[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
Date: Sun, 16 Feb 2003 11:33:46 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Hello to all....

....Winter Storm Watch Posted for all of Southern New England for Monday
and
Monday Night....
....Major Winter Storm with at least 6" or more of snow across all or
most
of Southern New England...
....Near Blizzard Conditions possible over portions of Southern New
England
for Monday and Monday Night...
....Coastal Flooding and Strong Winds are Possible with this
Nor'easter....
....SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Possible for this
storm....
....ARES and RACES Groups Across Southern New England Should Monitor This
Storm with Appropriate Leaders and Be Prepared for Possible Activation
Monday into Tuesday...

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for all of Southern New England for
Monday and Monday Night. A major winter storm which is expected to dump a
foot or more of snow on Washington DC and the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
region will move close enough to Southern New England to produce a
significant snowfall for much of the region. The storm will also have a
strong wind field with winds coming out of the Northeast direction and
this
means the storm will have the potential for a period of blizzard
conditions
somewhere in Southern New England. As of this morning, the greatest
threat
of blizzard or near blizzard conditions will be greatest across Essex,
Suffolk, Norfolk, and Northern Bristol and Northern Plymouth Counties of
Massachusetts. This storm has the potential to hit the Boston-Providence
metro corridor the hardest.

Threat assessment of this storm follows below by geographic area and
major
threat category:

Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island:

Snowfall:

Interior areas are likely to see the heaviest amounts of snow with the
potential for 10-20" of snow.
South Coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands
could
receive 6-12" of snow.

Coastal Flooding:

The potential exists for 2-3 high tide cycles with at least minor coastal
flooding across north and east facing beaches of the Eastern
Massachusetts
coastline. The strength of the winds and the timing near high tide cycles
will detemine the extent of the coastal flooding across the area.

Strong Winds:

The potential exists for winds of 40-50 MPH with higher gusts across
portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with higher gusts
possible across South Coastal areas and Cape Cod and the Islands. These
winds could cause some wind damage and a High Wind Watch may be posted
for a
portion of the area.

Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Southern New
Hampshire:

Heavy Snow with at least 6" or more of snow is possible in these areas
with
the potential for a band of heavier snowfall somewhere in this region.
Strong winds may allow for considerable blowing and/or drifting of snow
in
this area.

At this time, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are a strong
possibility from Monday late Morning through late Monday Night with the
possibility for an additional activation for part of Tuesday Morning. If
any
kind of "infrastructure damage" to trees and power lines occurs from
strong
winds and the snow, this might result in localized mobilization of either
ARES or RACES groups in areas where these groups are active. ARES and
RACES
groups are asked to check with the leaders of their groups for more
information.

All SKYWARN Spotters, Coordinators, and Amateur Radio Operators are asked
to
keep updated on latest forecasts, warnings and information through the
internet or NOAA Weather Radio or these coordination emails. The next
email
will be posted by 11 PM this evening.

Below is the Winter Storm Watch statement, Hazardous WX Outlook and Area
Forecast Discussion from NWS Taunton:

WWUS41 KBOX 161618
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1115 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

NHZ011-012-170006-
CHESHIRE NH-HILLSBOROUGH NH-
1115 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...

A SLOW MOVING STORM WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.  THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIX OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE POWDERY...AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THE SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE.  THE SNOW
SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING 6 OR MORE INCHES.

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-RIZ001>007-170007-
BARNSTABLE MA-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-WASHINGTON RI-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
1115 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS POISED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIX OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SOME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS MAY RECEIVE A FOOT OR MORE OF NEW
SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE HEAVY SNOW TO PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT TIMES
MONDAY NIGHT.  EVEN SO...THIS AREA MAY STILL RECEIVE AT LEAST SIX
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND
SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY
MONDAY.  THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM.  TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME
DIFFICULT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT MONDAY
NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD...MAINLY DURING MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN RHODE
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A
PLYMOUTH-TAUNTON LINE.  A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 6
INCHES.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL HIGHER
TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON WILL CAUSE THE TIDE TO RUN 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE
MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST.  WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET MAY APPROACH THE
SHORELINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
AND EVEN A LITTLE MORE LIKELY WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT AND MIDDAY
TUESDAY HIGH TIDES.

PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOW EVENT.

$$

VALLIER-TALBOT

FLUS41 KBOX 161142
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING.  UNTIL MID MORNING...WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 BELOW TO 25 BELOW WILL OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 BELOW TO 20
BELOW WILL OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

...HEAVY SNOWFALL...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ARE THREATS IN THIS PERIOD...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  THE STORM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOW...WITH TOTALS OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES...TO THE ENTIRE REGION.  BY TUESDAY MORNING...
THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE BANDS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE 10 TO 20
INCH RANGE.  SUCH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW COULD INCLUDE THE BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE METROPOLITAN AREAS.  ALONG AND NORTH OF A PLYMOUTH TO
TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE TO WILLIMANTIC LINE...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
OF A POWDERY NATURE.  ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH
COASTS...HOWEVER...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN AT TIMES
DURING MONDAY NIGHT.  AS WITH MOST STORMS...THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL
TRACK OF THE STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW OF A POWDERY NATURE AND STRONG WINDS
MAY PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EXPOSED AREAS IN RHODE ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE SUBSEQUENT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AND COMPLICATE TRAVEL.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDE TO RUN UP TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
NIGHT.  MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING BOTH HIGH TIDES.
ALTHOUGH A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST WILL
LIKELY REDUCE THE SURGE IN TIME FOR THE TUESDAY MIDDAY HIGH
TIDE...WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET APPROACHING THE SHORELINE WILL
CONTINUE THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION.

ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS STORM IS PRESENTLY
UNCERTAIN.  PERIODS OF ICE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...AND SNOW ARE ALL
POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS COMPLEX LOOKING SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

THOMPSON

FXUS61 KBOX 160917
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
417 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003

...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS PSBL FOR PARTS OF SNE MON AFTN/NGT...

SHORT TERM...OCEAN EFFECT CLDNS HAS OVERSPREAD PTNS OF CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS EXPCTD.  SNOW SHOWERS NOW REDUCING VSBY TO 2 MILES AT
PROVINCETOWN.  WL CONT CHC SNOW SHWRS FROM MID CAPE EWD AND SWD
THRU MRNG HRS.  MAY PICK UP SML ACCUM.  OTRW...A LOT OF THICK CIRRUS
ARND WITH SOME MID CLDS TOO...FOR MOST OF TDA.  TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
INTO TEENS MOST AREAS.  WNDS WL CONT NR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ALG
CST THIS MRNG...THEN SHUD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AS HIGH PRES CENTER
ITSELF GETS CLOSER.  HOPING THAT SUBSIDENCE WL BEGIN TO SQUELCH THE
OCEAN EFFECT FM AFTN ON.  WND CHILL READINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE -15 TO -25 RANGE FOR FRANKLIN...NORTHERN WORCESTER...CHESHIRE...
AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL ABT 11 AM...SO HAVE CONTD THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.

CALM BEFORE THE STORM TNGT.  GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY WITH A NE FLOW
BCMG ESTABLISHED.  SOME INCRS IN WNDS TWD 12Z MON.

LONG TERM...WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA FOR MON AND
MON NGT FOR HVY SN.  00Z ETA AND GFS CONVERGING ON SIMILAR TRACK
THAT GEM HAS BEEN INDCTG PAST SVRL RUNS.  GEM STILL HAS NOT
WAVERED...AND UKMET/ECMWF PAINT SIMILAR TRACK.  XPCT STG OVRNNG OF
COPIUS GULF AND ATLC MOISTURE OVR ARCTIC AIR MASS.  ANTICIPATE
EFFICIENT COLD AND WARM CONVEYOR BELTS OPERATING.  NOTE H7 LOW NRL
CLSD OFF AS IT PASSES ACRS SE NEW ENG.  THE 850-700 MB LYR AS FCST
BY BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATE POTL DEF AXIS...PSBLY ACRS OUR NW ZNS.
 THUS...ENTIRE FCST AREA HAS POTL FOR .5 TO 1.0 QPF...PERHAPS EVEN
POCKETS OF ARND 1.25 SERN ZNS.  AS NOTED BY OPC...DEEPER GFS CNTRL
PRES PREFERRED DUE TO TRACK NR N WALL OF GULF STRM...AND ALSO NOTE
VRY IMPRSV H85 TEMP GRAD IN THAT AREA. WITH STG ARCTIC HI IN PLACE...
XPCT IMPRSV SFC GRAD TO DVLP.  ONLY PTYPE ISSUE IS IMMEDIATE S COAST
WHERE SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN...SPCLY BID-MVY-ACK WHERE EVEN A TOUCH
OF RA IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION.  EVEN OVER ISLNDS...HWVR...ANTICIPATE
6+ INCHES SN.  SN/W.E. RATIOS WILL LKLY VARY SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY.  TREND WILL BE FOR LOWERING RATIO DURG STORM...BUT
PRBLY REMAINING GRTR THAN 10 TO 1 N OF PYM-PVD-IJD LN.  MAY SEE
20 TO 1 FOR A TIME ALG AND NW OF LWM-ORH-BDL LN.  COMB FLUFF FACTOR
AND MODERATELY LONG DURATION OF EVENT LKLY TO ENHANCE SNFL TOTALS
ACRS MUCH OF AREA.  WWE SNFL GRAPHIC LOOKS TO BE GOOD FIRST CUT ON
BROAD SCALE. THINKING ATTM IS FOR POTL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES S COAST...
INCL CAPE AND ISLANDS. BELIEVE 10 TO 20 INCHES POTL IN AREA BOUNDED
BY BVY-PYM-PVD-IJD-ORH-LWM-BVY.  REST OF AREA SEE 6 TO 12 INCH POTL
WITH SOMEWHAT HIER AMTS PSBL ORH HILLS...E SLOPES BERKS...SE
MONADNOCK RGN AND ANY AREA WHERE FRONTOGENETIC OR CSI BANDS SET UP...
NOTING POTL DEF ZN ACRS NW ZNS.  FOR MOST OF AREA...ANTICIPATE HVIEST
SN 16Z MON TO 12Z TUE.

STG SFC GRAD RAISES A CPL OF FCST ISSUES.  POTL FOR ENUF WIND AND HI
ENUF SN/W.E. RATIOS FOR BLZRD OR NR BLZRD CONDS SOME OF OUR ZNS...
WITH ESSEX...SUFFOLK...NORFOLK AND AND NRN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
AND PLYMOUTH CTYS PERHAPS WITH GRTST THRT OF APRCHG BLZRD CRIT.  HI
WIND WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CNSDRD BY LTR SHIFTS AS WELL FOR
CAPE/ISLNDS AND S CSTL RI.  NOTE THAT THIS STORM HAS POTL TO HIT BOS-
PVD CORRIDOR SVRLY.

ESTIMATE A 2 TO PSBLY 3 FT MAX STORM SURGE WITH THIS SYS ALG MA E
COAST.  THIS COINCIDES WITH SPRING TIDE CYCLE BUT STGST ONSHORE
GRAD XPCTD WITH THE MON NGT HI TIDE...WHICH IS ABT A FOOT LWR THAN
THE MON LATE MRNG AND TUE MIDDAY HI TIDES.  BY TUE MIDDAY...XPCT SFC
WIND ALG COAST TO BACK AROUND TO NW OR NNW BUT BY THEN MAY HAVE 15
FT SEAS NR BOS AND GLOUCESTER BUOYS.  THUS...CUR THINKING IS THAT
THERE IS MINOR CSTL FLDG THRT FOR ALL 3 TIDE CYCLES.  WILL INCLUDE
IN STATEMENT BUT HOLD OFF FM CSTL FLD WTCH FOR NOW.

STILL LONGER TERM...FRI/SAT...COMPLCTD SYS WITH BOTH NRN AND SRN
STRM COMPONENTS XPCTD TO AFFECT AREA.  COULD EVOLVE INTO A CPL OF
SYS...WITH FRZG...LIQ AND FRZN PCPN COMPONENTS.  MAY TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK LTR THIS MRNG.  FOR NOW...ATTN FOCUSED ON UPCOMING EVENT.

.BOX...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH MON/MON NGT ALL ZNS.
MA...WCADVY THIS MRNG MA2>4 WINTER STORM WATCH MON/MON NGT ALL ZNS.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH MON/MON NGT ALL ZNS.
NH...WCADVY THIS MRNG NH 11 12  WINTER STORM WATCH MON AFTN/NGT ALL
     ZNS
MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOS HARBOR AND NARR BAY.
      ...GALE WARNGS MAY BE REQ MON SRN CSTL WATERS AND MON NGT
         ALL WATERS.

$$
FIELD (SHORT TERM)
THOMPSON (LONG TERM)

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator