[HCRA] From Rob, KD1CY

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

 Looks like traveling to gradma's will by fun this year!!
Happy holidays
Eric



Hello to all...

....First Moderate Snowstorm of the Year Expected Across Much of Southern
New England Late Tuesday Night and Wednesday....
....Winter Storm Watch posted for Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties
of
Northern Connecticut for late Tuesday Night and Wednesday...
....Impact of this Event May Be More Significant Due to it Being the
Busiest
Travel Day of the Year....

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Storm Watch
for
Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties of Northern Connecticut. NWS
Brookhaven has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of Southern CT. This
watch is being issued for the potential of 6" or more of snow in the
watch
area. A nor'easter will get organized off of the New England coast and
its
track and intensity will determine how much snow portions of Southern New
England will get. Since its the busiest travel day of the year, its
impact
could be a bit more significant then a snowstorm of similar magnitude
happening in a different timeframe.

A general snowfall of 2-5" is likely across much of Southern New England
from this storm. Lesser amounts of 1-2" are possible across Cape Cod and
the
Islands as rain may mix with the snow in that area. There is the
potential
that snow may total a bit more than 5" in higher terrain locations of
Central and Western Massachusetts and Northern Rhode Island. Snowfall is
more conditional over Southern New Hampshire, where they may only be
affected by lighter snows as they will be on the northern fringe of this
system at this time.

At this time snowfall will generally stay below the SKYWARN
Self-Activation
threshold of 10" or more but reports of snowfall every 2" and final
snowfall
amounts should be phoned into NWS Taunton throughout this event.

The next coordination message will be posted by Noon tomorrow.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch statement, Special Weather
Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook.

WWUS41 KBOX 251958
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
258 PM EST MON NOV 25 2002

CTZ002>004-260145-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-
258 PM EST MON NOV 25 2002

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

THE FIRST MODERATE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS WINTER STORM
WATCH INCLUDES HARTFORD...TOLLAND AND WINDHAM COUNTIES OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN HEAD NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.  IT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
TIMING OF THIS SNOWFALL COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL
LEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM AND
ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD.

$$

DRV

WWUS81 KBOX 252227
SPSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-260415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
525 PM EST MON NOV 25 2002

...A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW EVENT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND POINTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

WHILE THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER IS ON WEDNESDAY...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR SPOTTY BLACK ICE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY IN NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A 9 TO 15 HOUR SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM AND EXIT THE REGION
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE RAIN SNOW LINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT ODDS
STILL FAVOR A MANAGEABLE BUT PLOWABLE SNOW FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
WHAT LESSER SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE A RAIN
AND SNOW MIXTURE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CONNECTICUT WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR SNOW MAKING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING TRAVEL WITH AN AVERAGE OF HALF A FOOT POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER... THAT SNOWFALL IS LISTED AS POSSIBLE.  THE WATCH LEAVES
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOWFALL COULD BE LESS THAN EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WEAKER.

VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES THANKSGIVING MORNING IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.  WIND
CHILL AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO IN MUCH OF THE AREA.

AGAIN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EXACT DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE CHANCE FOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS 95 PERCENT WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...POSSIBLY IMPACTING ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE
YEAR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$
DRAG

FLUS41 KBOX 252217
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-261045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
509 PM EST MON NOV 25 2002

.DAY ONE...

SPOTTY BLACK ICE MAY BECOME A PROBLEM INTERIOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 AM
TUESDAY.  THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL QUIT AND THEN IT WILL
SUDDENLY CLEAR AND POSSIBLY MAKE AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR THE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE TO ICE UP BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

ANY OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL SHOULD BE HIGH TERRAIN AND LIMITED TO HALF AN
INCH OR LESS IN THE MONADNOCK REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND OTHER SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RELAY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A PLOWABLE SNOW IS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AT THIS EARLY STAGE...WE STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5
INCH SNOWFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AN 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF
AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND
AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT WITH A 40 PERCENT RISK OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE RISK CONTINUES FOR SPOTTY 7 OR 8 INCH OF SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN NEAR INTERSTATE 84 TO NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IS ONLY ABOUT 25 PERCENT.

FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THE PRECIPITATION MAY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN
OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHEAST
WIND THAT DEVELOPS.

THERE SHOULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MODERATE SNOW WITH THIS EVENT FROM
HARTFORD TO NEAR PROVIDENCE...WORCESTER AND BOSTON.

NOT TO BE TAKEN OUT OF CONTEXT NOR TO PROMOTE UNDUE TRANSPORTATION
CONCERNS AT THIS VERY EARLY STAGE... SINCE WE CANNOT BE SURE HOW
MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON PAVEMENT...
BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT ALL UNTREATED PAVEMENT WILL BECOME
SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

THE COASTAL ROUTE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A SLUSHY WET
ACCUMULATION WITH A POWDERY COLDER SNOWFALL IN THE INTERIOR.

THIS PROBABLE QUICK MOVING LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOW STORM IS
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME EFFECT ON TRAVEL.

SNOW WILL BEGIN BEFORE DAWN IN CONNECTICUT AND THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
DRIVE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED THERE.

GENERALLY... THE HEAVIEST...MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR
SOMETIME BETWEEN 9 AM AND 4 PM.

SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS IN COASTAL EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...PARTLY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION.

MORE DETAILS SHOULD BE KNOWN TUESDAY...WHEN EITHER WE ISSUE A WATCH
FOR THE MODERATE SNOW STORM POTENTIAL...OR WE REMAIN WITH SIMPLE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS IN LIGHTER IMPACT ADVISORY LEVEL.

NORTHWARD EDGE OF THE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY ITS RACES NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
WILL INTRUDE THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO THANKSGIVING.

WIND CHILL AT SUNRISE THANKSGIVING SHOULD RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5
BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING MAYBE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
THE RECORD FOR NOVEMBER 28.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO OUR WINTER STORM OUTLOOK PRODUCT
VIA THE WEB SITE BELOW.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

DRAG

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator