[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 19

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 271500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT APR 26 2003
 
..DRILL! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILFRED HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD THROUGH ANGUILLA...EXCEPT FOR THE
FRENCH ISLAND OF ST. BARTHELEMY AND THE FRENCH PORTION OF ST.
MARTIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM
ANGUILLA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MARTINIQUE SOUTHWARD TO ST.
LUCIA...FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST. BARTHELEMY
..FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE
HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THOSE ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360
MILES ...580 KM...EAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILFRED HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE WEST.  A WEST
TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY.  HOWEVER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THOSE ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT WILFRED IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WILFRED IS NOW SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND
SIZE TO EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE HUGO WHEN IT HIT THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IN 1989.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN... ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.8 N... 55.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...SUNDAY.
 
MAYFIELD
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/270300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise