[Hallicrafters] Re: Investing nonsense

[Todd, KA1KAQ]

On 11/30/06, kiyoinc at attglobal.net <kiyoinc at attglobal.net> wrote:

> Pivot items.  Tubes will never appear in wide use again.  A fanatical
> but small interest group. The military-spy connection.  The "dieing"
> time of the 1970's and '80's when 'anchors went to the landfill.

Key word here being 'small'. Fanatical, sure - but if supply outpaces
demand, then even a small group gets to pick and choose and pretty
much pay the price they want. No differently than gas prices or
anything else. Unless everyone signs an agreement to keep prices high
(not likely), owners who want to move the stuff for 'something' will
stick a price on it and be done with it.

> If boatanchors bust out of their niche, it'll be Katy-bar-the-door.

They actually did, maybe 10 years back.

> "The 32S-3 in the dry nitrogen filled glass case is representative of a
> MARS station operating in Saigon during the Viet Nam War."
>
> "We see a fine example of a KWM-2, in a simulated embassy setting, the
> papers next to it show encrypted messages for the U.S. Ambassador to the
> former Soviet Union."

Again, you're imagining a huge demand that is very unlikely to exist.
For someone to be interested, they generally need to have some history
or interest in the basic, core of the matter: radio. Just look at
99.9% of the folks in the world. They want the utility, not
necessarily the item. iPods, cellphones, satellite receivers, and so
on. The golden age of radio is long gone. It's been replaced with
newer technology that uses only the principal of being wireless. With
no exposure to the rest, how will there be a new interest cultivated,
beyond the possible interest in history artifacts for display
purposes?

> "Southby's is pleased to offer this SX-115; starting at, $100,000.  Yes?
> 100. 150. Madam? 200 ..."

What did you say you were smoking?

> My fear is that yup-boom investor types will discover 'anchors; I would
> be priced out of my hobby.

They did. It happened a few years ago with the help or ebay. Prices
went "through the roof" according to most folks, based on the features
and actual useful utility. $3K KWM-2As and so on. Now you see most
selling in the $500-$800 realm with only very clean, late models
bringing more. They're just too common. Also many of the speculators
are now starting to dump their goodies in hopes of getting the old
prices of 4-5 years ago.

> I assured him that it would not be "tossed".  A Hallicrafters SX-100.

A pretty mediocre set, made in pretty good numbers. Clean examples
still bring some money. Nothing like an equally-clean SX-28, SX-73, or
SX-88. And a perfect example of the 'now' of old ham gear. Had you not
taken it, the landfill would have. How many times a day do you think
this happens in other places, where no one with an interest happens to
see the listing?

> As we've discussed, 'anchors have barely kept up with inflation.  That
> seems to put a floor under the price.

Or more likely, shows that demand remained pretty constant. Other than
the big spike a few years back created when former JNs could afford to
buy the gear they always wanted as kids. What else could possibly
cause a receiver like the S-38 to command hundreds of dollars? Made in
the thousands with a similar layout to the Catalin AA5 sets. Utility?
Quality? Or that warm, fuzzy feeling of years gone by? And therein
lies the problem: there's no wave of youngsters coming along who grew
up with the fond memories we have of this stuff. They'll want the C-64
computers, early cell phones, and Sony Walkman tape players. And oddly
- these will likely be more difficult to find, since technology
accelerated so fast, and we became a disposable society in the
process.

> Where things go from here?  Who knows.  'Anchors could bust out or might
> go dormant for another 20, 30 years.

And ceramic pigs might fly, too....

There is no doubt that there will always be some attraction to old
technology. Collectors will always exist It just won't be the
comparatively large attraction it is today with a larger number of
users involved. Just look at what's already happening in the rest of
the world with respect to ownership and use. A large number will lose
interest if not able to play with their toys.

And most likely, far fewer examples will be of interest. The R-390s,
SX-88s, SX-28s and so on will always have some following as examples
of a specific niche in the world of radio. But the pickings will be
far greater than the demand as we kick off.

~ Todd,  KA1KAQ