[HCRA] Bad WX possible

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

Hello to all...

Potential for Severe Weather Wednesday. SPC has placed Southern New
England
in a slight risk for Severe WX. Damaging Winds and Large Hail the primary
threats. Also mentioned in NWS Taunton AFD and new NWS "HWO" or the
Hazardous Weather Outlook product. Please see details below, if slight
risk
is continued in the next outlook, I will post a general message to my
larger
email distribution, see details below:

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 WNW LBB 10 W CVS 35 NNW TCC 30 ENE CAO 20 WSW LBL 30 ESE LBL
   15 N GAG 20 SE GAG 30 NW LTS 20 SSW CDS 30 WNW LBB.

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   20 NNE JFK 30 SW AVP 10 NE PSB 20 N BFD 10 SE ROC 30 NNW SYR
   25 WNW SLK 20 SSW PBG PWM.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE NEL 40 ENE CRW
   45 S SDF 10 E MKO 30 SSE OKC 20 WNW SJT 40 NW HDO 25 N POE
   25 N PNS 25 ENE ORL.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ELP 50 NW TCS
   60 ENE SOW 20 ESE INW PRC 15 SE EED 55 SW LAS 20 NNE DRA
   25 ESE ELY 10 S DPG 45 SSE EVW 45 SSE RKS 25 SSW SNY 25 SW GLD
   45 WSW RSL 15 W STJ 30 SSW BRL 30 SW SBN 30 NE MTC.



   ...SYNOPSIS...

   STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SWRN U.S. BEGINS TO TURN EWD AS HEIGHT FALLS
   DEVELOP PAC NW BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW
   AN E/W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS SERN U.S... WITH FAST CONFLUENT
   WLYS ACROSS GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

   SURFACE COLD FRONT WED AM WILL EXTEND FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW NRN
   MI WSWWD ACROSS KS INTO NERN NM.    FRONT AND SFC LOW MOVE RAPIDLY
   EWD TO OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH PORTION
   TRAILING BACK TO WSW EXTENDING ACROSS NRN/WRN OK INTO SRN TX
   PANHANDLE AND ECENTRAL NM.

   HURRICANE LILI FORECASTED TO TRACK NW ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
   AND POSSIBLY BE APPROACHING TX/LA GULF COASTAL WATERS BY END OF
   FORECAST PERIOD.

   ...NERN U.S...
   AS FRONT MOVES EWD DURING DAY REACHING ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ERN
   GREAT LAKES BY EVENING...WLY WINDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING
   ACROSS NERN U.S.  ADVECTION OF MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA  WILL
   INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS
   NY/PA BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND
   DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S.

   WITH VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONT AND SURFACE
   WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NY/NRN PA DURING
   AFTERNOON.  WITH  850/700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KT AND
   500 MB TO NEAR 60KT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   FOR A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND BY EVENING PRIOR TO FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
   LATER WED NIGHT.

   ..HALES.. 10/01/02

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z

FXUS61 KBOX 010734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2002

...2002 STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SUMMER THAT DOESNT WANT TO END...

NOT EXPECTING RECORD HEAT TODAY OR WED...BUT TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN
80S ALL XCPT HIEST ELEV...AND PERHAPS ONLY SHY OF RECORDS BY A FEW
DEG. H85 TEMPS 16C BOTH DAYS AND DEEP WSW FLOW FAVOR WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS. BOTH FWC AND MAV GUID LOOK A TAD TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS
FOR BOTH TODAY AND WED...AND HAVE STAYED WITH PREV FCST OR PREV FCST
PLUS A DEG OR TWO. CLDS WED AFTN COULD DAMPEN HI TEMPS A BIT IN WRN
ZNS.  IN EVENT WE MAKE A RUN AT A RECORD OR TWO...HERE ARE HI TEMP
RECORDS FOR TODAY AND WED...
               OCT 1          OCT 2
          BOS  90  1881       88  1954
          PVD  88  1950       87  1927
          BDL  89  1927       91  1927
          ORH  86  1927       83  1922

HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FM PREV FCST POPS FOR WED AFTN AND EVE.
FNT MAY BE JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH LTST OPTNL RUNS.  WITH SUCH A STG
UPR RIDGE...WOULD NOT EXPECT FNT TO MOVE TOO FAST S OF RGN WED
NGT/THU AM.  LOOKS LIKE FNTL BNDRY SHUD GET FAR ENUF S THO FOR DRY
DAY ON THU.

BELIEVE A FEW STG TSTMS APRCHG SVR PSBL WED AFTN/EVE...SPCLY ALG
AND N OF BDL-BOS LN...WHERE MRGNL INSTBLTY INTERSECTS WITH STG WIND
FIELDS...REL HI PWS...AND SFC CONVRG.

NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON DETAILS OF THE ABSORPTION OF LILI INTO
MID LAT S/W TROF FRI/SAT.  MODIFIED POPS A LTL FRI AND SAT BASED ON
LTST GFS AND GEM RUNS.  LOOKS LIKE THRT OF WAA SHWRS FRI BUT PLAN TO
LWR POPS FM LKLY TO CHC.  ALTHO GFS SHWG SIGNATURE OF IB ALG ST
LAWRENCE VLY PER K INDEX AND UVM FIELDS...BOTH GFS AND GEM RISING H5
HGTS AND NEITHER SHOWG MUCH PCPN OR UVM OVR SNE. CFROPA LKLY SAT...
BUT CSDBL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH ATTM.  NOTE THAT GEM
APRS TO ABSORB LILI MORE FULLY INTO DEEPENING SYS MOVG INTO CNTL
QUEBEC SAT WHEREAS GFS APRS TO KEEP LILI REMNANTS A LTL MORE
DISTINCT FM NRN S/W SYS...WITH WKR SFC LOW OVR QUEBEC AND INDCTN OF
LILI REMNANTS MOVG OVR SNE.  IF GFS SOLN TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE...
MAY SEE PRD HVY RA AND PSBLY SGNFCNT WIND GUSTS SAT.

PREV FCST OF DRY WX FOR SUN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN LTST GFS AND
GEM RUNS.  SEE NO REASON TO CHNG.

HWO...HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK...STARTS THIS MORNING.  ITS PURPOSE IS
TO PROVIDE A BRIEF SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL ADVERSE WX EVENTS DAYS
1>7.  THE DETAILS WILL B LEFT TO THE INDIVIDUAL HAZARD PRODUCTS
THAT WE'RE ALL FAMILIAR WITH.

MARINE...MRGNL SCA CONDS TODAY DUE TO WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS OVR
OUTER WATERS.  SIMILAR CONDS WED AHEAD OF FNT.  FOR NOW...
KEEPING JUST BLO SCA CONDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NR 20 KTS AND
SCT G25 KTS.  SGNFCNT SW GRAD SAT...PSBLY IN STG SCA RANGE.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ALL XCPT CC BAY...BOS HRBR AND NAR BAY.

$$

THOMPSON/BUTTRICK
Eric N1QKO