[HCRA] : Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

Eric N1QKO

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>

Date: Thu, 26 Sep 2002 08:36:58 -0400
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1


Hello to all...

...Remnants of Isidore Forecast to Move into the Northeast US Friday as a
vigorous storm system....
...Synpotic Straight Line Winds and Possible Wind Damage May Occur Across
Portions of Southern New England...
...SPC places CT, RI and Southeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for
Severe
Weather with the threat of wind damage and an isolated tornado over this
area. Areas North and West of this line is in a general risk for
thunderstorms with a 5% probability of severe weather...

While track solutions are still varying at this time, the remnants of
Isidore is forecast to move Northeastward with the low center tracking
into
New York State late Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. This will result
in
Heavy Rainfall across interior Massachusetts North and west of Norfolk
County through Southern NH and possibly parts of Northern RI and Northern
CT. Areas of Southern New England will also be in the warm convective and
strong wind sector. This will set the stage for a potential synoptic
strong
wind event. Thunderstorms are also possible and embedded thunderstorms
could
also cause wind damage and possibly even an isolated tornado per latest
SPC
track guidance.

Rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts are expected across
the
region. The higher amounts are expectd in northern and western parts of
the
area with lesser amounts as you move south and east. With the dry
conditions
of the past several months, flooding seems to be a low risk but if
heavier
rainfall amounts fall then expected in a 6 hour period, flash flooding
might
be possible. The strongest winds would be expected across Central and
Eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut.

SPC has placed much of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast
Massachusetts
in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Damaging winds and possibly an
isolated
small tornado would be the primary threats. Remnant tropical systems can
and
occasionally do produce an isolated small tornado. The greatest threat is
south and east of the storm center track which is in the slight risk
area. A
15% probability of severe weather is posted in this slight risk area.
North
of this area, a 5% risk for severe weather is posted. The time the most
favorable area of severe weather hits is towards the end of the day which
may mitigate the threat but jet dynamics would be strong enough for an
embedded thunderstorm or two to produce damaging wind or an isolated
small
tornado.

The next email will be posted by 11:30 PM this evening. Pages will be
sent
throughout the day to update the threat.

Below is the NWS Taunton Special WX Statement and AFD and the SPC Day-2
Convective Outlook:

 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 N HSE 15 SSE GSB 45 WNW FLO 10 ENE HKY 20 WNW ROA 45 NNE SHD
   35 ENE CXY 30 E POU 30 NNW HYA.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HSE
   25 NNW ILM 55 WNW CHS 15 ENE VLD 35 WNW CTY ...CONT... 35 WSW PNS
   25 NW AUO 20 NW CHA 30 WSW BNA 35 SSW EVV 25 ESE FWA 35 N ERI
   35 WSW SLK 20 N BML 25 NW EPM 15 SE HUL.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 15 ENE AGR
   10 NE VRB.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRA 50 SE ELY
   45 NW ENV 30 N LOL 35 E 4LW 50 WNW BOI 30 W DLN 20 NNE WRL
   30 WNW RAP 30 NE HON 15 WNW SUX 30 NNE EAR 15 ENE IML 15 SE LIC
   25 WSW RTN 30 SE GNT 30 SW SOW 50 SSE IGM DRA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   T.S. ISIDORE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON EXTRATROPICAL
   CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD FROM THE KY/TN AREA ACROSS
   THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND INTO NEW ENG FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.  WIDE
   DISPARITIES EXIST REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION IN MODEL
   GUIDANCE.  BUT LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS...BEHAVIOR OF STORM
   IN RECENT DAYS...AND LATEST SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
   FASTER/MORE COHERENT SOLUTION OF THE AVN IS TO BE PREFERRED.

   IN THE WEST...IT APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW ONE THAT IS NOW DROPPING SE INTO NW
   BC.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...EXPECT THAT A PIECE OF UPPER LOW NOW
   OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL BE DRAWN NEWD INTO SRN CA/AZ.

   ...CNTRL/ERN NC NEWD INTO MID ATL CSTL PLN...
   MODERATE TO STRONG WIND FIELD IN SERN QUADRANT OF ISIDORE WILL
   SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/PIEDMONT OF NC AND VA BY
   MIDDAY FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE NYC AREA BY DUSK.

   GIVEN WEDGE OF RELATIVELY COOL/DRY SURFACE AIR NOW IN PLACE FROM
   THE TN VLY NEWD TO THE MID ATL COAST...AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
   LIKELY OVER REGION BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY...EXPECT THAT A COASTAL
   TYPE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP AND REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM
   CNTRL/ERN NC NEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AREA ON FRIDAY.  THIS FEATURE
   MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARILY
   IF DRY SLOT NOW APPARENT IN W.V. IMAGERY ON S SIDE OF ISIDORE
   ROTATES NEWD ACROSS REGION...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
   STEEPEN.  BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCLS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF TORNADOES IF SURFACE-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM.  SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD NE INTO THE NYC LATER IN THE DAY...AND
   POSSIBLY INTO SRN NEW ENG AT NIGHT...AS ERN PART OF COASTAL
   BOUNDARY ACCELERATES NWD WITH DEEPENING SLY FLOW.

   FARTHER W...ELEVATED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION FORMING CLOSER TO
   MAIN TRACK OF ISIDORE SUGGESTS THAT TORNADO THREAT IN THE CNTRL/NRN
   APPALACHIANS WILL BE LIMITED.  BUT STRONG WIND FIELD JUST OFF THE
   SURFACE MAY YIELD LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS FROM NC
   NWD INTO PA/NY.

   ..CORFIDI.. 09/26/02

WWUS81 KBOX 261006
SPSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-261515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
519 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST.  FRIDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEARLY 50 MPH
POSSIBLE.  WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONGER...SO ELEVATED
LOCATIONS COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER WINDS.  BLUSTERY WINDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...
AS WELL AS BLOW LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND.  MARINERS SHOULD ALSO TAKE
PRECAUTIONS FOR THEIR BOATS...AND AT LEAST CHECK THE MOORINGS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FEELS THE RAINFALL
WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1 INCH OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS...TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES IN THE WORCESTER HILLS...
NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.  THIS WOULD CAUSE PONDING OF THE WATER ON STREETS AND
COULD AFFECT STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS.

THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FXUS61 KBOX 260704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

FCST HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON TRACK OF ISIDORE...WHICH IS XPCTD TO MAKE
TRANSFORMATION TO RATHER VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT PASSES NR
OR OVR SNE.  AVN AND GEM ARE VRY SIMILAR IN TRACK AND INTENSITY.
WRM FNTL ACTION SETS UP ABT 30 HRS PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF ISIDORE...
WITH SFC FNT OVR WATERS S OF NEW ENG AND SFC RIDGING HELPING TO
ENHANCE OVRNG LATE THU THRU FRI. TIMING OF ONSET A LTL TRICKY AND
MIGHT SEE ONE OR TWO VRY LGT BANDS OF RA BFR STDIER AND MORE MSBL
RAFL SETS IN.  INITIAL THINKING IS TO GO STG CHC OR LOW LKLY THIS
AFTN IN SW AND CHC ELSW.  THEN CAT TNGT SW...HI STG CHC SW NH AND
LKLY ELSW FLWD BY CAT FRI AND FRI NGT ALL ZNS. NOT SO CONFID THAT ETA
HAS AS GOOD A HANDLE ON ISIDOR CIRCLN AS AVN OR GEM.  FCST BASED ON
TRACK EXTRATROPICAL ISIDORE CLOSE TO IPT-PSF-PSM LN...NR TO JUST A
LTL SE OF AVN/GEM SOLNS. SGNFCNT ISSUES CONSIDER WITH LOW PASSAGE
INCLD QPF...WIND...SVR RISK AND SEAS.

QPF...DONT PLAN TO STRAY TOO FAR FM PREV FCST.  AN ERLY ESTIMATE
WOULD BE FOR 2-4 INCHES NW OF BDL-ORH-LWM LN AND LESSER TO SE FOR
PERIOD MNLY 00Z FRI - 12Z SAT...WITH HVIEST BURST SOMEWHERE BTWN 15Z
FRI AND 09Z SAT.  RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDS WILL HELP
REDUCE AT LEAST MAIN STEM FLOODING THRT.  SMALL STRM FLOOD RISK
WILL LKLY DEPEND HVLY UPON 6 HRLY RATES.

WIND/SVR...PROJECTED TRACK OF LOW AND CLIMO OF SYSTEMS WITH
TROPICAL ORIGIN POINT TO WIND AND SVR THRT.  NOTE STRENGTHENING LOW
LVL JET AS SYS PASSES THRU NEW ENG...AVN SHOWS 65 KTS AT H85 AT 06Z
SAT STRENGTHENING TO 75+ KTS GLF OF ME AT 12Z SAT.  FAIRLY STG
BAROCLINICITY TO AID EXTRATROPICAL DVLPMNT AS SYS PASSES THRU NERN
US. STGST WIND THRT LOOKS TO BE FM S FRI NGT.  LOOKS LIKE HI WIND
POTL BUT TOO ERLY...SPCLY WITH STILL SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY...TO
ISSUE HI WIND WATCH.  WILL ISSUE SPS ADDRESSING WIND OTLK POTL LTR
THIS SHIFT.  WILL INCLD MARINE IMPACT IN SPS.  NW FLOW BHND SYS ON
SAT ACCMPND BY FAIRLY STG CAA MAY END UP BEING NEAR OR JUST UNDER
WIND ADVSY MATERIAL. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS NOT THAT IMPRSV FRI NGT
BUT COMBINED WITH STG DNYAMICS.  BELIEVE THIS HAS POTL FOR PRIMARILY
A SYNOPTIC HI WIND EVENT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED
STG CONVCTV CELLS CAPABLE OF ENHANCED LCLZD DAMAGE.

OTRW...MINOR TWEAKING OF TEMPS...BROUGHT SAT MAX AND SUN MIN UP JUST
A TAD FM PREV FCST.  BROUGHT CUR AND NEXT 12 HRS OF DWPTS IN LINE
WITH CUR WITH AID OF LOCAL LAPS APPLICATION.

MARINE...SCA CONDS INITIALLY FOR SEAS...ALL S AND SE OUTER COAST
BUOYS SHOWING 5 FT.  PLAN ON STG S GALE POTL FOR FRI NGT...
ANTICIPATING 3 TO 6 HR PRD OF STGST WINDS WITH ISOBARIC
ACCELERATION COMPONENT AS LOW PASSES N OF WATERS.  LOOKING AT ABT
35-40 KT SUSTAINED WITH PSBL 45 KTS AS FIRST CUT.  SAT WINDS ON BACK
SIDE OF SYS LOOK TO BE STG SCA OR MRGNL GALE IN NW FLOW GIVEN SFC
PRES GRAD AND CAA.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR SEAS PVC-ACK AND MONTAUK-ACK.  SCA MAY BE REQD MERR
RVR-PYM.  GLW MAY BE REQD ALL WATERS FRI NGT.

$$

THOMPSON

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator