[HCARC] More Solar Minima Data

[Gary and Arlene Johnson]

Well Kerry, something is happening to he weather and it sure as heck isn't Global Warming and yes I do believe it is cyclical and the cycle seems to be saying that the number of sunspots is no where as close to what they (whomever "They" are) were predicting.  True to form they are grasping at straws to explain things up to and including saying that what we really are experiencing is a "Double Maxima" (because one other time in recorded history one of those occured I guess).  Anyway a lot of solar scientists including the Russians (who have a lot to lose if cooling occurs) seem to agree that the sun is in a "reduced output" period and have concluded we should at least be getting prepared for that eventuality.  From the radio point of view, "getting ready" is as simple as helping club members to figure out how to better utilize the lower frequency bands.  Those bands seem to have some special peculiarities such as noise and how to deal with it.  Better I learn how to operate in that environment now, than later.    How can that be bad, other than having more people on those wavelengths??  To me, knowledge is power and I prefer to have both myself and my friends having as much "power (knowledge)" as possible.  John Heucksteadt uses a Beverage Antenna to hear on 160, Dale Gaudier uses an Array from Array Solutions for the same thing - both help them to hear faint signals in a noisy environment.  John's antenna stretches across his acreage, Dale's requires a circle approx 60 feet in diameter and allows him to change the direction he is listening to.  Given enough room we all can build dipoles for 80 and 160 - but are there equally good transmitting antennas for people who are space challenged??  

I can't control the weather, can't control the idiots who want to start wars in the name of religion or whatever else, can't control massive solar storms which could screw up the electrical grid, can't control a sun which might change the upper atmosphere in a way that changes which frequencies work at a paicular time, but I can control my ability to respond to any of these possibilities.  I guess, yes I am a prepper with way too much time on my hands.  Mostly, I am just a person trying to improve my knowledge in order to be ready for whatever is thrown my way.

Gary J
N5BAA
HCARC Secretary 2013



----- Original Message ----- 
  From: SARA SANDSTROM 
  To: Gary and Arlene Johnson 
  Cc: hcarc at mailman.qth.net 
  Sent: Friday, September 20, 2013 3:06 PM
  Subject: Re: [HCARC] More Solar Minima Data


  Hi Gary,



  Yes it does get me stirred up!  Back in the late 60's and 70's the discussion was we may never see another sunspot in our lifetime.  The solar cycle was dying and we're at the start of another Maunder minimum.  Guess what?  We have had several quite good solar cycles since then.  People didn't have a clue what they were talking about back then and I don't believe they do now.  Its no different now.  People have been trying to make the connection between the earth's climate and sunspots for decades.  The link if it exists seems very tenuous.  During the Maunder minimum, the weather in Europe was much colder than it is now, ie. the Thames froze over at London.  Some people believe there is a connection, but the evidence is slight.  One scientist back in the 70's was able to track ancient solar cycles through the growth rings of very old bristle cone pines.  Interesting but at this point not very useful for predicting climate change.



  Perhaps you don't realize how new this science is.  We take it for granted that we've always known how the sun influences the earth.  This is not true.  When it comes to the sun's influence on the earth's ionosphere and geomagnetic field, the field is quite new.  One of the first scientific papers that attrempted to tie solar flares to sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID) was by J.H. Dellinger in 1937.  In his paper he was able to show that propagation paths through the sunlit side of the ionosphere were affected by a large flare.  The signals experienced a short wave fade (SWF) as well as other types of SID's.  I believe that at one time it was called the 'Dellinger Effect'.  While 1937 is not exactly during our lifetime, it is certainly real close.



  Perhaps you are familiar with the 10.7 cm or 2800 MHz solar flux measurements.  I have a copy of this data back to the first measurements in 1947.  Now this is one of the fundamental measurements routinely made of the sun.  In 1947, it was just an experiment.  In the first days, you can tell that measurements weren't made on weekends or holidays or when the equipment was down.  Its signifigance wasn't known.  It didn't take but a month or two before the signifigance of these measurements was realized and they haven't missd a day since.



  The first measurements of x-rays from the sun were made from instrumented rockets that were able to carry x-ray detectors above the atmosphere where the x-rays could actually be detected.  These flights provided mere seconds of x-ray data.  This was in the late 1940's.



  Now we have nearly contiuous coverage of the sun from the HF spectrum through the x-ray and gamma ray spectrum as well as charged particles of various energies.  We have sensors in geostationary earth orbit making these measurements.  We also have satellites in polar orbit around the sun and spread out along the earth's orbit around the sun.  Modern measurements of the sun only go back to the 1940's.  A big push was made during the IGY years of 1957-8.  As time as passed we have been able to add to the measurements we make using satellites which really didn't exist before the 1960's.



  Bottom Line:  We have about 30 years of good data on the sun along with some data going back about 60 years.  Before that we only have observable sunspot data and some data on auroras.  With this meager amount of data we are trying to predict cycles which vary from 22 years to as much as several hundred years.  When you look at it seriously, we barely have one 22-year cycle of good data.  We have numerous theories which attempt to predict how sunspots are produced and how they behave and how they may be tied into the overall operation of the sun, but they are still theories.  We have people trying to predict the frequency of major geomagnetic storms, x-ray bursts, and now the sun's long term effects on climate.  What you are seeing are just guesses.  Each guess will develop its own following, perhaps you've noticed.  Why does a scientist (or group thereof ) make a wild guess?  To get government funding!  That is our money they are squandering on some of those wild guesses.



  Anyway, take what you read on the internet with a lot of grains of salt.  Most of it has nothing to do with reality.



  Kerry











  From: "Gary and Arlene Johnson" <qltfnish at omniglobal.net>
  To: "SARA SANDSTROM" <kerryk5ks at hughes.net>
  Cc: hcarc at mailman.qth.net
  Sent: Friday, September 20, 2013 1:05:35 PM
  Subject: Re: [HCARC] More Solar Minima Data

   

  Welcome on such a rainy day Kerry,

  Yes I know that we are at supposedly the SOLAR MAXIMUM, but as the article says it is a pretty weak Maximum and much more like a minimum.  That said, the worry is that we won't see much more than a minimum (you can't have negative sunspots) for quite a while to come, even the solar scientists are grabbing at the straw of a double maximum to explain the unexplainable lack of solar activity.  Estimates for the solar minimum which is coming is for a quieting sun with virtually zero sunspots until the late 2020's to the 2050's - long after most of us are gone.  Heck, I am one of the younger Hams in our club and I am 64.  2030 is 16 years off and that makes me 80.  One thing for certain is that the Club should be thinking ahead and trying to get either Tech Corners or the Regular Presentations about antennas, listening antennas, etc for the lower frequncy bands (40-160) as they will become the bands of choice.  Yes, I know there will always be some openings on 20, 15,and 10, but the higher frequencies will only become harder and harder to work.  I liken it to Don's T-shirt he wore at the last meeting - "Good DX".  I think it is more "DX IS".  DX IS where you find it - call CQ, you might be surprised who answers.

  The article I posted in itself does not talk about Radio Propagation, more it concerns itself with Global Warming vs Global Cooling.  Clearly Global Cooling is the much worse scenario.  If the world lost the food growing capability of the Northern US states, all of Canada, most of Russia and Northern Europe, the Northern provinces of China and good parts of Japan, the last things we would be worrying about is which Ham Radio Bands are allowing propagation.  That said in an increasingly unstable world Ham radio would be increasingly valuable.

  If this kind of Reflector Posting gets you stirred up, just imagine the kinds of things I can stir up if/when I take over publishing the Static from Bob Ritchie.  At least I post things to the Reflector - it's not like the Reflector is suffering from overuse.

  Gary J
  N5BAA
  HCARC Seccretary 2013
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: SARA SANDSTROM 
    To: Gary and Arlene Johnson 
    Cc: hcarc at mailman.qth.net 
    Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2013 9:01 PM
    Subject: Re: [HCARC] More Solar Minima Data


    Well Gary,



    You keep sending stuff that I can't let go.  First, we are not at solar minima.  We may be near a very weak maximum, but we are definitely not at a solar minimum.



    Sunspot counts are only one way of detecting solar minimum and solar maximum.  Unfortunately, it isn't a particularly good one.  It is primarily useful because of the length of historical records.  Other ways are from the sun's magnetic fields, distribution of the sunspots over the surface of the sun, and flare acvtivity.  By the way, there are often sunspots from both the new and old cycle present near solar minimum.  You can tell which cycle spots belong to by the magnetic polarity of the leading spot in a group and its heliographic latitiude.  Near solar max, the sunspot groups are somewhat symmettrical accross the solar equator, that is a group in the north and a group in the south will have the same longitude and opposite latitudes.



    There are several factors that affect the impact of a flare on the earth.  First, the flare has to be at the right lattitude to intercept the earth.  Second, The charged particles from a flare follow a curved path due to the solar wind and the solar magnetic field and their velocity.  The flare has to occur at the correct solar longitude so that it will hit the earth.  Third, it has to have the correct mix of EM radiation (mainly X-rays) and charged particles to affect the earth.  The EM radiation arrives first and is resonsible for absorption and SWF (Short Wave Fade).  The charged particles arrive hours to days later and are the cause of the magnetic storm.  Since they follow different paths you don't get all effects from every flare.  Some large flares have almost no effect on the earth.



    Bottom line, I think that short item you sent out is nonsense.



    Real Bottom Line, rather than wringing his hands over the lack of sunspots, a real ham prepares his station for the expected coming conditions.  These preparation include improving low HF and MF systems to take advantage of the low MUF as well as the low absorption that come with low sunspot numbers.  They also include being sure you understand how to recognize when there is a momentary increase in sunspots and the frequencies, times and directions you should be looking at to take advantage of these momentary improvements.  Finally, you need to recognize when a geomagnetic storm is in progress and how that effects propagation and the frequencies, times and directions you should concentrate on to take advantage of any unusual propagation conditions.



    One word of advice:  If you think your favorite web sites will clue you in - DON'T.  This is something you need to do yourself.  By the way, your freinds (and enemies) will be amazed if you work something unusual on what they believe is a dead band.  You can do it!  True story - Several years ago there was an excellent operator with a well set up station in San Antonio.  He was one of the early users of trans-equatorial propagation on 6 meters in the (I believe) late 1940's.  He would get on evenings and works Central and South Americans to his hearts content.  Naturally this was reported to the ARRL who said send us your QSL's so we can decide wether we believe you or not.  I don't believe he ever sent the QSL's to the league and went on working DX on 6 to his hearts content by himself.  Moral:  Just because someone says its impossible, doesn't make it so.  People who know what they are doing can work the impossible.  That should be every ham's goal.



    Kerry



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