[HCARC] More Solar Minima Data

[Gary and Arlene Johnson]

Welcome on such a rainy day Kerry,

Yes I know that we are at supposedly the SOLAR MAXIMUM, but as the article says it is a pretty weak Maximum and much more like a minimum.  That said, the worry is that we won't see much more than a minimum (you can't have negative sunspots) for quite a while to come, even the solar scientists are grabbing at the straw of a double maximum to explain the unexplainable lack of solar activity.  Estimates for the solar minimum which is coming is for a quieting sun with virtually zero sunspots until the late 2020's to the 2050's - long after most of us are gone.  Heck, I am one of the younger Hams in our club and I am 64.  2030 is 16 years off and that makes me 80.  One thing for certain is that the Club should be thinking ahead and trying to get either Tech Corners or the Regular Presentations about antennas, listening antennas, etc for the lower frequncy bands (40-160) as they will become the bands of choice.  Yes, I know there will always be some openings on 20, 15,and 10, but the higher frequencies will only become harder and harder to work.  I liken it to Don's T-shirt he wore at the last meeting - "Good DX".  I think it is more "DX IS".  DX IS where you find it - call CQ, you might be surprised who answers.

The article I posted in itself does not talk about Radio Propagation, more it concerns itself with Global Warming vs Global Cooling.  Clearly Global Cooling is the much worse scenario.  If the world lost the food growing capability of the Northern US states, all of Canada, most of Russia and Northern Europe, the Northern provinces of China and good parts of Japan, the last things we would be worrying about is which Ham Radio Bands are allowing propagation.  That said in an increasingly unstable world Ham radio would be increasingly valuable.

If this kind of Reflector Posting gets you stirred up, just imagine the kinds of things I can stir up if/when I take over publishing the Static from Bob Ritchie.  At least I post things to the Reflector - it's not like the Reflector is suffering from overuse.

Gary J
N5BAA
HCARC Seccretary 2013
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: SARA SANDSTROM 
  To: Gary and Arlene Johnson 
  Cc: hcarc at mailman.qth.net 
  Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2013 9:01 PM
  Subject: Re: [HCARC] More Solar Minima Data


  Well Gary,



  You keep sending stuff that I can't let go.  First, we are not at solar minima.  We may be near a very weak maximum, but we are definitely not at a solar minimum.



  Sunspot counts are only one way of detecting solar minimum and solar maximum.  Unfortunately, it isn't a particularly good one.  It is primarily useful because of the length of historical records.  Other ways are from the sun's magnetic fields, distribution of the sunspots over the surface of the sun, and flare acvtivity.  By the way, there are often sunspots from both the new and old cycle present near solar minimum.  You can tell which cycle spots belong to by the magnetic polarity of the leading spot in a group and its heliographic latitiude.  Near solar max, the sunspot groups are somewhat symmettrical accross the solar equator, that is a group in the north and a group in the south will have the same longitude and opposite latitudes.



  There are several factors that affect the impact of a flare on the earth.  First, the flare has to be at the right lattitude to intercept the earth.  Second, The charged particles from a flare follow a curved path due to the solar wind and the solar magnetic field and their velocity.  The flare has to occur at the correct solar longitude so that it will hit the earth.  Third, it has to have the correct mix of EM radiation (mainly X-rays) and charged particles to affect the earth.  The EM radiation arrives first and is resonsible for absorption and SWF (Short Wave Fade).  The charged particles arrive hours to days later and are the cause of the magnetic storm.  Since they follow different paths you don't get all effects from every flare.  Some large flares have almost no effect on the earth.



  Bottom line, I think that short item you sent out is nonsense.



  Real Bottom Line, rather than wringing his hands over the lack of sunspots, a real ham prepares his station for the expected coming conditions.  These preparation include improving low HF and MF systems to take advantage of the low MUF as well as the low absorption that come with low sunspot numbers.  They also include being sure you understand how to recognize when there is a momentary increase in sunspots and the frequencies, times and directions you should be looking at to take advantage of these momentary improvements.  Finally, you need to recognize when a geomagnetic storm is in progress and how that effects propagation and the frequencies, times and directions you should concentrate on to take advantage of any unusual propagation conditions.



  One word of advice:  If you think your favorite web sites will clue you in - DON'T.  This is something you need to do yourself.  By the way, your freinds (and enemies) will be amazed if you work something unusual on what they believe is a dead band.  You can do it!  True story - Several years ago there was an excellent operator with a well set up station in San Antonio.  He was one of the early users of trans-equatorial propagation on 6 meters in the (I believe) late 1940's.  He would get on evenings and works Central and South Americans to his hearts content.  Naturally this was reported to the ARRL who said send us your QSL's so we can decide wether we believe you or not.  I don't believe he ever sent the QSL's to the league and went on working DX on 6 to his hearts content by himself.  Moral:  Just because someone says its impossible, doesn't make it so.  People who know what they are doing can work the impossible.  That should be every ham's goal.



  Kerry



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