[HCRA] NWS from Miami

Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:34:14 -0400

This advisory may be a bit more comprehensible to us laypersons:

WTNT32 KNHC 281446
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT SEP 28 2002

...KYLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND HAS 
WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 435 MILES...700 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A 
SLOW...GENERALLY WESTWARD...MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.  

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...26.3 N... 63.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of [email protected]
Sent: Friday, September 27, 2002 7:49 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [HCRA] NWS from Miami

______________________________________________
-------Hampden County Radio Association------- -----------e-mail list
(reflector)------------- ______________________________________________
WTNT42 KNHC 271430
HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002

KYLE HAS BEEN DOING AN ADMIRABLE JOB IN FIGHTING OFF THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF KYLE...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DESCENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AND
SO IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SHEAR TENDENCY CHARTS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER KYLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALSO...THE LOCALLY PRODUCED DRY AIR
NORTH OF KYLE MAY START TO GET ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION AT LOWER
LEVELS.  AS A RESULT...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LESSEN AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION
LATER IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/4.  KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A
STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND KYLE IS
TRAPPED IN BETWEEN.  WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY PUSH
IMMINENT...KYLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE BERMUDA/U.S.  RIDGE WILL SLIDE OR BUILD WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER. HOWEVER...TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE UKMET RECURVES KYLE INTO
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS OFFSHORE THE U.S.  EAST COAST IN 72
HOURS...WHILE THE AVN TAKES KYLE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND MISSES
THE TROUGH.  ONLY THE BAM MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY TIME FRAME.  THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH ANTICIPATES KYLE
BEING ABANDONED BY ANY APPRECIABLE STEERING FLOW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     27/1500Z 26.9N  60.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.8N  61.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.6N  61.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.5N  62.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  62.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W    65 KTS

 WWWW

Eric N1QKO

------Hampden County Radio Association-------
An ARRL Special Services Club for over 50 years
------------http://www.hcra.org------------
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