[FLARES] **ECOMM MESSAGE 09/22/04-J-B

[Chris Myers]

INDIAN RIVER COUNTY, FLORIDA
AUXILIARY COMMUNICATIONS SERVICE
A Citizen Corps Group

**ECOMM MESSAGE**

The Indian River County Division of Emergency Management, Auxiliary
Communication Services is at Level One Alert as of 12:00 hours Wednesday,
September 15th, 2004.

  Level One Alert: Computer Models Indicate A Possible Threat to the
Operation Area
 Continue Monitoring


Auxiliary Communication Services {ACS} Status:
09/15/04 12:00hrs    Alert Level 1 ACS staff
      Continue Monitoring

09/22/04 12:00hrs    Alert Level 1 ACS staff
      Continue Monitoring

begin notification of key staff
ESF-2 Coordinators and Officer please send you next SITREP by 09/23/04
15:00hrs local.
Mission packages in the operation area:
Status Pending additional weather Intel.

Manpower Status:
Total ACS count “00”.
ARES    “00”
CAP      “00”
MARS  “00”
Other    “00”

  Radio Operator matrix
  “00” Amateur License
  “00” County A/B-CUT License
  “00” FCC License
  “00” NTIA License

Mutual Aid Request:
No request for Mutual Aid has been sent or received at this time.


County Emergency Operation Center Status:
EOC has not been activated at this time.

Support Equipment:
Mobile Tower unit
“Aluma Unit –1”  27ft Trailer, 100ft tower, Guy system  NO Trailer lights.
HV/VHF/UHF antennas and cable.
**DEPLOYED** To Fort Pierce on September 7 for Frances recover.

Mobile Tower and generator unit
“DCAT COMM-2”  25ft Trailer, 50ft tower, Guy system, HF/VHF/UHF/800 antennas
and cable, 10Kw genset with cable.
**Down for Repair** Generator in repair shop
 possible pickup on Friday.

Communication Data:
Duplex Operation
TCWN/SKYWARN Net operations on 146.775MHz, No CTCSS, call KA1VRF
ACS Planning/operations 153.920MHz Toned; 444.825MHz, Toned, call ACS
Command
ARES Net operations 145.130MHz, No Tone, call WA4ASJ or W4RCL
Simplex Operation
DCAT Operations 30.760MHz as needed, Toned, call WPJN947/DCAT Command
ARES Shelter operation 146.640MHz, No Tone, call W4OT or Indian River County
EOC.


Christopher A. Myers, Coordinator
Indian River County Auxiliary Communication Services
EVENT INFORMATION:
** RELEASE INFORMATION FROM IRCEOC**
Hurricane Jeanne has started making the loop east of the Bahamas.  Jeanne is
now moving south at 3mph and a more southwest turn is expected soon.  Jeanne
continues to have sustained winds of 90mph with the possibility of some dry
air intruding later today.  This dry air may aid to weaken Jeanne as it
begins the move southwest.  I have attached the latest model runs and they
have finally come together as far as the loop movement.  The models that
suggested the trough would move Jeanne have all come around to the opinion
of the other models.  The trough has moved northeast of Jeanne and will not
have any impact on the steering of this storm.  Aircraft data and surface
observation systems are indicating that a high pressure ridge located over
the northern mid-west states is moving towards the east and is expected to
move over the Atlantic in 48-72 hours.  The clockwise rotation of the high
pressure will eventually turn Jeanne west and northwest, around the
circulation.  The big question is how far west will Jeanne move before
turning northwest.  This will depend on the expansion of the ridge as it
moves over the Atlantic.  Two good things have happened this morning.
First, the models are agreeing on a general direction which gives us more
confidence in the forecast.  Second, the ridge moving towards the Atlantic
gives us a clear steering current to monitor.  With this forecast, we will
need to monitor the wind field very closely.  Currently, the hurricane force
winds extend 45 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend
125 miles from the center.  Jeanne is approximately 650 miles from the east
coast of Florida.

The attached infrared picture shows a good convection pattern around Jeanne
with wind shear still impacting the northern outflow.  I have also attached
a DVORAK picture which tends to indicate strengthening.  While the infrared
does not look to impressive as far  strengthening, the DVORAK picture shows
a strong eye wall intensifying on the north and west side.  The water vapor
picture shows the trough moving northeast, away from Hurricane Jeanne.  You
can see a line of dry air approaching the southwest side of Jeanne.  This
dry air may impact the strengthening over the next 24 hours.  The National
Hurricane Center keeps Jeanne at hurricane strength for the duration of the
forecast.

Heavy surf, 6-8 foot seas, and beach erosion will be a concern as Jeanne
makes the turn.  Again, if you live or work in a coastal structure that may
have been undermined by Hurricane Frances, you should evaluate your building
and prepare appropriately.  The coastal impacts from Hurricane Jeanne will
continue for several days.  Boaters should be aware that conditions will be
hazardous with the increased seas created by Hurricane Jeanne.

I encourage everyone not to be fixed on the red line.  The wind field of
Hurricane Jeanne is what we should concentrate on over the next few days.
At this time, the wind field and the current forecast movement would not
impact Florida.  However, as you know, this forecast will change frequently
until the west turn occurs.

Tropical Storm Lisa is having some problems this morning.  The system is
moving west-northwest at 7mph.  Sustained winds have weakened slightly to
65mph.  Lisa remains a very compact storm, but this system is running into
problems.  First, the cloud pattern is a little elongated and that indicates
some shear being created by the circulation of Karl to the north.  Second,
and the bigger issue, is a strong tropical wave located about 100 miles
southeast of Lisa.  This tropical wave has a convection span much larger
than Tropical Storm Lisa and will likely become a tropical depression soon.
If a depression forms, Lisa will likely dissipate or be absorbed by the new
depression.  Tropical Storm Lisa has little chance of strengthening because
of shear from Karl to the north and inflow/outflows disruption caused by the
tropical wave to the southeast.  No matter what happens, whether we
eventually have two systems or one large system, the forecast will be the
same.  At this time, a general west-northwest motion is expected over the
next couple of days with a northwest turn later in the forecast period.
This forecast is dependant on a general weakness continuing in the ridge and
the ability of Lisa to find the weakness.  Again, Lisa is a long, long, way
from the United States and we have plenty of time to watch what happens.

The attached black and white infrared and visible satellite pictures show a
poorly organized system.  The entire pattern of Lisa looks in poor health.
The attached water vapor picture shows Karl moving to the north at a rapid
pace and the ridge weakness continuing ahead of Lisa.  Some of the models
still take Lisa west-northwest for several days, but most are suggesting
Lisa will find the weakness and head northwest in the next 48-72 hours.

In the meantime, it will be like Godzilla vs. King Kong, as we watch these
two tropical systems battle it out.  It is Mother Nature's version of
"Survivor".  The next advisory will be tomorrow (Thursday).

Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management
** END OF RELEASE**
ESF-2 REPORTS
ARES:

Bud Holman, Emergency Coordinator
Indian River County ARES
CAP:

Lt. Charles Shinn, Emergency Services Coordinator
SER-FL-078
SEDAN:

Tom Nolan, Coordinator
Florida SEDAN Project
SKYWARN:

Wayne Burkett, Coordinator
SKYWARN Program
SHARES:

Maj. Bill Rice, Radio Officer
MARS:

NNN0YGY/NNN0ILA, Radio Officer
USAF-MARS
REACT:

Michael Cauley, President
Florida Council of REACT Teams
County Communication Team:

John Conefrey, RRT Coordinator
Indian River County Auxiliary Communication Services
Florida State DCAT Equipment and Assets:
Unit ID                Status                  Location
Note
COMM-2   Off line             Vero Beach, FL
APRS         Standing-By    Vero Beach, FL

Next SITREP will be at 17:00hrs 09/23/04.

End of SITREP

Chris Myers, Coordinator
Indian River County Auxiliary Communication Services
Website: www.ircacs.org

A Public Service Organization Using Amateur, Public, and Private Radio
Communication.  Planning and preparing to keep the unexpected from being a
surprise!

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