[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A

Sun, 27 Apr 2003 02:00:01 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 270600
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM AST SUN APR 27 2003

..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILFRED HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD THROUGH ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM ANGUILLA TO PUERTO
RICO LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND FOR PUERTO RICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST.
LUCIA.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES ...535 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD AT 18 MPH...
30 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY.  HOWEVER...WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THESE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  WILFRED IS NOW SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND SIZE TO EXTREMELY
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IN
1989.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 56.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

LAWRENCE

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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270600m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270600.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise