[HCRA] Weekend weather

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

Hello to all...

....Winter Storm Watch for a Potential Ice Storm Posted for Southern New
Hampshire (Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties)and Northwest Massachusetts
from Northern Worcester County and Franklin County Massachusetts for
tonight
and Sunday Morning for Ice Accretion of .50" or greater....
....1-3" of Rain Expected Across Portions of Eastern Massachusetts and
Rhode
Island Tonight and Sunday. Flood threat is being monitored....
....There is a remote chance for an isolated Severe Thunderstorm Across
Cape
Cod and the Islands Sunday....
....Strong Winds May Prompt a Wind Advisory for Portions of Eastern
Massachusetts and Rhode Island Tonight, Sunday and/or Monday as winds
increase with the storm system....
....SKYWARN Self-Activation Will Be Required in the Winter Storm Watch
Area
and could upshift to Formal Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton for
Tonight
and/or Sunday Morning if a Warning is Issued....

The first Winter Storm Watch of the season has been posted for Southern
New
Hampshire, Northern Worcester County and Franklin County Massachusetts.
Snow
and Sleet will begin over this area today and then change over to
freezing
rain and become heavy at times. How long of a duration of freezing rain
occurs will determine whether it results in just treacherous driving
conditions or an ice storm where damage to trees and power lines would
cause
power outages and potential communication outages. A watch is issued to
monitor the threat. If the threat becomes more certain, a Winter Storm
Warning will be issued. Neighboring areas to the south and east of the
watch
area may have a Winter WX Advisory posted later today for a period of
icing
enough to cause tough driving conditions but not result in any damaging
ice
accumilations.

If a Winter Storm Warning is issued, Ops at NWS Taunton will be activated
for a period of time tonight and Sunday Morning. If an advisory is
issued,
SKYWARN Self-Activation will be requested to monitor the threat to assure
that the freezing rain threat only causes hazardous driving conditions
and
not damage to infrastructure.

It will be critical to report the following items:

-Changeover in precipitation when the precipitation changeour takes hold.
(Snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain and vice-versa)
-Ice accretion in 1/4" increments.
-Any damage to trees, power lines caused by ice accretion.
-Final Snowfall total prior to changeover and snowfall in 2" increments.

Across the rest of the interior, a period of snow and sleet is possible
but
will change to rain fairly rapidly across the region. Rain will be heavy
at
times with the potential for 1-3" of rain across the region. Right now
flooding does not appear to be an issue but is being monitored. There is
an
outside chance of a Severe Thunderstorm across Cape Cod and the Islands
tonight and/or Sunday based on instability parameters.

Also, strong winds are possible as the storm winds up across the region.
A
Wind Advisory may be required anytime from tonight through Monday.

Pages will be sent throughout the day to update the threat. An additional
email will be posted this evening unless Ops Activation is requested.
Below
is the Winter Storm Watch Statement, Special WX Statement, Hazardous
Weather
Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Taunton:

WWUS41 KBOX 160912
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

MAZ002>004-NHZ011-012-161457-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
409 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...

THE WATCH INCLUDES CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN
MASSACHUSETTS.

SOME SNOW AND SLEET WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...DRIVEN INTO THE AREA ON INCREASING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SNOWFALL MAY ADD UP TO AN INCH OR TWO THIS
MORNING... ESPECIALLY HIGH TERRAIN.  SOME SURFACES COULD BECOME
SLIPPERY...PRIMARILY HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS
BORDER.

UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TEND TO ICE UP FIRST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT HOWEVER...SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN A NOREASTER HEADS FOR NEW ENGLAND. THIS ONE...LIKE MANY
IN RECENT WINTERS WILL HAVE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALOFT... AND
SO ANY SNOW OR SLEET CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WILL CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.

NORTHEAST FACING HIGH TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE BY
MID MORNING SUNDAY.

IF THAT OCCURS...POWER OUTAGES WOULD DEVELOP AS BRANCHES BREAK FROM
THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE.

THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN CAN
ACCUMULATE TONIGHT AND WHEN WILL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THOSE UNCERTAINTIES REQUIRE A WATCH MONITORING MODE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY DAMAGING AMOUNTS OF ICE.  IT APPEARS THE
WALPOLE..ALSTEAD...WESTMORELAND AND THE VICINITY OF JAFFREY HAVE THE
GREATEST RISK OF SUBSTANTIAL ICING.

NO MATTER THE AMOUNT OF ICE TONIGHT...UNTREATED SURFACES IN NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BECOME SLIPPERY FOR A
TIME.

PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$
DRAG

WWUS81 KBOX 161118
SPSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ005>024-RIZ001>007-161645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
617 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

...DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...

MUCH COLDER AIR IS BEING DRIVEN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING ON GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.  AT DAYBREAK SNOW WAS FALLING
FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO THE ALBANY BINGHAMTON
PITTSFIELD AREA. IT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MID MORNING.  WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY
BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO HIGH TERRAIN
TODAY...IT STILL CAN MAKE UNTREATED PAVEMENT SLICK AND A BIT
SLUSHY.

THEN THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
PRIMARY EVENT STARTS THIS EVENING.

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST VIRGINIA TO FLORIDA WILL ORGANIZE
INTO A STRONG GALE OR STORM IN THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THEN RACE
ACROSS CAPE COD AS A NOREASTER LATE SUNDAY.

IN ADVANCE OF ITS ARRIVAL...HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND IN THE INTERIOR...IT MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ICE FROM THE MASS
TURNPIKE NORTHWARD INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

WATCHES FOR DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE ALREADY POSTED FROM
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO VERMONT AND
PORTIONS OF UPPER NEW YORK STATE.

WHILE DAMAGE FROM ICE IS NOT ASSURED... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
HIGHLY LIKELY. THOSE WHO NEED TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE WEST TWO THIRDS
OF MASSACHUSETTS INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND OR INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE...SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIPPERY TRAVEL LATER
THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

ALONG THE COAST...ANY SNOW SLEET MIXTURE LATER THIS MORNING WILL
TURN INTO A WIND SWEPT BONE CHILLING RAIN TONIGHT. ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING
FROM A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

ONE TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD...TAPERING DOWN A BIT DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND LEAF CLOGGED STORM SEWERS.

ANY MARINER VENTURING FROM PORT IS AT RISK FROM STRONG GALES AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FEET IN THE OPEN OCEAN LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF HIGH TIDE
SPLASHOVER AT THE VULNERABLE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS OCEAN EXPOSURES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$
DRAG

FLUS41 KBOX 161141
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-171130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
635 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

.DAY ONE...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR
FRANKLIN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS INTO
CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THIS IN PREPARATION FOR A POSSIBLE ICE STORM.

ICING WILL OCCUR... JUST HOW SERIOUS IT WILL BE DEPENDS ON THE
AMOUNT...INTENSITY AND DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN.  MORE DETAILS ARE
POSTED IN THE 409 AM WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND OTHER SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO RELAY ICE ACCRETION OF MORE THAN A
QUARTER INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ICING WILL ABATE IN THE INTERIOR OF MASSACHUSETTS AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
SUNDAY.

HEAVY WINDSWEPT AND BONE CHILLING RAINS WILL EASE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MIDDAY OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE 617 AM SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH... ESPECIALLY THE COAST AND HIGH TERRAIN.

THEN THE REST OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator



                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service