2002: 7 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports Prior to 7/11/02.
2003: No Reports of Severe Weather yet this year.
Southern New Hampshire Data: (Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties Only)
1993: 1 Total Severe Weather Report; 0 Reports prior to 7/11/93.
1994: 8 Total Severe weather Reports; 4 Reports prior to 7/11/94.
1995: 5 Total Severe Weather Reports; 2 Reports prior to 7/11/95.
1996: 6 Total Severe Weather Reports all prior to 7/11/96.
1997: 12 Total Severe Weather Reports all prior to 7/11/97.
1998: 24 Total Severe Weather Reports; 18 Reports prior to 7/11/98.
1999: 8 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports prior to 7/11/99.
2000: 9 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports prior to 7/11/00.
2001: 9 Total Severe weather Reports all prior to 7/11/01.
2002: 16 Total Severe Weather Reports; 12 Reports prior to 7/11/02.
2003: No Reports of Severe Weather yet this year.
Connecticut Data: (Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties Only)
1993: 8 Total Severe Weather Reports; 0 Reports prior to 7/11/93.
1994: 17 Total Severe Weather Reports; 13 Reports prior to 7/11/94.
1995: 31 Total Severe Weather Reports; 24 Reports prior to 7/11/95.
1996: 13 Total Severe Weather Reports; 12 Reports prior to 7/11/96.
1997: 17 Total Severe Weather Reports; 11 Reports prior to 7/11/97.
1998: 7 Total Severe Weather Reports; 3 Reports prior to 7/11/98.
1999: 20 Total Severe Weather Reports; 5 Reports prior to 7/11/99.
2000: 20 Total Severe Weather Reports; 15 Reports prior to 7/11/00.
2001: 16 Total Severe Weather Reports; 11 Reports prior to 7/11/01.
2002: 23 Total Severe Weather Reports; 11 Reports prior to 7/11/02.
2003: 2 Total Severe Weather Reports as of 7/11/03.
Total Severe Weather Reports from Massachusetts (Including Berkshire
County), Rhode Island, Connecticut (Hartford, Tolland and Windham
Counties), and Southern New Hampshire (Cheshire and Hillsborough
Counties):
1993: 37 Total Severe Weather Reports; 1 Report prior to 7/11/93.
1994: 107 Total Severe Weather Reports; 59 Reports prior to 7/11/94.
1995: 159 Total Severe Weather Reports; 80 Reports prior to 7/11/95.
1996: 85 Total Severe Weather Reports; 69 Reports prior to 7/11/96.
1997: 163 Total Severe Weather Reports; 110 Reports prior to 7/11/97.
1998: 171 Total Severe Weather Reports; 117 Reports prior to 7/11/98.
1999: 112 Total Severe Weather Reports; 37 Reports prior to 7/11/99.
2000: 140 Total Severe Weather Reports; 94 Reports prior to 7/11/00.
2001: 142 Total Severe Weather Reports; 122 Reports prior to 7/11/01.
2002: 139 Total Severe Weather Reports; 124 Reports prior to 7/11/02.
2003: 13 Total Severe Weather Reports as of 7/11/03.
Per the above data, we are currently running well below any of the last
10 years for severe weather except for 1993 where only 1 report was
received through July 11th of that year. The 13 reports received so
far in 2003, however, was far below any other year to date.
The second lowest year was 1999 with 37 reports through July 11th
followed by 1994 with 59 reports through July 11th and 69 reports
of severe weather occurring through July 11th in 1996. In 1999, a
torrid pace of severe weather in July through early August caused
severe weather reporting to look more in line with the remaining
years in the analysis.
On the current pace, 2003 is expected to fall well short of the last
5 years as far as the number of severe weather reports. The total
number of reports looks to be on pace with 1993, and 1996 with the
possibility of under 100 severe weather reports received.
Despite the lower than normal year so far, SKYWARN Spotters and
Coordinators need to remian vigilant as we are still only half way
through severe weather season. One trend that has been noted for this
year across the country is for severe weather to average below normal
and then a sudden pattern shift caused numerous severe weather
convective events over parts of the country over a short period of
time. Prior to the severe weather outbreaks that occurred in late
April through Mid-May across the Midwest and Southeast US, the US
was running well below normal for severe weather. When the
outbreaks hit in late April through Mid-May, it was the largest
outbreak of tornadoes and severe weather in US history. Also, Spotters
and Coordinators will need to keep a wary eye on the Tropics as we
enter August and September which are peak months for hurricane season
and the timeframe where New England gets hit by the most tropical
systems.
Strong Thunderstorms Pass Just offshore of Cape Cod on 7/11/03...
Strong thunderstorms passed just offshore of Cape Cod early Friday
Afternoon July 11th with a Special Marine Warning issued on the cell
as it went through Cape Cod Bay and skirted the Provincetown and
Truro, Massachusetts area of outer Cape Cod. The strong cell was
associated with a warm front that attempted to pass through the area
on Friday.
Given the storm's potency, a check of the area for any strong winds
or hail was done through the efforts of Frank O'Laughlin, WQ1O, Cape
Cod ARES District Emergency Coordinator. No reports of reportable
criteria was received on land but two shipping vessels 7 miles southwest
of Provincetown, Massachusetts reported Pea Sized Hail and measured
wind gusts to 55 MPH. That strong part of the cell appeared to stay
offhshore and over the coastal waters.
Special thanks to Frank O'Laughlin, WQ1O, for his help in obtaining
these reports and verifying that no reportable or severe criteria
reports were received over Outer Cape Cod.
Rip Currents: A Danger that Can Occur on Southern New England Beaches...
This year has seen a danger that can occasionally occur on Southern
New England beaches and has been highlighted at times in Special
Weather Statements from NWS Taunton and it concerns rip currents.
Rip Currents can be dangerous particularly on beaches that are most
exposed to higher surf and waves from the open ocean. Rip currents
typically occur with strong storms or conditions just offshore of the
coast-line help to churn up the ocean. Rip currents can sometimes be
seen as a murky discoloration of the water or lower and choppier wave
heights cutting through the surf. They typically occur about 2 hours
before low tide through 4 hours after low tide. If a swimmer is caught
in a rip current, they should swim parallel to shore to get out of the
current and not against it.
Typically, beaches along Outer Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket,
Newport and Narragansett Beaches in Rhode Island as well as Horseneck
Beach in Westport, Massachusetts are most exposed to the danger of
rip currents due to their maximum exposure to the ocean. Just last week
on Horseneck Beach, numerous rescues were required and unfortunately
1 person was killed due to the rip currents.
The National Weather Service in Taunton has setup contacts with beach
patrols across Southern New England. Just recently, through the efforts
of Mike Leger-N1YLQ, contact has now been made with the Horseneck Beach
team of lifeguards so that coordination can take place in case rip
currents occur as well as other hazards such as thunderstorms that
can cause major issues on area beaches. NWS Taunton has already setup
contacts with beach patrols in Narragansett and Newport, RI.
If you go to Southern New England beaches, remember the danger from
rip currents and follow the advice of lifeguards on the beach so that
you can stay out of harm's way.
Hurricane Watch Net Activates Briefly Due to Claudette...
The Hurricane Watch Net Activated Briefly to support parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula as Claudette neared hurricane strength but fell
just short of hurricane status. Currently, the Hurricane Watch Net
is montioring the progress of Claudette as she has the potential
to make landfall somewhere along the Western Gulf of Mexico coast
as a minimal hurricane in approximately 2 days. Below is a bulletin
from the ARRL concerning the Hurricane Watch Net's activation and
monitoring of the system along with possible activation of the
SATERN (Salvation Army Team) due to Claudette:
ARLB046 Hurricane Watch Net, SATERN keeping an eye on Claudette
The Hurricane Watch Net secured operations on 14.325 MHz at 0130z on
July 11 for Tropical Storm Claudette. The storm had been predicted
to reach hurricane status, but it is now diminishing in strength as
it brushes past the Yucatan Peninsula. The activation for Claudette
at 1800z on July 10 was the first of the 2003 hurricane season.
HWN members share storm information with forecasters via WX4NHC at
the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Net Manager Mike Pilgrim, K5MP, has cautioned, however, that once
the storm clears the Yucatan and heads into the warm waters of the
Gulf of Mexico, it again could become a major threat to Gulf Coast
communities. "We will continue to monitor progress of this storm and
will advise if activation of the Hurricane Watch Net might again be
called for," Pilgrim said. "In the meantime, interested parties
should access the weather advisories available on the Net's Web site
at http://www.hwn.org or otherwise monitor the Maritime Mobile
Service Net on 14.300 MHz (and on the web at http://www.mmsn.org/)
for frequent updates of the tropical weather outlook."
At 1200z, Claudette was reported heading north-northwest at 12 MPH
with maximum sustained winds of 55 MPH.
Meanwhile, National Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network
(SATERN) Coordinator Pat McPherson, WW9E, is asking SATERN personnel
in its Southern Territory to remain alert to further activation of
the Hurricane Watch Net and to support net activities by monitoring
and relaying if needed.
"If Claudette becomes a hurricane and makes landfall, it is likely
that SATERN will activate to pass emergency traffic and handle
health and welfare," McPherson said. The SATERN net operates on
14.265 MHz.
Tropical Storm Claudette Coordinates...
Tropical Storm Claudette formed last week over the Carribean Sea and
tracked over the Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm. As of this
newsletter writing, Claudette threatens the Western Gulf of Mexico
as either a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Below is
the latest list of coordinates on Claudette, all wind speeds given
in Knots:
Date: 08-13 JUL 2003
Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 15.00 -71.30 07/08/21Z 45 1006 TROPICAL STORM
1A 15.10 -71.90 07/09/00Z 45 1006 TROPICAL STORM
2 15.20 -73.10 07/09/03Z 55 1000 TROPICAL STORM
2A 15.10 -74.40 07/09/06Z 60 1000 TROPICAL STORM
3 15.30 -75.50 07/09/09Z 60 1004 TROPICAL STORM
3A 15.30 -76.90 07/09/12Z 60 1004 TROPICAL STORM
4 15.50 -77.60 07/09/15Z 55 1004 TROPICAL STORM
4A 15.80 -78.60 07/09/18Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM
5 16.00 -79.70 07/09/21Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM
5A 16.10 -80.20 07/10/00Z 55 1002 TROPICAL STORM
6 16.30 -81.00 07/10/03Z 50 1004 TROPICAL STORM
6A 16.50 -82.00 07/10/06Z 50 1004 TROPICAL STORM
7 16.80 -82.50 07/10/09Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM
7A 17.00 -83.10 07/10/12Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM
8 17.80 -83.60 07/10/15Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM
8A 18.30 -83.60 07/10/18Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM
9 18.60 -84.20 07/10/21Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM
9A 19.30 -84.50 07/11/00Z 60 993 TROPICAL STORM
10 20.00 -85.80 07/11/03Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM
10A 20.70 -86.60 07/11/06Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM
11 21.00 -86.90 07/11/09Z 50 1008 TROPICAL STORM
11A 21.60 -87.00 07/11/12Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM
12 21.60 -87.40 07/11/15Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM
12A 21.90 -88.00 07/11/18Z 45 1009 TROPICAL STORM
13 22.40 -88.70 07/11/21Z 45 1009 TROPICAL STORM
14 22.90 -89.60 07/12/03Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM
15 23.60 -90.50 07/12/09Z 45 1007 TROPICAL STORM
16 24.10 -91.20 07/12/15Z 45 1006 TROPICAL STORM
17 24.70 -91.10 07/12/21Z 45 1008 TROPICAL STORM
18 25.10 -91.90 07/13/03Z 45 1005 TROPICAL STORM
19 25.00 -92.50 07/13/09Z 45 1005 TROPICAL STORM
20 25.40 -92.40 07/13/15Z 50 996 TROPICAL STORM
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: [email protected]
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo