[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 44

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 030900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT MAY 03 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED CONTINUES WITH 105 MPH WINDS... 

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTHWARD.  THESE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE GRADUALLY DISCONTINUED
LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS
MORNING IN EXPECTATION OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE HURRICANE REACHING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS  974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 84.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 974 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/030900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/030900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise