[HCRA] Poss. t-storm for tues

[eric w Tuller]

Hello to all...

...Slight Risk for Severe Weather Across All of Southern New England for
Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the
Primary
Threats. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton Possible on
Tuesday...

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southern New England in a
Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Tuesday. Damaging Winds and Large Hail
will be the primary threats. Warm and humid conditions will increase
across
the area today into Tuesday. A Cold Front will then approach the region
from
the west on Tuesday. Instability parameters will be reasonable across the
area for Severe Weather. Mid-level wind shear will increase to 40-50
Knots
which will be high enough to produce severe weather. This should be
enough
to produce a line of strong and severe thunderstorms with large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats. SPC has all of Southern New England
in a
15% risk for severe weather for Tuesday.

Key point to be understood would be a Mid-level Cap seen on one model
sounding. This could help to reduce the severe threat. This will have to
be
watched in later outlooks to see if it mitigates the threat of if it
eventually disappears with cooling air aloft as the front approaches.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will be possible in the
mid-afternoon through early evening hours on Tuesday.

The next message will be sent by 11:30 PM.

Below is the Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Area Forecast
Discussion:

   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   30 NE SBY 45 W NHK 40 NNW LYH 15 ENE 5I3 65 W LOZ 20 NE BWG
   15 SSE OWB 40 NNE EVV 55 SE IND DAY 25 NNW ZZV 35 SSE FKL
   20 SSE ELM 20 SSE GFL 15 SSE MWN 25 SSE 3B1 10 SSW HUL.

   THERE IS ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 SSW REJ 30 SSW DIK 20 N BIS 30 E JMS 40 WSW AXN 30 ESE BKX
   35 N SUX 30 E ANW 25 ENE AIA 25 WSW CDR 40 SSW REJ.

   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW 7R4 20 N BTR
   45 SSE GLH 30 WSW TXK 40 S SPS 20 E SJT 20 SE DRT ...CONT...
   75 SSW GBN 10 NNE GBN 10 SE FLG 35 WSW CEZ MTJ 20 W EGE 45 NNW CAG
   50 WNW RKS 45 S BYI BAM 10 NW RNO 55 E UKI 45 E ACV 45 NNW MFR
   20 ENE SLE 25 SSE GEG 10 SW FCA 35 NW CTB ...CONT... 10 E MQT
   20 S IMT 40 SE CWA 15 SSE JVL 40 S CGX 20 SSE TOL 25 NNE YNG
   40 ENE ROC 20 NNW PBG.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   AND THE NERN U.S. RESULTING IN WNWLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NRN TIER
   OF STATES.  MEANWHILE...STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND E-W
   ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.  COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE NWRN EDGES
   OF NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING SWWD THRU THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO OK AT
   THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
   SEWD/SWD THRU THE NERN U.S. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   BECOMING MORE STATIONARY FROM LONG ISLAND SWWD INTO NRN TX BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.

   ...NERN U.S. INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOST OF ITS FORCING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS
   MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 70 KT AND 90-100 KT RESPECTIVELY EXTENDS
   NEWD THRU SRN QUEBEC.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO
   PARALLEL THE FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR
   ACROSS THE REGION.  AIR MASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT WITH CAPE TO 2000 J/KG MAINLY OVER SRN AREAS OF NEW
   ENGLAND...AND TO 3000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
   LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
   THE ADVANCING FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  MAIN
   THREAT LOOKS TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.

   ..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/02

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z

FXUS61 KBOX 220738
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

LINE OF MID-HIGH CLDS OVR NYS INTO WRN NEW ENG EARLY THIS MRNG AS
SEEN ON IR STLT.  ANOTHER TSTM COMPLEX OVR NRN GRT LKS INTO SRN
ONTARIO XPTCD TO MOV E...WTH MOST OF DEBRIS CLDS INTO NRN NEW ENG
THIS MRNG/AFTN.  SOME WL PROB SNEAK INTO SRN NH/NRN MA.  CAN SEE
SOME LWR CLDS OVR OCN ON 3.9 UM IR CHANNEL...MNLY FM NR KACK ALNG S
CST TO ERN LI.  LWR CLDS HV BEEN DVLPG ACRS ERN/SRN SXNS...MNLY ALNG
S CST AND INTR CT.  CLD LVL AOB 2K FT.  SOMEWHAT WIDER TEMP/DP
SPREADS AS COMPARED TO LAST FEW NIGHTS...SO NOT XPCTG A WIDESPREAD
PROB WTH FOG...MAY BE A FEW SPOTS ARND SUNRISE.

SHORT TERM...UPR LVL FEATURES ON ETA/AVN QUITE SIMILAR THRU 60 HRS...
THO AT SFC APPEARS THAT AVN CONTS TO BE A BIT FASTER MOVG CFNT ACRS
NEW ENG ON TUE/TUE NIGHT.  H5 PTTN STARTS OFF ZONAL...THEN A BROAD
TROF DIGS OUT OVR ERN CANADA LATER TDY-ERLY WED...PUSHING INTO NRN
NEW ENG TUE-WED.  UPR LVL RDGG BLDS OVR WRN U.S.

FOR TDY...XPCT SOME MID CLDS TO WORK ACRS RGN...MNLY IN THE AFTN FOR
CNTRL AND NRN AREAS FM DEBRIS CRNTLY ACRS CNTRL/WRN NY WTH SRN PTN
OF MCS.  WL GO WTH PTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE.  WL TAKE OUT MNTN OF CHC
SWRS/TSTMS FOR THIS AFTN.  WTH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...FWC/MAV MOS
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS LWR THAN PREV FCST...AND LACK OF DYMANICS...DO
NOT FEEL ACTIVITY WL DVLP.  MAY SEE ISOLD CONV AFT 18Z.

TNGT...XPCT CLDS TO MOV IN AHD OF CFNT.  AVN TRIES TO BRNG PCPN
INTO NRN SXNS AFT 06Z...WHILE ETA KEEPS PCPN OUT TIL AFT 15Z.  WL
KEEP PCPN OUT FOR NOW AND LEAN TWD FWC POPS.

TUE...PREFER THE ETA TIMING BUT FEEL A BIT OVERDONE WTH SVR WX
PARAMETERS.  MDLS...ESP THE ETA...HV BEEN RUNNING HIER THAN
VERIFICATION ON DAYTIME DEWPTS...WHICH WOULD OVERDO AT LEAST THE
CAPES.  DO FEEL THERE WILL BE CONVECTION FOR SURE...AND EVEN A RISK
OF SVR AS SUGGESTED BY SPC.  AVN HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON DYNAMICS AS
WELL...THO NOT AS DRAMATIC AS ETA.  DO HV CONCERNS WTH CAPPED MID
LVL AMS AS SEEN ON ETA BUFKIT.  WL USE BLEND OF ETA/AVN FOR THIS
PD...AND GO WTH LKLY POPS FOR MNLY AFTN PD.  WIDE DIFF BTWN FWC AND
MAV FOR TEMPS...WL GO BTWN TEMPS...LEANING TWD WRMR FWC WTH GOOD SW
FLOW.

MID RANGE (TUE NIGHT-THU)...FNT TENDS TO SLOW DOWN OVR RGN ON ETA...
BUT AVN KEEPS PLUGGING IT THRU TUE NIGHT.  WL KEEP CHC SWRS/TSTMS
GOING FOR THIS PD...ESP FM MASS PIKE SRD.  WL MNTN LKLY FOR ERLY TUE
NIGHT IN CNTRL/SRN ZNS.

WED...HIGH BLDS ACRS ONT/QUEBEC AS UPR FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN.  CFNT
FINALLY CLRS CST...BUT AVN POPS KEEP GOOD CHC GOING FOR S CST.  WL
KEEP MNTN OF SWRS AND MAYBE TSTMS THERE AT LEAST THRU THE MRNG.  WL
BE MCH COOLER WTH N-NE WNDS.

WED NIGHT/THU...HIGH PRES RMNS IN CONTROL AS FNT STALLS ACRS MID
ATLC STATES AND S OF THE WATERS.  WL KEEP TEMPS ON COOL SIDE WTH
CONTD NE-E FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE LOW CLDS/FOG AGAIN THO WL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.  WL PROB GO WTH PTLY CLDY.

MARINE...WL GO FOR SCA TYPE WINDS ALNG THE COAST WHERE AFT HEATING
SHLD ALLOW THE 25 KTS OF WND ARND H950 TO MIX DOWN. FURTHER
OFFSHORE...LL INVRSN SHLD PRVNT STRNGR WNDS FM MIXG.  WNDS DMSH
A BIT TNGT AS LL INVRSN FORMS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH GRDNT SHLD KEEP WNDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 RANGE.  FOR TUE...SCA MAYBE NEEDED ALL WATERS AS
TIGHT GRDNT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRNT COMBINES WITH UNUSALLY STRNG LL
WIND OF 30-40 KTS ABV H95.  WL PRBLY NOT MIX DOWN ALL THAT WIND...
BUT SHLD SE AT LEAST 25 KTS.  COLD FRNT GOES THRU THE WATERS LATE TUE
AND TUE NGT AND STALLS ACRS OR JUST S OF THE WATERS WED.
WED-FRI...NOT VERY SUMMER LIKE AS STRNG HIGH PRES TO BUILD ACRSS ERN
CANANDA. THE HIGH COMBINES WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES MVG NE ALNG THE
FRNT...TO BRING US PRDS OF SCA TYPE NE WINDS.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA THIS AFTN...BOS HARBOR-NARRA BAY-SOUTH COAST BAYS AND
SOUNDS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED RMNDR OF THE WATERS FOR TUE.

$$

EVT/JN

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@pop.ma.ultranet.com
http://www.ultranet.com/~rmacedo





Eric N1QKO


________________________________________________________________
GET INTERNET ACCESS FROM JUNO!
Juno offers FREE or PREMIUM Internet access for less!
Join Juno today!  For your FREE software, visit:
http://dl.www.juno.com/get/web/.