[HCRA] Fw: Severe Weather Coordination Message

Mon, 17 Jun 2002 08:59:42 -0400

Hello to all....

...Thunderstorms with Small Hail and Wind Gusts Possible Today with
Isolated
Severe Weather Possible...
...SKYWARN Self-Activation Possible Again Today. Unclear if NWS Taunton
Ops
Will Be Needed...

Another threat for thunderstorms exist across the NWS Taunton region for
this afternoon and evening. The setup is similiar to yesterday but at the
present time is not expected to be as strong as yesterday where numerous
marginal severe hail and isolated wind damage reports are received. With
Sun
over the region, temperatures will climb and with cold air and
instability
aloft conditions will be ripe for thunderstorms again across the region.
It
will not take much of a thunderstorm to produce small hail. If
thunderstorms
strengthen enough, isolated large hail and wind damage is possible over
the
region. The main difference from today as opposed to yesterday is that
their
may be a Cap to overcome per the NWS Albany discussion where
thunderstorms
would have to break through the mid-levels to form and intensify. This
was
not present yesterday.

Similiar to yesterday, conditions will have to be monitored carefully.
Conditions deteroriated rapidly yesterday afternoon as sun, instability
and
a triggering mechanism all took shape at the right time and caused a
widespread marginal severe weather event across the region. Conditions
will
have to be monitored for a similiar threat today.

This will be the only email on this event. Pages will be sent as needed
to
update the threat.

Below is the NWS Taunton AFD that discusses the threat for today:

FXUS61 KBOX 170743 CCA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2002

SFC LOW PRES REMAINS CENTERED IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  LOW PRESSURE ALOFT NEARLY
OVERHEAD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.  ONE S/W IS
MOVING ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED RW...ANOTHER
IS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE WRN/CNTRL GRT LAKES.   SAT PIX SHOW MOST CLOUDS MOVING ENE
ALONG AND N OF A MSV-PSF-MHT LINE.  SFC OBS SHOW NMRS REPORTS OF
SKCLR...ALSO LIGHT WINDS WHICH COMBINED WITH WET GROUND FROM SUNDAY/S
RAINFALL MEANS MANY FOGGY AREAS AROUND THE F/A...AND A FEW SPOTS SUCH
AS BDL-BAF ARE AT 1/4 MILE (F+).

WITH LTL/NO CLDS ABOVE THE FOG...EXPECT IT TO HAVE NO TROUBLE
BURNING OFF THIS MORNING.  PROBLEM OF THE PACKAGE DEALS WITH
LINGERING UPPER TROF OVER NE US AND RESULTING PROSPECTS FOR
CONVECTION EACH DAY.

WAS NOT SURPRISED TO SEE TRW AND HAIL REPORTS FROM SUN AFTN/EVE...
BUT WAS SURPRISED BY NUMBER OF 0.75 INCH (BORDERLINE SEVERE) HAIL
AND TREES/POWER LINES DOWN.  THE "NUMBERS" WERE GOOD...BUT NOT THAT
GOOD.  THE COLD POOL WILL STILL BE AROUND TODAY.  WHILE T500 OVER
SRN NEW ENGLAND IS FCST TO WARM THRU 18Z...A SECOND T500 MINIMUM
MOVES ACRS NYS 18Z-00Z.  THIS CAA DROPS THE T500 OVER US BY 3-4C
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS JUST AS WE ARE
SOLAR HEATING FROM BELOW.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE TQ INDEX IS FCST
BACK INTO THE LOW 20S (AS YESTERDAY) WITH LOWEST VALUES NW OF A BOS-
IJD LINE.  MAX CAPES ONLY CLIMB TO 450-650 J.  H850 WINDS AT 15
KTS...H500 AT 45 KTS.  H500 JET MAX SHOOTS ACRS MID ATLC STATES
THIS AFTN...SO ARGUABLY WE ARE AT THE NOSE OR THE LF QUAD OF THIS
FEATURE MID-LATE AFTN.  WEAK DIFLUENCE AT H400.  WEAK THETAE RIDGE
ACRS WRN MASS/SW NH AT 18Z.  WET BULB ZERO AT 7000-7200 FT.  EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RW/TRW.  AGAIN AS WITH YESTERDAY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL.  HOPEFULLY NOT QUITE LIKE YESTERDAY.

S/W IN GREAT LAKES SWINGS THRU NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z...WL GO WITH
CONTINUED CHC RW AS IT DOES SO.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP OVERNIGHT AND BY TUES EVOLVES INTO POS TILT
TROF.  S/W ENERGY FEEDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TUES WITH COLD POOL STILL
ACROSS VT/NH/MAINE.  SITUATION NOT AS HELPFUL FOR CONVECTION AS
YESTERDAY/TODAY...BUT STILL ENUF TO SUPPORT MENTIONING RW/TRW N AND
W OF BOSTON TMW AFTN/EVE.

LONGER RANGE...UPPER TROF HAS ONE MORE S/W AND ONE MORE SHOT OF PVA
COMING THRU WED.  ENUF COLD AIR ALOFT AND HEATING BELOW TO GO WITH
ONE MORE FCST OF CHC RW/TRW.  HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FOR DRIER
WEATHER THURS/FRI.

AVN SAYS "STOP ME BEFORE I KILL AGAIN"...SORT OF... BY TAKING
WEDNESDAY/S SHORTWAVE AND DIGGING IT INTO THE DEPARTING TROF...
STALLING IT AND CUTTING IT OFF JUST OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE WEEK.  SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR FUTURE PACKAGES.

MARINE...SEAS STILL RIDING HIGH ON THE OUTER WATERS...WILL KEEP
CRAFTIES UP THIS MORNING.  WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AND EXPECT
SEAS WILL DROP BELOW THE THRESHOLD LATER THIS MORNING.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ANZ254-255  PVC TO ACK TO MTP.
$$

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: [email protected]
http://www.ultranet.com/~rmacedo

And Thankyou, 
Eric   N1QKO

________________________________________________________________
GET INTERNET ACCESS FROM JUNO!
Juno offers FREE or PREMIUM Internet access for less!
Join Juno today!  For your FREE software, visit:
http://dl.www.juno.com/get/web/.