[HCRA] Possible ice storm
[email protected]
[email protected]
Fri, 4 Apr 2003 10:26:23 -0500
Hello to all...
>
> ....Potential for a freak April Ice Storm in Portions of interior
Southern
> New England Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning. All SKYWARN
Spotters,
> Coordinators and Net Controls should closely monitor this situation.
ARES
> and RACES Groups may also want to monitor this situation as well.
SKYWARN
> Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton may be needed during this
timeframe....
> ....A Winter WX Advisory is in effect for Southern New Hampshire,
Hampshire,
> Franklin, Worcester and Western Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for
> Tonight and Friday Morning....
> ....A Winter Storm Watch is posted for Southern New Hampshire, Interior
> Northeast Massachusetts, Western and Central Massachusetts and Hartford
> County CT for Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning for the
potential
of
> a freak April ice storm...
>
> The Winter WX Advisory is for a first event that will occur tonight
through
> Friday Morning where 3-6" of snow will fall over Southern New Hampshire
and
> a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will make travel
hazardous
in
> Western Massachusetts.
>
> More importantly, a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for Friday
Afternoon
> through Saturday Morning. It is in this timeframe that the potential
exists
> for a 1/2" or more of radial ice accretion across a significant part of
> interior Massachusetts, north of the Massachusetts Turnpike along with
> Southern New Hampshire. The precipitation type will play a huge role in
> determining what happens over this region. If the cold air layer is
deeper
> than expected, it could be more of a snow and sleet situation. If the
cold
> air layer is more shallow than expected, it could be more of a rain
event.
> Currently, the precipitation type chances for freezing rain resulting
in a
> possible ice storm are of greatest concern at this time for the region
under
> the watch and that is why the Winter Storm Watch was posted. A
significant
> amount of precipitation is expected during the watch timeframe and how
much
> of it falls in the form of freezing rain will play a huge role in
> determining if a rare April Ice Storm occurs across the region. The
> potential exists for SKYWARN Activation including Ops at NWS Taunton
for
> this event anytime from late Friday Afternoon through roughly Midday
> Saturday.
>
> The next email concerning this potential ice storm will be posted by 8
AM
> Friday. Below is the Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous WX
Outlook,
and
> Area Forecast Discussion for NWS Taunton:
>
> WWUS41 KBOX 032101
> WSWBOX
>
> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
> 357 PM EST THU APR 3 2003
>
> NHZ011-012-040419-
> CHESHIRE NH-HILLSBOROUGH NH-
> 357 PM EST THU APR 3 2003
>
> ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
> CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
> ...ALSO A WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR THIS SAME AREA FOR FRIDAY
> AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
>
> RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
> SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE IT
> DIMINISHES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
> A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
> RESTRICTED TO THE MONADNOCKS.
>
> SNOW WILL MAKE ROADWAYS SLICK LATER TONIGHT...SO MOTORISTS ARE URGED
> TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION. PAY ATTENTION TO CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS.
> SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. TRAVEL
> DELAYS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY.
>
> THE WATCH CENTERED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS FOR A
> RENEWED SURGE OF STEADY TO BRIEFLY HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
> BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND TAPERING TO NON
> FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS SECOND EVENT FOR
> TOMORROW NIGHT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A SERIOUS ICE STORM WITH OVER
> HALF AN INCH OF GLAZE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO AN OPTION FOR SOME
> SNOW OR CONSIDERABLE SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE GLAZE
> POTENTIAL.
>
> DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND QUANTITY...
> THIS SECOND PHASE OF THIS LONG DURATION STORM IS ONLY A WATCH.
>
> NEVERTHELESS RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
> SHOULD BE ALERT FOR A RATHER SERIOUS AND UNUSUAL LATE WINTER STORM.
>
> IF IT IS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...DAMAGING AMOUNTS OF GLAZE COULD
> OCCUR ON TREES AND WIRES WITH POWER OUTAGES.
>
> PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
> DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
>
> $$
>
>
> MAZ002>005-008-010-012-040419-
> EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
> SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
> WESTERN MIDDLESEX MA-
> 357 PM EST THU APR 3 2003
>
> ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
> FORENOON FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
> MASSACHUSETTS...
> ...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
> THIS SAME AREA FOR AN ICE STORM...
>
> SPECIFICALLY THIS ADVISORY WATCH COMBINATION INCLUDES WORCESTER
> COUNTY...NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY...ALL OF FRANKLIN AND HAMPSHIRE
> COUNTIES.
>
> RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN...SNOW OR SLEET LATE TONIGHT FROM
> NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING ALONG THE VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER
> NEAR MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING DOWN TO NEAR THE MASS TURNPIKE AROUND 4
> AM. WHILE SNOW MAY NOT BE THE MAIN THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF AN
> ELEVATION ICING SITUATION...OR SNOW AND SLEET...SHOULD CAUSE
> WIDESPREAD SLIPPERY TRAVEL TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY AND RESULT IN SOME
> DELAYS.
>
> MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION LATE TONIGHT AND PAY
> ATTENTION TO CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
> TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION TOMORROW MORNING.
>
> THE WATCH CENTERED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS FOR A
> RENEWED SURGE OF STEADY TO BRIEFLY HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
> BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND TAPERING TO NON
> FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS SECOND EVENT FOR
> TOMORROW NIGHT COULD TURN OUT TO BE A SERIOUS ICE STORM WITH OVER
> HALF AN INCH OF GLAZE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO AN OPTION FOR
> CONSIDERABLE SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE GLAZE
> POTENTIAL.
>
> DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND QUANTITY...
> THIS SECOND PHASE OF THIS LONG DURATION STORM IS ONLY A WATCH.
>
> NEVERTHELESS RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS
> SHOULD BE ALERT FOR A RATHER SERIOUS AND UNUSUAL LATE WINTER STORM.
>
> IF IT IS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...DAMAGING AMOUNTS OF GLAZE COULD
> OCCUR ON TREES AND WIRES WITH POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY THE ROUTE 2
> REGION OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
>
> $$
>
>
> CTZ002-MAZ006-007-009-011-014-040419-
> EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-HARTFORD CT-
> SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
> 357 PM EST THU APR 3 2003
>
> ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
> MORNING BOSTONS IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS THEN NEAR THE
> SPRINGFIELD HARTFORD AREA...
>
> THE WATCH CENTERED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS FOR A SURGE
> OF STEADY TO BRIEFLY HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION... BEGINNING LATE
> FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND TAPERING TO NON FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
> SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A SERIOUS ICE
> STORM WITH OVER HALF AN INCH OF GLAZE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY JUST
> NORTHWEST AND WEST OF BOSTON AND ALSO IN THE HILLY TERRAIN
> SURROUNDING HARTFORD SPRINGFIELD. THERE IS AN OPTION FOR
> CONSIDERABLE SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE GLAZE
> POTENTIAL.
>
> DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND QUANTITY...
> THIS IS ONLY A WATCH.
>
> NEVERTHELESS RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS IN THE BOSTON...SPRINGFIELD...
> HARTFORD AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR A RATHER SERIOUS AND UNUSUAL LATE
> WINTER STORM. PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
> ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
>
> $$
>
> DRAG
>
> FLUS41 KBOX 032251
> HWOBOX
> CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-041130-
>
> HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
> 550 PM EST THU APR 3 2003
>
> THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
> MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
> RHODE ISLAND.
>
> .DAY ONE...TODAY
>
> A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (WSWBOX) FOR AROUND 4 OR 5 INCHES OF SNOW
> IS POSTED FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
> MORNING AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR MUCH INFERIOR
> NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
> DETAILS ARE FOUND IN THE WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT.
>
> THE FLOOD STATEMENT (FLSBOX) CONTAINS INFORMATION ON CURRENTLY
> RECEDING CONNECTICUT RIVER WHICH COULD REVERSE AND RISE BACK INTO
> FLOOD OVER THE WEEKEND IN CONNECTICUT.
>
> .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
>
> A WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...MUCH OF
> NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE ELEVATIONS OF HARTFORD
> COUNTY FOR A POTENTIAL ICE STORM LATE FRIDAY INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
>
> ICE IS A CERTAINTY IN THE MASS PIKE REGION NORTHWARD BUT WHETHER ITS
> MOSTLY SLEET OR MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A VERY
> SHARP CHANGE IN AIRMASS DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
> AND ONLY A FEW MILES SHIFT CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN SNOW...SLEET
> AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS. PLEASE SEE SOME OF THE DETAILS IN THE
> WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT (WSWBOX). SOME OF THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE
> SCATTERED TRANSPORTATION DELAYS AND SOME POWER OUTAGES. ELEVATIONS
> ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SEVERELY IMPACTED...EVEN POSSIBLY DOWN INTO
> THE HILL TOWNS OF HARTFORD COUNTY.
>
> GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
> FRIDAY NIGHT.
>
> THE RIVER FLOOD THREAT IS REALISTIC IF THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY
> RAIN. HOWEVER...IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS MAINLY SLEET OR FREEZING
> RAIN...THEN THERE IS LESS CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS OR
> RENEWED FLOODING ON THE CONNECTICUT.
>
> THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FRIDAY AND NO FLOOD OUTLOOK STATEMENT WAS
> ISSUED SINCE THE CONCERN FOR A SERIOUS PROBLEM IS STILL LIMITED BY A
> LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
>
> THE WINTER WEATHER...GALE FORCE WIND AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT
> CONTINUES NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF AN ANOTHER STORM
> SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL.
>
> THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
> ENGLAND AREA WILL HAVE RECEIVED 3.5 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT
> PRECIPITATION BETWEEN TONIGHT AND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
>
> .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
>
> SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
> HOWEVER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.
> $$
>
> FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
> LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
> HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .
>
> DRAG
>
> FXUS61 KBOX 032228 AAB
> AFDBOX
>
> AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
> 528 PM EST THU APR 3 2003
>
> ...WINTER IS BACK FOR ONE IF NOT TWO STORMS NEXT 8 DAYS...
>
> SUGGEST PREPARE FOR SOME SERIOUS WINTER ICE PBLMS INTERIOR SNE
> ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS AND ESPECIALLY ORH COUNTY N AND W.
>
> CONF ON QPF AMTS ON THE PTYPE IS NOT ESPECIALLY GREAT...BUT THIS
> HAS SOCIAL IMPACT PBLMS FOR A PTN OF A SNE.
>
> UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
>
> .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
> FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OVERNIGHT.
> HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA NUDGING A RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NEW
> ENGLAND. RESULTING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
> AND FOG IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE
> BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
> TO MIX IN SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN NRN MASSACHUSETTS...EXCEPT A
> PRETTY GOOD DOSE OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WINTER
> WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.
>
> WITH NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
> PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BRIEFLY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...
> ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
>
> GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. DIURNAL RANGES
> SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL.
>
> MARINE WISE...NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS
> SHOULD PUSH SEAS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...MAINLY AFTER
> MIDNIGHT. WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OUTER COASTAL
> WATERS. WIND GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE MAY NEED A
> SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF OUR WATERS THEN.
>
> --- OVERVIEWVIEW AND LONGER TERM ---
>
> GRIDS: NEXT WEEKS SYSTEM WILL NEED LOTS OF WORK IN FUTURE SHIFTS.
> MOST OF THE EMPHASIS TNGT THRU SUNDAY. CLEANING UP NARR BAY WH FCST
> WHICH GRABBED A PIXEL FROM S COASTAL WATERS.
>
> ICE IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF STORM 1 INTERIOR. WHETHER WE GET A STORM 2
> NOT CERTAIN AND SOME POSSIBILITY IT WILL RUN SLOWER AND FURTHER S.
>
> MODELS: 12Z/4 ETA IS FAR TOO WARM IN SNE THIS AFTN. LEANING HEAVILY
> ON GFS/UK THERMAL PROFILES AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES NEXT 7
> DAYS.
>
> QPF: HEAVIER DOSE OF QPF SHOWING UP SW NYS AT 22Z AND HEADING FOR
> SNE. 18Z GFS CONTS TOTAL QPF OF 1.5" CEF-BDL BY 00Z SUNDAY!
> 2" MONADNOCKS! CUD B OVERDONE BUT CONSISTENT. CUD SEE A
> SLIGHT NWD SHIFT IN THE MAX AXIS IN REALITY BUT WE GO WITH IT.
> RUNNING SNOW TOTAL IS 15" OF ALGORITHM SNOW BY 00Z SUNDAY...
> JUST NW OF OUR CWA. GFS SFC TEMPS CONT EXCEEDINGLY COLD RTE 2
> REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT.
>
> WXA: FOR ZR/IP MIX AND 4" SNOW FOR SW NH 03Z-1659Z/4.
> WXA: FOR R TO ZR/IP FOR MA 2>5 AND 8 10/12 06Z-1659Z/4.
>
> WSA: ISSUED FOR NH 11/12 MA 2>7 8>12 14 AND CT 2 21Z FRI-18Z SAT.
> MAINLY AN ICE STORM THO OPTIONS FOR SNOW EXIST IN RATHER
> TIGHT PARTIAL THICKNESS GRADIENT WITH SLIGHT SHIFT N/S CHANGING
> THE PTYPE. ALSO WE'RE NOT SOLD ON AS MUCH SLEET AS
> PREDICTED BY THE SOUNDINGS BUT MAY BE PRIMARILY SNOW OR ZR.
>
> THIS WATCH MAY B TOO HEAVY A SIGNAL BUT IF ZR... BAD NEWS.
> WORRIED ABOUT ELEVATION ICE STORM. PUBLIC IMPACT LATE SEASON
> ALL CONTRIBUTED TO ISSUANCE. FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY NEED MORE
> ADVY/WARNING CONCERNS FURTHER SOUTH FROM CURRENT FCST.
>
> QPF: CONT TO BLV WDSPRD 1-2" NEXT 72 HRS WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE
> SATURDAY AS TT RISE TO 50+ AND SWI DIPS TO NR ZERO DESPITE
> REL COLD SFC TEMPS...IE CONVECTION ROOTED IN THE ELEVATED
> INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM CUD GEN 3+ SOMEWHERE NRN MA.
> QPF NEXT 24 HRS TENDS TO BE GENERATED BY 7H JET CORE ARRIVING
> AND PASSING THRU SNE TONIGHT. TOOLS DIDNT PUT THUNDER IN
> SO WE'LL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
>
> ICE: BOTH THIS EVENT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE FAVORABLE
> CHARACTERISTICS FOR HEAVY PCPN INCLUDING WINTRY PTYPE DUE
> TO HUGE SFC HIGH SPREADING OUT ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE
> CANADA ALLOWING FOR CONSTANT REFRESHENING OF AN ALMOST
> UNENDING SUPPLY OF BLO FRZG WET BULB. WHILE THERE IS
> LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING AXIS OF HEAVY QPF NEXT M NIT-WED (DOES
> IT MISS SOUTH?) THERE IS APPARENTLY AS MUCH OR MORE
> LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW ACCUM DOWN TO I84 REGION OF N CT.
>
> HYDRO: ESF MAY B ISSUED AT 530 PM PER NEW GFS QPF AND ASSITANCE OF
> NERFC CONTINGENCY RUN WHICH BRINGS THE CT RVR BACK INTO FLOOD
> THIS WKND AT HFD/MDD AND NEAR FLOOD AT A NUMBER OF OTHER
> GAGES. PTYPE IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN COMPLICATION FOR
> FLOODING.
>
> YDY: SHARP SRN EDGE OF QPF ROUGHLY BDL-MVY LINE WITH MANY REPS .3
> TO .4 A BIT FURTHER N THAN EXPECTED YDY ROUGHLY SW NH TO N
> CENTRAL MA. GFS QPF VALUES MUCH BETTER WITH AXIS COMPRIMISE
> BTWN GFS/ETA AS BEST.
>
> .BOX...
> CT...FLW FOR CT RVR CTZ002 /HARTFORD AND MIDDLETOWN/.
> MA...NONE.
> NH...NONE.
> RI...NONE.
> MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT ANZ250-254-255.
> SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY ANZ230>237.
> $$
> BELK/DRAG
>
> Respectfully Submitted,
>
> Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
> ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
> SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Eric Tuller N1QKO
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