[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 45

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 031500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003
 
..DRILL! HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FROM MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
ALSO AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
ARE IN EFFECT FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA.
 
AT 10 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. 

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY BRING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE WARNED AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...MAINLY TO THE EAST.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 12 FEET...LOCALLY TO 15 FEET IN
BAYS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

FLOODING RAINS ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED AND WILL
BECOME PARTICULARLY SEVERE IF WILFRED FORWARD MOTION DECREASES NEAR
LANDFALL AS IS NOW FORECAST. 

SMALL CRAFT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT.  SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.1 N... 85.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/031500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/031500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise